45th President Of The United States, Donald Trump (Vol. 14)

[RustyMX5]

The following list highlights why you can't assume that Trump (or Biden) is ahead in the polls because the typical sample size is a tiny percentage of the Registered Voters. And when you break it down further there's a reasonable probability that the poll was conducted in a red or blue county within a state.

The list below gives the State, the number of registered voters and a percentage of what 1000 voters represents against the whole. As you can see, the percentages are minuscule. And for the avoidance of doubt the registered voters were accurate as of November 2023 so should be fairly ok

State	Registered Voters	Percentage of RV vs 1000 Sample
Alabama	3466701	0.0288458681611134
Alaska	537615	0.186006714842406
Arizona	4206639	0.0237719471530597
Arkansas	1576910	0.0634151600281563
California	22114456	0.00452192900426762
Colorado	3839945	0.0260420396646306
Connecticut	2317657	0.0431470230495712
Delaware	718772	0.139126176311821
Florida	14609682	0.00684477595063329
Georgia	7279310	0.0137375657857682
Hawaii	767559	0.130283144357632
Idaho	923517	0.108281710028077
Illinois	8224350	0.0121590156060965
Indiana	4305933	0.0232237705510049
Iowa	2083979	0.0479851284489911
Kansas	1802893	0.0554664087108886
Kentucky	3142316	0.0318236612740412
Louisiana	2854280	0.0350351051753857
Maine	1039517	0.0961985229678784
Maryland	4135597	0.0241803057696386
Massachusetts	4578845	0.0218395687121971
Michigan	7721482	0.0129508817089776
Minnesota	3514355	0.028454723555247
Mississippi	1932172	0.0517552267603505
Missouri	4047817	0.0247046741490537
Montana	677865	0.147521999218133
Nebraska	1181974	0.0846042298730767
Nevada	2057615	0.0485999567460385
New Hampshire	1000925	0.0999075854834278
New Jersey	6112548	0.0163597897308945
New Mexico	1235665	0.0809280832588121
New York	14520476	0.00688682657510677
North Carolina	6832197	0.01463658029767
North Dakota	422819	0.236507820131073
Ohio	7519199	0.0132992889269189
Oklahoma	2116074	0.0472573265396201
Oregon	3284006	0.0304506142802419
Pennsylvania	8170351	0.0122393762520117
Rhode Island	734914	0.136070342924478
South Carolina	3403082	0.0293851279516626
South Dakota	580051	0.172398633913225
Tennessee	4166638	0.024000165121136
Texas	16625506	0.00601485452532994
Utah	1520941	0.0657487700048851
Vermont	462397	0.216264378877891
Virginia	5743089	0.017412232336988
Washington	4970937	0.0201169316770661
West Virginia	1092051	0.0915708149161532
Wisconsin	4772962	0.0209513505450075
Wyoming	286354	0.349218100672594

https://independentvoterproject.org/map

If you're assuming that the polls are accurate, I'm sorry to say you're deluding yourself. At best, they could be considered as being a rough indication.

[paulguitar]

cayman-black said:

Pink this is the anti Trump thread so dont waste your time here.

What is it about trump that you like?

[Al Gorithum]

paulguitar said:

What is it about trump that you like?

To be fair, I know quite a few people who like Trump. They're all thick. Every single one of them.

[paulguitar]

Al Gorithum said:

paulguitar said:

What is it about trump that you like?

To be fair, I know quite a few people who like Trump. They're all thick. Every single one of them.

Well, hopefully, CB will not be thick and will make a case for trump.

[PinkHouse]

RustyMX5 said:

The following list highlights why you can't assume that Trump (or Biden) is ahead in the polls because the typical sample size is a tiny percentage of the Registered Voters. And when you break it down further there's a reasonable probability that the poll was conducted in a red or blue county within a state.

The list below gives the State, the number of registered voters and a percentage of what 1000 voters represents against the whole. As you can see, the percentages are minuscule. And for the avoidance of doubt the registered voters were accurate as of November 2023 so should be fairly ok

