Russia Invades Ukraine. Volume 5

[BikeBikeBIke]

cliffords said:

Do not watch the videos.

+1

It has to be done, but we don't have to watch it.

I pity the guys operating the drones. I hope they can put it behind them and lead normal lives in future.

[EddieSteadyGo]

EddieSteadyGo said:

This is curious....

A Russian government minister has just arrived in New York to participate in a U.N. summit of "police chiefs". Except the government minister is also under US sanctions. That doesn't prevent him from travelling to the US but, considering everything which is going on, it seems strange he would want to travel to New York to participate in some innocuous UN meeting....

https://kyivindependent.com/russian-interior-minis...

Just picking this up again, as it did seem a bit odd that a senior Russian official would have visited the US for a 'police chiefs' meeting. Now it is being reported by Ukraine journalist Dmytro Gordon that the reason for the minister's visit was to deliver a draft peace agreement from Russia re Ukraine.

He claims Russia wants:

1) Ukraine should give up the Luhansk and Donetsk Regions.
2) Ukraine should ensure the supply of water to Crimea.
3) Russia will hand over the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant to Ukraine.
4) Russia will transfer control of a 100-kilometer demilitarised zone along the Dnieper to the Black Sea to Ukraine.
5) Ukraine should at the constitutional level refuse to join NATO, but at the same time allowed to become a member of the European Union;
6) Ukraine should enshrine the concept of a "peacetime army" in the Constitution, which should not exceed 350,000 people and have a limited amount of weapons.
7) Crimea is allegedly established as a territory of dual subordination to Ukraine and Russia.
8) The U.S. should lift sanctions against the banking system and oil and gas complex of the Russian federation, as well as allow the supply of high technologies.

First time for a while I've seen any journalist reporting suggested what possible terms Russia might be looking for.

https://ukranews.com/ua/news/1017670-gordon-stverd...

[ConnectionError]

EddieSteadyGo said:

EddieSteadyGo said:

This is curious....

A Russian government minister has just arrived in New York to participate in a U.N. summit of "police chiefs". Except the government minister is also under US sanctions. That doesn't prevent him from travelling to the US but, considering everything which is going on, it seems strange he would want to travel to New York to participate in some innocuous UN meeting....

https://kyivindependent.com/russian-interior-minis...

Just picking this up again, as it did seem a bit odd that a senior Russian official would have visited the US for a 'police chiefs' meeting. Now it is being reported by Ukraine journalist Dmytro Gordon that the reason for the minister's visit was to deliver a draft peace agreement from Russia re Ukraine.

He claims Russia wants:

1) Ukraine should give up the Luhansk and Donetsk Regions.
2) Ukraine should ensure the supply of water to Crimea.
3) Russia will hand over the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant to Ukraine.
4) Russia will transfer control of a 100-kilometer demilitarised zone along the Dnieper to the Black Sea to Ukraine.
5) Ukraine should at the constitutional level refuse to join NATO, but at the same time allowed to become a member of the European Union;
6) Ukraine should enshrine the concept of a "peacetime army" in the Constitution, which should not exceed 350,000 people and have a limited amount of weapons.
7) Crimea is allegedly established as a territory of dual subordination to Ukraine and Russia.
8) The U.S. should lift sanctions against the banking system and oil and gas complex of the Russian federation, as well as allow the supply of high technologies.

First time for a while I've seen any journalist reporting suggested what possible terms Russia might be looking for.

https://ukranews.com/ua/news/1017670-gordon-stverd...

That does suggest a climb down from Russias previous peace terms?

[EddieSteadyGo]

ConnectionError said:

That does suggest a climb down from Russias previous peace terms?

I'd say so, yes.

Certainly feels to me like this is heading to some kind of end-game. I wonder if Viktor Orban's visit to meet Zelensky yesterday was also somehow related?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jul...

[borcy]

It seems a normal place to start negotiations. Depends if it's real, if Russia would stick to it and what the Ukrainians make of it.

[BikeBikeBIke]

EddieSteadyGo said:

Just picking this up again, as it did seem a bit odd that a senior Russian official would have visited the US for a 'police chiefs' meeting. Now it is being reported by Ukraine journalist Dmytro Gordon that the reason for the minister's visit was to deliver a draft peace agreement from Russia re Ukraine.

He claims Russia wants:

1) Ukraine should give up the Luhansk and Donetsk Regions.
2) Ukraine should ensure the supply of water to Crimea.
3) Russia will hand over the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant to Ukraine.
4) Russia will transfer control of a 100-kilometer demilitarised zone along the Dnieper to the Black Sea to Ukraine.
5) Ukraine should at the constitutional level refuse to join NATO, but at the same time allowed to become a member of the European Union;
6) Ukraine should enshrine the concept of a "peacetime army" in the Constitution, which should not exceed 350,000 people and have a limited amount of weapons.
7) Crimea is allegedly established as a territory of dual subordination to Ukraine and Russia.
8) The U.S. should lift sanctions against the banking system and oil and gas complex of the Russian federation, as well as allow the supply of high technologies.

