45th President Of The United States, Donald Trump (Vol. 14)

[Chimune]

PinkHouse said:

Chimune said:

PinkHouse - if biden wins somehow, why would that be?

If he wins then it's because he was more popular and focused time/money on the right battles, similar to every other election

Thanks.

[PinkHouse]

tangerine_sedge said:

off_again said:

PinkHouse said:

In other news Trump is ahead in every single battleground state, hope you enjoy the upcoming debate too

Unfortunately that is just not true. Even Fox News had to admit that recent polling had Biden ahead.

The thing is that Professor Lichtman has already indicated that Biden is his favorite to win:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elect...

He's been right the last 9 times, and there is a lot that can go wrong before November, but his key indicators show that Biden is still the favorite to win, so lets see. I certainly dont have enough experience in this area, but if we have learned anything in the last 9-10 years of US politics, its that pollsters get it wrong frequently.

I'd be surprised if Biden didn't win. Biden beat trump last time, and since then trump has triggered an insurrection, SCOTUS have reversed Roe vs Wade, trump has been judged a felon and a rapist in a court of law, his rallies are visibly smaller, his campaign funds have reduced, and in the last few months he's obviously struggling with his health and mental abilities. Also Biden has the incumbents advantage this time and fundamentally hasn't been a bad president. Meanwhile trump is pushing a virtual Christian Nationalist dictatorship.

In summary, trump has done lots of things to turn-off voters, and absolutely nothing to attract new voters.

Edited by tangerine_sedge on Monday 24th June 16:41

Even if we grant all of that to be true, isn't that a sad indictment of Biden that it's even this close despite all of that?

[5 In a Row]

Mortarboard said:

CNN reporting that the Biden campaign has outspent Trump 3:1 on ads since supertuesday (92m vs 34 m)

Locally, I haven't seen any protrump TV ads. It's all been local reps.

M.

I read earlier that some reclusive 80-something billionaire had given Trump's campaign $50M at the end of May.

I presume Trump's had his people check that the guy isn't sleepy or struggling mentally, otherwise they should give the money back

[Whoozit]

PinkHouse said:

tangerine_sedge said:

off_again said:

PinkHouse said:

In other news Trump is ahead in every single battleground state, hope you enjoy the upcoming debate too

Unfortunately that is just not true. Even Fox News had to admit that recent polling had Biden ahead.

The thing is that Professor Lichtman has already indicated that Biden is his favorite to win:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elect...

He's been right the last 9 times, and there is a lot that can go wrong before November, but his key indicators show that Biden is still the favorite to win, so lets see. I certainly dont have enough experience in this area, but if we have learned anything in the last 9-10 years of US politics, its that pollsters get it wrong frequently.

I'd be surprised if Biden didn't win. Biden beat trump last time, and since then trump has triggered an insurrection, SCOTUS have reversed Roe vs Wade, trump has been judged a felon and a rapist in a court of law, his rallies are visibly smaller, his campaign funds have reduced, and in the last few months he's obviously struggling with his health and mental abilities. Also Biden has the incumbents advantage this time and fundamentally hasn't been a bad president. Meanwhile trump is pushing a virtual Christian Nationalist dictatorship.

In summary, trump has done lots of things to turn-off voters, and absolutely nothing to attract new voters.

Edited by tangerine_sedge on Monday 24th June 16:41

Even if we grant all of that to be true, isn't that a sad indictment of Biden that it's even this close despite all of that?

In a fiercely tribal political system, which every expert tells us depends on a few thousand people in a few swing states? Surely not that surprising.

[dukeboy749r]

PinkHouse said:

cayman-black said:

Pink this is the anti Trump thread so dont waste your time here.

Unfortunately seems to be that way. As soon as I post the indisputable facts that Trump is ahead in recent election and battleground polls, I get accused of the grave sin of having a 5 year old account which is baffling as I didn't realise that was somehow an insult. I can see why most others have stopped engaging as you can't really have any good discourse here so it's utterly pointless.

You really love teasing...

What's your stage name?

[dobbo_]

cayman-black said:

Pink this is the anti Trump thread so dont waste your time here.

Alternatively don't come in here baiting ignoring replies and generally trying to cause trouble.

Anyone with a valid opinion is always welcome we have had many many alternative voices who have come in engaged in debate and generally lifted the quality of the thread.

Saying that Trump is going to win and then fking off is not doing that.

And to be clear Trump is not going to win all the swing states and is not miles ahead in the polls.

Finally why would you want him to be? I won't wait for an answer.

[RustyMX5]

The following list highlights why you can't assume that Trump (or Biden) is ahead in the polls because the typical sample size is a tiny percentage of the Registered Voters. And when you break it down further there's a reasonable probability that the poll was conducted in a red or blue county within a state.

The list below gives the State, the number of registered voters and a percentage of what 1000 voters represents against the whole. As you can see, the percentages are minuscule. And for the avoidance of doubt the registered voters were accurate as of November 2023 so should be fairly ok