State	Registered Voters	Percentage of RV vs 1000 Sample
Alabama	3466701	0.0288458681611134
Alaska	537615	0.186006714842406
Arizona	4206639	0.0237719471530597
Arkansas	1576910	0.0634151600281563
California	22114456	0.00452192900426762
Colorado	3839945	0.0260420396646306
Connecticut	2317657	0.0431470230495712
Delaware	718772	0.139126176311821
Florida	14609682	0.00684477595063329
Georgia	7279310	0.0137375657857682
Hawaii	767559	0.130283144357632
Idaho	923517	0.108281710028077
Illinois	8224350	0.0121590156060965
Indiana	4305933	0.0232237705510049
Iowa	2083979	0.0479851284489911
Kansas	1802893	0.0554664087108886
Kentucky	3142316	0.0318236612740412
Louisiana	2854280	0.0350351051753857
Maine	1039517	0.0961985229678784
Maryland	4135597	0.0241803057696386
Massachusetts	4578845	0.0218395687121971
Michigan	7721482	0.0129508817089776
Minnesota	3514355	0.028454723555247
Mississippi	1932172	0.0517552267603505
Missouri	4047817	0.0247046741490537
Montana	677865	0.147521999218133
Nebraska	1181974	0.0846042298730767
Nevada	2057615	0.0485999567460385
New Hampshire	1000925	0.0999075854834278
New Jersey	6112548	0.0163597897308945
New Mexico	1235665	0.0809280832588121
New York	14520476	0.00688682657510677
North Carolina	6832197	0.01463658029767
North Dakota	422819	0.236507820131073
Ohio	7519199	0.0132992889269189
Oklahoma	2116074	0.0472573265396201
Oregon	3284006	0.0304506142802419
Pennsylvania	8170351	0.0122393762520117
Rhode Island	734914	0.136070342924478
South Carolina	3403082	0.0293851279516626
South Dakota	580051	0.172398633913225
Tennessee	4166638	0.024000165121136
Texas	16625506	0.00601485452532994
Utah	1520941	0.0657487700048851
Vermont	462397	0.216264378877891
Virginia	5743089	0.017412232336988
Washington	4970937	0.0201169316770661
West Virginia	1092051	0.0915708149161532
Wisconsin	4772962	0.0209513505450075
Wyoming	286354	0.349218100672594

https://independentvoterproject.org/map

If you're assuming that the polls are accurate, I'm sorry to say you're deluding yourself. At best, they could be considered as being a rough indication.

Okay but this doesn't preclude their discussion. That's why they usually include a margin of error which is right most of the time

[PinkHouse]

paulguitar said:

Al Gorithum said:

paulguitar said:

What is it about trump that you like?

To be fair, I know quite a few people who like Trump. They're all thick. Every single one of them.

Well, hopefully, CB will not be thick and will make a case for trump.

I also know a few people that like trump and they're all incredibly intelligent. The thing with anecdotes is that they are essentially meaningless in arguments, this includes my own personal anecdote in the previous sentence

[paulguitar]

PinkHouse said:

paulguitar said:

Al Gorithum said:

paulguitar said:

What is it about trump that you like?

To be fair, I know quite a few people who like Trump. They're all thick. Every single one of them.

Well, hopefully, CB will not be thick and will make a case for trump.

I also know a few people that like trump and they're all incredibly intelligent. The thing with anecdotes is that they are essentially meaningless in arguments, this includes my own personal anecdote in the previous sentence

I'm fascinated that anyone could support trump, but I am completely open to hearing an argument about why they do. I've been awaiting that since he fired up his political career with his 'birther' lie campaign.

[PinkHouse]

paulguitar said:

cayman-black said:

Pink this is the anti Trump thread so dont waste your time here.

What is it about trump that you like?

There are personal traits of his that I like and also traits that I dislike. That goes for his track record too, but it's not going to change any minds here so I don't see the point in sharing my opinion on him

[paulguitar]

PinkHouse said:

paulguitar said:

cayman-black said:

Pink this is the anti Trump thread so dont waste your time here.

What is it about trump that you like?

There are personal traits of his that I like and also traits that I dislike. That goes for his track record too, but it's not going to change any minds here so I don't see the point in sharing my opinion on him

You're on the right thread to discuss it. I accept that it's one-sided here, for obvious reasons, but if you can make a case for trump I'd be interested to read it.

[PinkHouse]

paulguitar said:

PinkHouse said:

paulguitar said:

cayman-black said:

Pink this is the anti Trump thread so dont waste your time here.

What is it about trump that you like?

There are personal traits of his that I like and also traits that I dislike. That goes for his track record too, but it's not going to change any minds here so I don't see the point in sharing my opinion on him

You're on the right thread to discuss it. I accept that it's one-sided here, for obvious reasons, but if you can make a case for trump I'd be interested to read it.

Trump has been better fiscally and on issues of national and international security than Biden and in summary the country was a much better place under his leadership than the current admin. The voters get to decide later this year so all we have to do is wait and see which way they prefer

[Mortarboard]

PinkHouse said:

Trump has been better fiscally and on issues of national and international security than Biden and in summary the country was a much better place under his leadership than the current admin. The voters get to decide later this year so all we have to do is wait and see which way they prefer

What was your thoughts on the Helsinki meeting with putin?

M.

[PinkHouse]

Mortarboard said:

PinkHouse said:

Trump has been better fiscally and on issues of national and international security than Biden and in summary the country was a much better place under his leadership than the current admin. The voters get to decide later this year so all we have to do is wait and see which way they prefer

What was your thoughts on the Helsinki meeting with putin?

M.

It's certainly an infinitely better situation where world leaders can sit across the table for a discussion than in a proxy war that costs hundreds of thousands of casualties

[Strangely Brown]

PinkHouse said:

Trump has been better fiscally and on issues of national and international security than Biden and in summary the country was a much better place under his leadership than the current admin. The voters get to decide later this year so all we have to do is wait and see which way they prefer

You think that stealing classified documents, storing them in a toilet and showing them to people without clearance is better for national and international security?

