Russia Invades Ukraine. Volume 5

[spikeyhead]

It's for the Ukrainians to decide

[TheJimi]

spookly said:

TheJimi said:

Rumblestripe said:

isaldiri said:

Pistom said:

I don't see why Ukraine should give anything but the end needs a beginning.

The reality in the ground is that they don’t exactly seem able to retake significant ground to get back to 2022 borders nevermind 2014 so it’s as good as a lost cause. What are they losing to negotiate over the status of ground something they can’t realistically win back?

They remain in a defensive posture because it is an effective way to attrit the Russian forces.

Russian attacks are increasingly disjointed and improvised, things like trying to use dirt bikes to get their infantry through the "kill zone" of drones and artillery is a good case in point.

We've been taking the piss out of the Russians for months & years now, for various reasons - with the current schtick being the seemingly suicidal and futile dirtbike attacks. Rightly so, too; it's more than a bit ridiculous.

The flip side is that despite all that, the Ukrainians don't seem to be any further forward in getting to pre '22 borders and it doesn't look like that is going to change any time soon, if at all - unfortunately. Although I desperately want to see it.

So imo, isaldiri has a valid point above, as unpalatable as it is.

Edit: if I was a Ukrainian, I know that I almost certainly wouldn't be as pragmatic as this, and I'd be wanting to eviscerate every single Russian with my bare hands.

Edited by TheJimi on Saturday 6th July 13:18

I disagree. Why would the Ukrainian's make the same mistake as their failed summer offensive, and waste men and materiel trying to take back land, when they can sit back and let the russians lose huge volumes of men and equipment?

Ukraine is doing exactly what Ukraine needs to do. Be patient and only push if the opportunity arises. russia does not have unlimited men or equipment. Before too long they'll run out of tanks, IFVs, artillery pieces and barrels, cruise missiles, and will only have people if they start conscription again or find more poor foreign saps to come over.

Well, I very much hope history proves you to be right, and proves me to be overly pessimistic.

[off_again]

Digga said:

Rumblestripe said:

"Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake" Napoleon Bonaparte (IIRC)

Ukraine must conserve it's human resources so if the Russians keep piling into kill zones...

...crack on Vlad

100% this.

If, for the time being, Russia is hell bent on offering up so many of its human resources for target practice, then just deal with that. Attacking or re-taking ground now is not the priority.

Yup, agreed. There is no need to over commit Ukrainian capabilities at this point. They are proving that they can hold their own and are causing significant losses to the Russians, with limited impact on themselves. This isnt a last ditch attempt to keep the Russians from the door of the capital here, its maximizing the damage for Russia as much as possible.

And what we dont know is what Ukraine is planning. I dont suggest there is some massive counterattack, but the longer they have, the stronger they are.

[Cheib]

martynr said:

isaldiri said:

The reality in the ground is that they don’t exactly seem able to retake significant ground to get back to 2022 borders nevermind 2014 so it’s as good as a lost cause. What are they losing to negotiate over the status of ground something they can’t realistically win back?

You don't negotiate with a predator. The collective west and US have no plans of removing Vladolf and are afraid of anyone getting hands of what is left of WMDs. Them being more crazy than Vladolf and its only theoretical. Any advantage given to Ukrainians is always reduced to a minimum so not to "escalate" the situation. A very sad situation for all Ukrainians.

Agree. You don’t negotiate with someone that is going to keep to the terms of the agreement either.

Ukraine haven’t been able to take ground to get back to ‘22 borders because they haven’t been equipped by their ‘Western Partners” to do so. Whether it’s the engineering vehicles, long range missiles, jets, air defence, armoured vehicles or artillery ammunition to name but a few.

Maybe in the next 12 months Ukraine will have enough of the above to really be a threat to Russia, a Russia that it is predicted will be starting to run low on armoured vehicles and artillery by that stage. At some stage the amount of SAM 3/4/500 systems Russia is losing will surely start to have an impact in the next 12 months.

A good start would be enough Patriot systems to cover the major population centres and the front line….that’s an absolute necessity.

[martynr]

isaldiri said:

martynr said:

You don't negotiate with a predator. The collective west and US have no plans of removing Vladolf and are afraid of anyone getting hands of what is left of WMDs. Them being more crazy than Vladolf and its only theoretical. Any advantage given to Ukrainians is always reduced to a minimum so not to "escalate" the situation. A very sad situation for all Ukrainians.

Well I suppose my point is unpleasant or otherwise negotiation is, if it’s not so easy or sustainable for how the ukrainians to be sacrificing their people on the battlefield maintaining an active ‘hot’ conflict as the better option compared to a lower intensity one closer to 2014-2022 Donbas, they will have to. Neither side are ever going to expect either side to agree to any agreement long term anyway so it’s more about what one can currently maintain.

No. It is fking stupid and you keep pushing the same point over and over again.

[martynr]

spikeyhead said:

It's for the Ukrainians to decide

They have decided to beat the st out of Vladolf's red army. The sad thing is the collective west and US politicians don't want Ukraine to win nor Vladolf to get Ukraine.

[martynr]

Cheib said:

martynr said:

isaldiri said:

The reality in the ground is that they don’t exactly seem able to retake significant ground to get back to 2022 borders nevermind 2014 so it’s as good as a lost cause. What are they losing to negotiate over the status of ground something they can’t realistically win back?

You don't negotiate with a predator. The collective west and US have no plans of removing Vladolf and are afraid of anyone getting hands of what is left of WMDs. Them being more crazy than Vladolf and its only theoretical. Any advantage given to Ukrainians is always reduced to a minimum so not to "escalate" the situation. A very sad situation for all Ukrainians.

