Russia Invades Ukraine. Volume 5

[Pistom]

AlexIT said:

It definitely isn't, I totally agree.

To be honest, even as I despise Orban, I really hope he'll be able to open some doors for talks.

What is going to be said after, is none of his business: I am in the camp that only Ukraine can decide which are the conditions to achieve an end to this war.

I think talking has to start to get somewhere so Orban has at least got an audience.

[Richard-G]

Pistom said:

AlexIT said:

It definitely isn't, I totally agree.

To be honest, even as I despise Orban, I really hope he'll be able to open some doors for talks.

What is going to be said after, is none of his business: I am in the camp that only Ukraine can decide which are the conditions to achieve an end to this war.

I think talking has to start to get somewhere so Orban has at least got an audience.

Russia are currently sending troops to the front line on dirtbikes and losing both at an alarming rate, they can't seem to push thru the Ukrainian lines, this time last year suffered a failed insurrection, hundreds of russian citizens have been killed in a burgeoning internal terrorist issue and the interest rate is climbing seeming monthly.

If I were Ukraine I'd keep em at the sword for a while yet and watch them fall over.

Finally, as Hungary are involved, a name for the future peace accord could be Budapest memorandum 2, that way Ukraine can be fooled a 2nd time and not feel so stupid about it.

[Digga]

Pistom said:

AlexIT said:

It definitely isn't, I totally agree.

To be honest, even as I despise Orban, I really hope he'll be able to open some doors for talks.

What is going to be said after, is none of his business: I am in the camp that only Ukraine can decide which are the conditions to achieve an end to this war.

I think talking has to start to get somewhere so Orban has at least got an audience.

Yes, Putin can plausibly regard Orban as ‘my enemy’s enemy’ in this negotiation. So despite being an ahole, at least in this instance, Orban is ‘our’ ahole.

He might get through where Macron embarrassingly failed.

[BikeBikeBIke]

Pistom said:

AlexIT said:

It definitely isn't, I totally agree.

To be honest, even as I despise Orban, I really hope he'll be able to open some doors for talks.

What is going to be said after, is none of his business: I am in the camp that only Ukraine can decide which are the conditions to achieve an end to this war.

I think talking has to start to get somewhere so Orban has at least got an audience.

Talking is already happening I'm sure. They must be talking in order to do prisoner exchanges, I'm sure if either side had something practical to concede to end this it will have been mentioned.

The problem is if both sides requirements are blatantly impossible to reconcile "formal" talks are a total waste of time *and* a sign of weakness.

Ukraines minimum requirement is to remain a 'normal' democratic country and Russia's minimum requirement is thst Ukraine must not be a 'normal' democratic country. There's no middle ground.

"Talks" is a eupanism for total Ukrainain surrender and rightly or wrongly they don't want to surrender.

[martynr]

CharlesdeGaulle said:

moustachebandit said:

You're of course (and unsurprisingly) completely overlooking the fact that shortly after the deal was signed russia launched drone and missile attacks at the Ukrainian ports handling the export of grain, destroying critical port infrastructure and grain ships. As well as deliberately targeting the wider infrastructure critical for moving grain like grain storage and rail hubs etc. They also attacked and seized civilian vessels bound for Ukrainian ports injuring and killing crew.

This happened in the first few days and weeks of signing the deal. It is LITERALLY a textbook example of the russians operating in bad faith.

The whole thing was a cynical ruse, russia wanted to get certain restrictions relaxed but at the same time had no intention of allowing Ukraine to benefit from the deal, which is why they tried to destroy Ukraine's ability to move grain onto boats and also scare off anyone attempting to make the journey. As a result, the restrictions stayed in place. Seems pretty fair.

russia flounced from "the deal" because they couldn't do anything to limit Ukrainian grain exports because Ukrainian air defence had vastly improved and because the black sea fleet had been chased out of the black sea due to targeted strikes on russian black sea navy bases and the use of Ukrainian drone boats on their ships.

Good post, and well observed; it's classic ESG and his selective memory and 'achingly fair' balance.

+1

[martynr]

Digga said:

Pistom said:

AlexIT said:

It definitely isn't, I totally agree.

To be honest, even as I despise Orban, I really hope he'll be able to open some doors for talks.