[paulguitar]

PinkHouse said:

Trump has been better fiscally and on issues of national and international security than Biden and in summary the country was a much better place under his leadership than the current admin. The voters get to decide later this year so all we have to do is wait and see which way they prefer

I'm concerned that many voters are not well-educated and/or informed enough to understand context. I've had some exchanges with trump supporters on Twitter who don't appear to think beyond 'my gas was cheaper' and 'my heating oil was cheaper'. It would be completely ridiculous to expect any country to be doing better now than pre-pandemic, and the US is relatively doing well.


As far as international security goes, trump was scary. He is beholden to Putin, leading to some very embarrassing scenes. His baiting of Kim Jong Un (another of his heroes) with his 'little rocket man' taunts was so mental that it seems scarcely possible it happened. Like a lot of his presidency, actually.

[Mortarboard]

PinkHouse said:

It's certainly an infinitely better situation where world leaders can sit across the table for a discussion than in a proxy war that costs hundreds of thousands of casualties

Do you think he silenced the interpreter because of what he said, or what putin said?

Many Trump supporters I know stopped being Trump supporters after that meeting.

M.

[dvs_dave]

PinkHouse said:

cayman-black said:

Pink this is the anti Trump thread so dont waste your time here.

Unfortunately seems to be that way. As soon as I post the indisputable facts that Trump is ahead in recent election and battleground polls, I get accused of the grave sin of having a 5 year old account which is baffling as I didn't realise that was somehow an insult. I can see why most others have stopped engaging as you can't really have any good discourse here so it's utterly pointless.

So you’re both pro-trump, or do you identify as the more typical “I’m not a fan of trump but…” trump fan?

Either way, what genuine fact based positives do either of you see with trump, and why would he be your choice (if you actually had a vote) for the next POTUS?

[PinkHouse]

paulguitar said:

PinkHouse said:

Trump has been better fiscally and on issues of national and international security than Biden and in summary the country was a much better place under his leadership than the current admin. The voters get to decide later this year so all we have to do is wait and see which way they prefer

I'm concerned that many voters are not well-educated and/or informed enough to understand context. I've had some exchanges with trump supporters on Twitter who don't appear to think beyond 'my gas was cheaper' and 'my heating oil was cheaper'. It would be completely ridiculous to expect any country to be doing better now than pre-pandemic, and the US is relatively doing well.


As far as international security goes, trump was scary. He is beholden to Putin, leading to some very embarrassing scenes. His baiting of Kim Jong Un (another of his heroes) with his 'little rocket man' taunts was so mental that it seems scarcely possible it happened. Like a lot of his presidency, actually.

I echo your concerns and agree the taunting world leaders via tweets is childish, however Kim is doing more missile testing now than at any point during Trump's presidency and the situation in the South China Sea continues to escalate under Biden's admin. Likewise for the situation in Russia/Ukraine, the Middle East not to mention all the militias currently springing up around Central Africa. If the price to pay for a relatively peaceful world is the occasional embarrassing tweet then that's preferable to the current situation

[CambsBill]

PinkHouse said:

Trump has been better fiscally and on issues of national and international security than Biden and in summary the country was a much better place under his leadership than the current admin. The voters get to decide later this year so all we have to do is wait and see which way they prefer

Fiscally? He increased the US national debt by 8 TRILLION Dollars, having promised before the 2016 election that he'd reduce the debt. That's a 40% increase in the gross national debt in a single term. Can the USA afford for him to be president again?

[Countdown]

PinkHouse said:

There are personal traits of his that I like and also traits that I dislike. That goes for his track record too, but it's not going to change any minds here so I don't see the point in sharing my opinion on him

What personal traits of his do you like? I’m genuinely curious as I can’t think of a single facet of his personality that isn’t vile.

[PinkHouse]

dvs_dave said:

PinkHouse said:

cayman-black said:

Pink this is the anti Trump thread so dont waste your time here.

Unfortunately seems to be that way. As soon as I post the indisputable facts that Trump is ahead in recent election and battleground polls, I get accused of the grave sin of having a 5 year old account which is baffling as I didn't realise that was somehow an insult. I can see why most others have stopped engaging as you can't really have any good discourse here so it's utterly pointless.

So you’re both pro-trump, or do you identify as the more typical “I’m not a fan of trump but…” trump fan?

Either way, what genuine fact based positives do either of you see with trump, and why would he be your choice (if you actually had a vote) for the next POTUS?

Oh I'm definitely pro-Trump, the only stipulation I made is that it doesn't mean I agree with every single action of his, which is a similar standard I hold other people to. In terms of fact based positives, the only problem with stating mine is that what might be a fact to me is going to be seen as an opinion by those that disagree so it's just really fruitless, as no minds will be changed here