Agree. You don’t negotiate with someone that is going to keep to the terms of the agreement either.

Ukraine haven’t been able to take ground to get back to ‘22 borders because they haven’t been equipped by their ‘Western Partners” to do so. Whether it’s the engineering vehicles, long range missiles, jets, air defence, armoured vehicles or artillery ammunition to name but a few.

Maybe in the next 12 months Ukraine will have enough of the above to really be a threat to Russia, a Russia that it is predicted will be starting to run low on armoured vehicles and artillery by that stage. At some stage the amount of SAM 3/4/500 systems Russia is losing will surely start to have an impact in the next 12 months.

A good start would be enough Patriot systems to cover the major population centres and the front line….that’s an absolute necessity.

The NATO training soldiers with air superiority when there isn't one. So what kind of training is that? It is absolutely useless imho and I am not an expert. Rusky economy is on war rails so they are unlikely to run out of ammo.
Red army is also using this reconnaissance in force or force reconnaissance to reveal enemy positions by sending waves of troops. Clever...
https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%A0%D0%B0%D0%B7%D...

[hidetheelephants]

There's nothing clever about it.

[Cheib]

martynr said:

The NATO training soldiers with air superiority when there isn't one. So what kind of training is that? It is absolutely useless imho and I am not an expert. Rusky economy is on war rails so they are unlikely to run out of ammo.
Red army is also using this reconnaissance in force or force reconnaissance to reveal enemy positions by sending waves of troops. Clever...
https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%A0%D0%B0%D0%B7%D...

I think the issues about NATO training and prescribed methods of combat is fairly old news. Ukraine tried that in the summer offensive last year and quickly realised it didn't work.

See my point about air defence being able to cover the front lines as well as major population centres and infrastructure being a necessity.

I didn't say the Russians are going to run out of ammo...the Russians are currently bringing armoured vehicles and artillery out of long term storage to cover the amount of losses they are suffering. Plenty of people are monitoring this online in terms of losses and monitoring satellite photos of storage bases....the Russians will at some stage empty these stores, they do not have the ability to manufacture replacements in anything like the quantity they are currently losing them.

So there is a possibility that next year Russia will have ammunition but not enough artillery pieces to make use of it.


There is also the possibility that within the next six months Ukraine will have 6 or 7 Patriot systems which combined with other air defence systems will make a real difference and that F16's might be able to make a meaningful impact next year.


A lot of "ifs and buts" not least the issue of who wins the US Election.

[BikeBikeBIke]

https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/18100143704345603...

John Healey visits Ukraine on his second day in office. (Or maybe first or third!)

The right thing to do and the right message to send.

And delivered a load of extra kit:

https://x.com/JimmySecUK/status/181000811799400865...

Edited by BikeBikeBIke on Sunday 7th July 21:35

[Byker28i]

Account here reporting on the latest Economist report, claiming huge russian losses, that these are unsustainable, hence the increased efforts to influence elections elsewhere

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1809924688199479...

[7mike]

Byker28i said:

Account here reporting on the latest Economist report, claiming huge russian losses, that these are unsustainable, hence the increased efforts to influence elections elsewhere

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1809924688199479...

That can't be right, Lavrov just made it clear, his country don't meddle in the affairs of other countries,

https://news.sky.com/video/i-dont-care-says-russia...

[Adam.]

Distinct lack of recent content showing expensive Russian stuff getting blown up (which is always heartwarming), or front line movements.

Has activity reduced and another stalemate been reached?

[borcy]

https://x.com/Bricktop_NAFO/status/181006725649765...

Some limited evidence there may be fuel shortages in russia.

[king arthur]

Adam. said:

Distinct lack of recent content showing expensive Russian stuff getting blown up (which is always heartwarming), or front line movements.

Has activity reduced and another stalemate been reached?

Well here's some footage of what was a massive explosion, a large ammo dump hit and continued exploding for some time.
https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1809881212875...

[Digga]

king arthur said:

Adam. said:

Distinct lack of recent content showing expensive Russian stuff getting blown up (which is always heartwarming), or front line movements.

Has activity reduced and another stalemate been reached?

Well here's some footage of what was a massive explosion, a large ammo dump hit and continued exploding for some time.
https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1809881212875...

"I love the sight of Russian ammo dumps exploding in the morning!"

[MesoForm]

borcy said:

https://x.com/Bricktop_NAFO/status/181006725649765...

Some limited evidence there may be fuel shortages in russia.

Byker28i said:

Account here reporting on the latest Economist report, claiming huge russian losses, that these are unsustainable, hence the increased efforts to influence elections elsewhere

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1809924688199479...

Haven't we been hearing that the Russian losses are unsustainable and there are fuel shortages in Russia for pretty much 2 years now? All we need is for a clip of Putin shaking a bit to prove he has 6 months to live.
Don't get me wrong I hope all of the above is true but it's increasingly hard to believe the good news from a war that's been grinding out for so long.

[Evanivitch]

BikeBikeBIke said:

https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/18100143704345603...

John Healey visits Ukraine on his second day in office. (Or maybe first or third!)

The right thing to do and the right message to send.

And delivered a load of extra kit:

https://x.com/JimmySecUK/status/181000811799400865...

Edited by BikeBikeBIke on Sunday 7th July 21:35

UK artillery capability has been really, really slashed in all this.

[Adam.]

king arthur said:

Well here's some footage of what was a massive explosion, a large ammo dump hit and continued exploding for some time.
https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1809881212875...

that's cheered me up, thanks

[Iamnotkloot]

Pretty sick stuff from Russia - quel surprise

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/07/08/...