What is going to be said after, is none of his business: I am in the camp that only Ukraine can decide which are the conditions to achieve an end to this war.

I think talking has to start to get somewhere so Orban has at least got an audience.

Yes, Putin can plausibly regard Orban as ‘my enemy’s enemy’ in this negotiation. So despite being an ahole, at least in this instance, Orban is ‘our’ ahole.

He might get through where Macron embarrassingly failed.

Orban is a puppet of Vladolf. He has been told to do some work if he still wants his well lubed contracts to continue from Gazprom. EU has stated that he is not negotiating as their representative and doing this all on his own. What happened to the previous negotiator - Erdogan? Most likely had enough of Vladolf's bullst and told him to get the fk out.

[Pistom]

martynr said:

Digga said:

Pistom said:

AlexIT said:

It definitely isn't, I totally agree.

To be honest, even as I despise Orban, I really hope he'll be able to open some doors for talks.

What is going to be said after, is none of his business: I am in the camp that only Ukraine can decide which are the conditions to achieve an end to this war.

I think talking has to start to get somewhere so Orban has at least got an audience.

Yes, Putin can plausibly regard Orban as ‘my enemy’s enemy’ in this negotiation. So despite being an ahole, at least in this instance, Orban is ‘our’ ahole.

He might get through where Macron embarrassingly failed.

Orban is a puppet of Vladolf. He has been told to do some work if he still wants his well lubed contracts to continue from Gazprom. EU has stated that he is not negotiating as their representative and doing this all on his own. What happened to the previous negotiator - Erdogan? Most likely had enough of Vladolf's bullst and told him to get the fk out.

So is he a puppet or working on his own?

Leaders from countries like Hungary usually are someone's puppet just as we see whoever is the UK incumbent leader has strings pulled. It's part of being beholden to another force be it for trade, resources or anything else.

Orbán is an itch but could be useful if he could get either side to start giving on their demands.

I don't see why Ukraine should give anything but the end needs a beginning.

[isaldiri]

Pistom said:

I don't see why Ukraine should give anything but the end needs a beginning.

The reality in the ground is that they don’t exactly seem able to retake significant ground to get back to 2022 borders nevermind 2014 so it’s as good as a lost cause. What are they losing to negotiate over the status of ground something they can’t realistically win back?

[Rumblestripe]

isaldiri said:

Pistom said:

I don't see why Ukraine should give anything but the end needs a beginning.

The reality in the ground is that they don’t exactly seem able to retake significant ground to get back to 2022 borders nevermind 2014 so it’s as good as a lost cause. What are they losing to negotiate over the status of ground something they can’t realistically win back?

They remain in a defensive posture because it is an effective way to attrit the Russian forces.

Russian attacks are increasingly disjointed and improvised, things like trying to use dirt bikes to get their infantry through the "kill zone" of drones and artillery is a good case in point.

[hidetheelephants]

Rumblestripe said:

They remain in a defensive posture because it is an effective way to attrit the Russian forces.

Russian attacks are increasingly disjointed and improvised, things like trying to use dirt bikes to get their infantry through the "kill zone" of drones and artillery is a good case in point.

Because riding vehicles which are completely vulnerable to every weapon on the battlefield including small arms, grenades, anti personnel mines and probably anti tank mines too is completely normal and all top tier armies use this neat trick!

[TheJimi]

Rumblestripe said:

isaldiri said:

Pistom said:

I don't see why Ukraine should give anything but the end needs a beginning.

The reality in the ground is that they don’t exactly seem able to retake significant ground to get back to 2022 borders nevermind 2014 so it’s as good as a lost cause. What are they losing to negotiate over the status of ground something they can’t realistically win back?

They remain in a defensive posture because it is an effective way to attrit the Russian forces.

Russian attacks are increasingly disjointed and improvised, things like trying to use dirt bikes to get their infantry through the "kill zone" of drones and artillery is a good case in point.

We've been taking the piss out of the Russians for months & years now, for various reasons - with the current schtick being the seemingly suicidal and futile dirtbike attacks. Rightly so, too; it's more than a bit ridiculous.

The flip side is that despite all that, the Ukrainians don't seem to be any further forward in getting to pre '22 borders and it doesn't look like that is going to change any time soon, if at all - unfortunately. Although I desperately want to see it.