First time for a while I've seen any journalist reporting suggested what possible terms Russia might be looking for.

https://ukranews.com/ua/news/1017670-gordon-stverd...

I don't believe it.

7) is a non starter for Russia.

2) is no longer possible becaise the dam that feeds the canal was destroyed by Russia.

5) Can't be acceptable to Putin, the EU is more dangerous to him than Nato.


Are they peace terms or are they conditions for a ceasefire with further demands afterwards?

Why the hell would this be communicated to America, Ukraine are the ones who need to decide.

Edited by BikeBikeBIke on Wednesday 3rd July 21:43

[EddieSteadyGo]

BikeBikeBIke said:

I don't believe it.

7) is a non started for Russia.

2) is no longer possible becaise the damn that feeds the canal was destroyed by Russia.

5) Can't be acceptable to Putin, the EU is more dangerous to him than Nato.


Are they peace terms or are they conditions for a ceasefire with further demands afterwards?

Why the hell would this be communicated to America, Ukraine are the ones who need to decide.

Point 7 looks like is a diplomatic fudge. To all intents and purposes it would be Russian.

The idea Putin thinks the EU is more dangerous than Nato is laughable.

Reason for communicating to the US is they are supplying most of the weapons.

[J6542]

EddieSteadyGo said:

EddieSteadyGo said:

This is curious....

A Russian government minister has just arrived in New York to participate in a U.N. summit of "police chiefs". Except the government minister is also under US sanctions. That doesn't prevent him from travelling to the US but, considering everything which is going on, it seems strange he would want to travel to New York to participate in some innocuous UN meeting....

https://kyivindependent.com/russian-interior-minis...

Just picking this up again, as it did seem a bit odd that a senior Russian official would have visited the US for a 'police chiefs' meeting. Now it is being reported by Ukraine journalist Dmytro Gordon that the reason for the minister's visit was to deliver a draft peace agreement from Russia re Ukraine.

He claims Russia wants:

1) Ukraine should give up the Luhansk and Donetsk Regions.
2) Ukraine should ensure the supply of water to Crimea.
3) Russia will hand over the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant to Ukraine.
4) Russia will transfer control of a 100-kilometer demilitarised zone along the Dnieper to the Black Sea to Ukraine.
5) Ukraine should at the constitutional level refuse to join NATO, but at the same time allowed to become a member of the European Union;
6) Ukraine should enshrine the concept of a "peacetime army" in the Constitution, which should not exceed 350,000 people and have a limited amount of weapons.
7) Crimea is allegedly established as a territory of dual subordination to Ukraine and Russia.
8) The U.S. should lift sanctions against the banking system and oil and gas complex of the Russian federation, as well as allow the supply of high technologies.

First time for a while I've seen any journalist reporting suggested what possible terms Russia might be looking for.

https://ukranews.com/ua/news/1017670-gordon-stverd...

A ceasefire while they rearm, while Ukraine are treaty bound so they can’t. They can fk right off. If they want to talk about ceasefire they can get out of Ukraine first and the demilitarised zone is on their side of the border.

[macron]

J6542 said:

They can fk right off.

Plus a millionty.

In fact I'd say they should fk off, fk off, and fk off some more.

fking hateful evil murdering raping fks.

Russia will be remembered as an absolute skid mark in history.

[BikeBikeBIke]

EddieSteadyGo said:

The idea Putin thinks the EU is more dangerous than Nato is laughable.

Ukraine joins the EU. Russian people see Ukraine living like westerners. Free. Getting better off. Able to travel. Russian people decide they want some of that. Kill Putin to get that lifestyle.

NATO? Completely harmless to Putin, and he knows it because he doesn't defend his Nato borders.

[BikeBikeBIke]

J6542 said:

A ceasefire while they rearm, while Ukraine are treaty bound so they can’t. They can fk right off. If they want to talk about ceasefire they can get out of Ukraine first and the demilitarised zone is on their side of the border.

The only reason for 6) is if there was a plan to invade in future.

Academic because there is no way Russia would have made that offer.

[EddieSteadyGo]

BikeBikeBIke said:

Ukraine joins the EU. Russian people see Ukraine living like westerners. Free. Getting better off. Able to travel. Russian people decide they want some of that. Kill Putin to get that lifestyle.

NATO? Completely harmless to Putin, and he knows it because he doesn't defend his Nato borders.

The timeline for Ukraine accession is far from certain. It could easily take a decade of talks. It might even conclude in no agreement (like Turkey). Just because there is a lot of positive sentiment from people like von der Leyen currently, that could easily change in a few years, long before any agreement has been concluded.

And in fact, no-one knows if the EU in its current form will even by around in a decade or two. So the idea that Ukraine will join the EU quickly, then milk it sufficiently to become wealthy, and get freedom of movement, which then applies pressure to Putin as all the native Russians because jealous is, I would argue, far from certain.