So imo, isaldiri has a valid point above, as unpalatable as it is.

Edit: if I was a Ukrainian, I know that I almost certainly wouldn't be as pragmatic as this, and I'd be wanting to eviscerate every single Russian with my bare hands.

Edited by TheJimi on Saturday 6th July 13:18

[Rumblestripe]

TheJimi said:

Rumblestripe said:

isaldiri said:

Pistom said:

I don't see why Ukraine should give anything but the end needs a beginning.

The reality in the ground is that they don’t exactly seem able to retake significant ground to get back to 2022 borders nevermind 2014 so it’s as good as a lost cause. What are they losing to negotiate over the status of ground something they can’t realistically win back?

They remain in a defensive posture because it is an effective way to attrit the Russian forces.

Russian attacks are increasingly disjointed and improvised, things like trying to use dirt bikes to get their infantry through the "kill zone" of drones and artillery is a good case in point.

We've been taking the piss out of the Russians for months & years now, for various reasons - with the current schtick being the seemingly suicidal and futile dirtbike attacks. Rightly so, too; it's more than a bit ridiculous.

The flip side is that despite all that, the Ukrainians don't seem to be any further forward in getting to pre '22 borders and it doesn't look like that is going to change any time soon, if at all - unfortunately. Although I desperately want to see it.

So imo, isaldiri has a valid point above, as unpalatable as it is.

Edited by TheJimi on Saturday 6th July 13:11

"Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake" Napoleon Bonaparte (IIRC)

Ukraine must conserve it's human resources so if the Russians keep piling into kill zones...

...crack on Vlad

[Digga]

Rumblestripe said:

"Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake" Napoleon Bonaparte (IIRC)

Ukraine must conserve it's human resources so if the Russians keep piling into kill zones...

...crack on Vlad

100% this.

If, for the time being, Russia is hell bent on offering up so many of its human resources for target practice, then just deal with that. Attacking or re-taking ground now is not the priority.

[isaldiri]

TheJimi said:

Edit: if I was a Ukrainian, I know that I almost certainly wouldn't be as pragmatic as this, and I'd be wanting to eviscerate every single Russian with my bare hands.

I suppose the question is would you then be volunteering for multiple tours of combat at the front line? Ukrainian public resolve to not give up anything to the russians is all and good but given their known issues re increasing difficulty to get enough troops via conscription plus the obvious political infighting regarding that makes the stated objective to resist giving up any ground seem a little unachievable.

[BikeBikeBIke]

isaldiri said:

The reality in the ground is that they don’t exactly seem able to retake significant ground to get back to 2022 borders nevermind 2014 so it’s as good as a lost cause. What are they losing to negotiate over the status of ground something they can’t realistically win back?

It's not a war over territory. It can't be ended by offering territory.

[Oliver Hardy]

TheJimi said:

Rumblestripe said:

isaldiri said:

Pistom said:

I don't see why Ukraine should give anything but the end needs a beginning.

The reality in the ground is that they don’t exactly seem able to retake significant ground to get back to 2022 borders nevermind 2014 so it’s as good as a lost cause. What are they losing to negotiate over the status of ground something they can’t realistically win back?

They remain in a defensive posture because it is an effective way to attrit the Russian forces.

Russian attacks are increasingly disjointed and improvised, things like trying to use dirt bikes to get their infantry through the "kill zone" of drones and artillery is a good case in point.

We've been taking the piss out of the Russians for months & years now, for various reasons - with the current schtick being the seemingly suicidal and futile dirtbike attacks. Rightly so, too; it's more than a bit ridiculous.

The flip side is that despite all that, the Ukrainians don't seem to be any further forward in getting to pre '22 borders and it doesn't look like that is going to change any time soon, if at all - unfortunately. Although I desperately want to see it.

So imo, isaldiri has a valid point above, as unpalatable as it is.

Edit: if I was a Ukrainian, I know that I almost certainly wouldn't be as pragmatic as this, and I'd be wanting to eviscerate every single Russian with my bare hands.

Edited by TheJimi on Saturday 6th July 13:18

There is also a battle field of logistics and another of economy

[BikeBikeBIke]

isaldiri said:

TheJimi said:

Edit: if I was a Ukrainian, I know that I almost certainly wouldn't be as pragmatic as this, and I'd be wanting to eviscerate every single Russian with my bare hands.