I would put more money that Germany is itching to get back onto their old habit of buying cheap Russian gas as more likely to happen first.

[BikeBikeBIke]

EddieSteadyGo said:

BikeBikeBIke said:

Ukraine joins the EU. Russian people see Ukraine living like westerners. Free. Getting better off. Able to travel. Russian people decide they want some of that. Kill Putin to get that lifestyle.

NATO? Completely harmless to Putin, and he knows it because he doesn't defend his Nato borders.

The timeline for Ukraine accession is far from certain. It could easily take a decade of talks. It might even conclude in no agreement (like Turkey). Just because there is a lot of positive sentiment from people like von der Leyen currently, that could easily change in a few years, long before any agreement has been concluded.

And in fact, no-one knows if the EU in its current form will even by around in a decade or two. So the idea that Ukraine will join the EU quickly, then milk it sufficiently to become wealthy, and get freedom of movement, which then applies pressure to Putin as all the native Russians because jealous is, I would argue, far from certain.

You said "The idea Putin thinks the EU is more dangerous than Nato is laughable.".

I don't think you meant "because they'll never get round to joining".

[Cheib]

Oliver Hardy said:

missile debris in Ukraine is North Korean

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/russia-ap-ukrai...

Can't remember where now but watched a video of a journalist a couple of months ago at a unit in Ukraine that gathers all the ordinance that is found at missile strikes etc. Partly as part of potential war crimes investigations. They had a Korean missile in that video.

Apparently one of the reasons that Biden released the long range ATACMS to Ukraine is because North Korea had delivered long range missiles to Ukraine. The US had apparently told the Russians that they would do so in response to them using Korean missiles.

[Byker28i]

Zelensky to Bloomberg News: “If trump knows how to end this war, he should tell us today.” Then says if trump intends to abandon them to the Russians if he wins, he wants to know now so he can prepare.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1808668563869253876

[768]

Byker28i said:

Zelensky to Bloomberg News: “If trump knows how to end this war, he should tell us today.” Then says if trump intends to abandon them to the Russians if he wins, he wants to know now so he can prepare.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1808668563869253876

Trump is obviously all talk. I'm not convinced Zelensky is willing, or should be, to concede territory, but it sounds like he's more fearful of being replaced than funding being pulled.

I wonder if there is any way at all that Trump can offer a way out for Putin that will allow him to save face. Seems unlikely.

I kind of wish NATO would call the nuclear bluff, turn round and say they'll keep their kit out of Ukraine if Putin leaves, but otherwise it's time to go in and kick him out.

If Trump just pulls funding it's going to get very ugly.

[Digga]

BikeBikeBIke said:

EddieSteadyGo said:

The idea Putin thinks the EU is more dangerous than Nato is laughable.

Ukraine joins the EU. Russian people see Ukraine living like westerners. Free. Getting better off. Able to travel. Russian people decide they want some of that. Kill Putin to get that lifestyle.

NATO? Completely harmless to Putin, and he knows it because he doesn't defend his Nato borders.

Agree. This was about preserving the kleptocracy.

Any moves from Ukraine to reduce the influence of crime in their democracy would risk calls for similar in Russia. Any improvement in living standards similarly. They just wanted Ukraine to remain mired in the st of the Russo gangster system.

[martynr]

768 said:

Trump is obviously all talk. I'm not convinced Zelensky is willing, or should be, to concede territory, but it sounds like he's more fearful of being replaced than funding being pulled.

...

You are getting the names mixed. It is Pootin who is fearful to be replaced. It is not Zelensky who has been in power for over 25years.

Also there is a narative being sent around about so called "piece deal". Rusky planes flying about. There was one deal already. It was a "grain deal" and where ot is now? Any deals with Rusky government is waste of time. End of.

[BikeBikeBIke]

martynr said:

You are getting the names mixed. It is Pootin who is fearful to be replaced. It is not Zelensky who has been in power for over 25years.

Yeah. The only way to remove Putin from power is to kill him.

The easiest way to depose Zelensky is to vote him out after which he will be a millionaire travelling the world giving Lectures to standing ovations.

Both men are very aware of that.

[thatsprettyshady]

martynr said:

768 said:

Trump is obviously all talk. I'm not convinced Zelensky is willing, or should be, to concede territory, but it sounds like he's more fearful of being replaced than funding being pulled.

...

You are getting the names mixed. It is Pootin who is fearful to be replaced. It is not Zelensky who has been in power for over 25years.

Also there is a narative being sent around about so called "piece deal". Rusky planes flying about. There was one deal already. It was a "grain deal" and where ot is now? Any deals with Rusky government is waste of time. End of.

Then surely this will be another "forever war" as clearly Ukraine is only being supplied enough weapons to just get by, not retake anything meaningful. I don't see that changing suddenly either. What a mess.