I suppose the question is would you then be volunteering for multiple tours of combat at the front line? Ukrainian public resolve to not give up anything to the russians is all and good but given their known issues re increasing difficulty to get enough troops via conscription plus the obvious political infighting regarding that makes the stated objective to resist giving up any ground seem a little unachievable.

Surrendering to Russia doesn't allow you to escape from conscription. All that happens is you.get conscripted into the Russian army and sacrificed higher up the expendable troops list than Russian criminals and when you're dead your kids get put in godawful Russian kids homes.

According to Telegram there are no unwounded Ukrainian males 18-65 in the occupied areas of Ukraine. They were all subject to conscription. (And the videos in the early days of Ukrainan conscripts pleading from troops transports left nothing in doubt.)

I'm pretty sure if Ukrainans had an easy way out of this nightmare they'd already have taken it. It's a bit insulting to pretend they're such morons they follow simple easy steps to avoid getting slaughtered and their kids blown up.

Edited by BikeBikeBIke on Saturday 6th July 14:13

[martynr]

isaldiri said:

The reality in the ground is that they don’t exactly seem able to retake significant ground to get back to 2022 borders nevermind 2014 so it’s as good as a lost cause. What are they losing to negotiate over the status of ground something they can’t realistically win back?

You don't negotiate with a predator. The collective west and US have no plans of removing Vladolf and are afraid of anyone getting hands of what is left of WMDs. Them being more crazy than Vladolf and its only theoretical. Any advantage given to Ukrainians is always reduced to a minimum so not to "escalate" the situation. A very sad situation for all Ukrainians.

[spookly]

TheJimi said:

Rumblestripe said:

isaldiri said:

Pistom said:

I don't see why Ukraine should give anything but the end needs a beginning.

The reality in the ground is that they don’t exactly seem able to retake significant ground to get back to 2022 borders nevermind 2014 so it’s as good as a lost cause. What are they losing to negotiate over the status of ground something they can’t realistically win back?

They remain in a defensive posture because it is an effective way to attrit the Russian forces.

Russian attacks are increasingly disjointed and improvised, things like trying to use dirt bikes to get their infantry through the "kill zone" of drones and artillery is a good case in point.

We've been taking the piss out of the Russians for months & years now, for various reasons - with the current schtick being the seemingly suicidal and futile dirtbike attacks. Rightly so, too; it's more than a bit ridiculous.

The flip side is that despite all that, the Ukrainians don't seem to be any further forward in getting to pre '22 borders and it doesn't look like that is going to change any time soon, if at all - unfortunately. Although I desperately want to see it.

So imo, isaldiri has a valid point above, as unpalatable as it is.

Edit: if I was a Ukrainian, I know that I almost certainly wouldn't be as pragmatic as this, and I'd be wanting to eviscerate every single Russian with my bare hands.

Edited by TheJimi on Saturday 6th July 13:18

I disagree. Why would the Ukrainian's make the same mistake as their failed summer offensive, and waste men and materiel trying to take back land, when they can sit back and let the russians lose huge volumes of men and equipment?

Ukraine is doing exactly what Ukraine needs to do. Be patient and only push if the opportunity arises. russia does not have unlimited men or equipment. Before too long they'll run out of tanks, IFVs, artillery pieces and barrels, cruise missiles, and will only have people if they start conscription again or find more poor foreign saps to come over.

[isaldiri]

martynr said:

You don't negotiate with a predator. The collective west and US have no plans of removing Vladolf and are afraid of anyone getting hands of what is left of WMDs. Them being more crazy than Vladolf and its only theoretical. Any advantage given to Ukrainians is always reduced to a minimum so not to "escalate" the situation. A very sad situation for all Ukrainians.

Well I suppose my point is unpleasant or otherwise negotiation is, if it’s not so easy or sustainable for how the ukrainians to be sacrificing their people on the battlefield maintaining an active ‘hot’ conflict as the better option compared to a lower intensity one closer to 2014-2022 Donbas, they will have to. Neither side are ever going to expect either side to agree to any agreement long term anyway so it’s more about what one can currently maintain.