State	Registered Voters	Percentage of RV vs 1000 Sample
Alabama	3466701	0.0288458681611134
Alaska	537615	0.186006714842406
Arizona	4206639	0.0237719471530597
Arkansas	1576910	0.0634151600281563
California	22114456	0.00452192900426762
Colorado	3839945	0.0260420396646306
Connecticut	2317657	0.0431470230495712
Delaware	718772	0.139126176311821
Florida	14609682	0.00684477595063329
Georgia	7279310	0.0137375657857682
Hawaii	767559	0.130283144357632
Idaho	923517	0.108281710028077
Illinois	8224350	0.0121590156060965
Indiana	4305933	0.0232237705510049
Iowa	2083979	0.0479851284489911
Kansas	1802893	0.0554664087108886
Kentucky	3142316	0.0318236612740412
Louisiana	2854280	0.0350351051753857
Maine	1039517	0.0961985229678784
Maryland	4135597	0.0241803057696386
Massachusetts	4578845	0.0218395687121971
Michigan	7721482	0.0129508817089776
Minnesota	3514355	0.028454723555247
Mississippi	1932172	0.0517552267603505
Missouri	4047817	0.0247046741490537
Montana	677865	0.147521999218133
Nebraska	1181974	0.0846042298730767
Nevada	2057615	0.0485999567460385
New Hampshire	1000925	0.0999075854834278
New Jersey	6112548	0.0163597897308945
New Mexico	1235665	0.0809280832588121
New York	14520476	0.00688682657510677
North Carolina	6832197	0.01463658029767
North Dakota	422819	0.236507820131073
Ohio	7519199	0.0132992889269189
Oklahoma	2116074	0.0472573265396201
Oregon	3284006	0.0304506142802419
Pennsylvania	8170351	0.0122393762520117
Rhode Island	734914	0.136070342924478
South Carolina	3403082	0.0293851279516626
South Dakota	580051	0.172398633913225
Tennessee	4166638	0.024000165121136
Texas	16625506	0.00601485452532994
Utah	1520941	0.0657487700048851
Vermont	462397	0.216264378877891
Virginia	5743089	0.017412232336988
Washington	4970937	0.0201169316770661
West Virginia	1092051	0.0915708149161532
Wisconsin	4772962	0.0209513505450075
Wyoming	286354	0.349218100672594

https://independentvoterproject.org/map

If you're assuming that the polls are accurate, I'm sorry to say you're deluding yourself. At best, they could be considered as being a rough indication.

[paulguitar]

cayman-black said:

Pink this is the anti Trump thread so dont waste your time here.

What is it about trump that you like?

[Al Gorithum]

paulguitar said:

What is it about trump that you like?

To be fair, I know quite a few people who like Trump. They're all thick. Every single one of them.

[paulguitar]

Al Gorithum said:

paulguitar said:

What is it about trump that you like?

To be fair, I know quite a few people who like Trump. They're all thick. Every single one of them.

Well, hopefully, CB will not be thick and will make a case for trump.

[PinkHouse]

RustyMX5 said:

The following list highlights why you can't assume that Trump (or Biden) is ahead in the polls because the typical sample size is a tiny percentage of the Registered Voters. And when you break it down further there's a reasonable probability that the poll was conducted in a red or blue county within a state.

The list below gives the State, the number of registered voters and a percentage of what 1000 voters represents against the whole. As you can see, the percentages are minuscule. And for the avoidance of doubt the registered voters were accurate as of November 2023 so should be fairly ok

State	Registered Voters	Percentage of RV vs 1000 Sample
Alabama	3466701	0.0288458681611134
Alaska	537615	0.186006714842406
Arizona	4206639	0.0237719471530597
Arkansas	1576910	0.0634151600281563
California	22114456	0.00452192900426762
Colorado	3839945	0.0260420396646306
Connecticut	2317657	0.0431470230495712
Delaware	718772	0.139126176311821
Florida	14609682	0.00684477595063329
Georgia	7279310	0.0137375657857682
Hawaii	767559	0.130283144357632
Idaho	923517	0.108281710028077
Illinois	8224350	0.0121590156060965
Indiana	4305933	0.0232237705510049
Iowa	2083979	0.0479851284489911
Kansas	1802893	0.0554664087108886
Kentucky	3142316	0.0318236612740412
Louisiana	2854280	0.0350351051753857
Maine	1039517	0.0961985229678784
Maryland	4135597	0.0241803057696386
Massachusetts	4578845	0.0218395687121971
Michigan	7721482	0.0129508817089776
Minnesota	3514355	0.028454723555247
Mississippi	1932172	0.0517552267603505
Missouri	4047817	0.0247046741490537
Montana	677865	0.147521999218133
Nebraska	1181974	0.0846042298730767
Nevada	2057615	0.0485999567460385
New Hampshire	1000925	0.0999075854834278
New Jersey	6112548	0.0163597897308945
New Mexico	1235665	0.0809280832588121
New York	14520476	0.00688682657510677
North Carolina	6832197	0.01463658029767
North Dakota	422819	0.236507820131073
Ohio	7519199	0.0132992889269189
Oklahoma	2116074	0.0472573265396201
Oregon	3284006	0.0304506142802419
Pennsylvania	8170351	0.0122393762520117
Rhode Island	734914	0.136070342924478
South Carolina	3403082	0.0293851279516626
South Dakota	580051	0.172398633913225
Tennessee	4166638	0.024000165121136
Texas	16625506	0.00601485452532994
Utah	1520941	0.0657487700048851
Vermont	462397	0.216264378877891
Virginia	5743089	0.017412232336988
Washington	4970937	0.0201169316770661
West Virginia	1092051	0.0915708149161532
Wisconsin	4772962	0.0209513505450075
Wyoming	286354	0.349218100672594

https://independentvoterproject.org/map

If you're assuming that the polls are accurate, I'm sorry to say you're deluding yourself. At best, they could be considered as being a rough indication.

Okay but this doesn't preclude their discussion. That's why they usually include a margin of error which is right most of the time

[PinkHouse]

paulguitar said:

Al Gorithum said:

paulguitar said:

What is it about trump that you like?

To be fair, I know quite a few people who like Trump. They're all thick. Every single one of them.

Well, hopefully, CB will not be thick and will make a case for trump.

I also know a few people that like trump and they're all incredibly intelligent. The thing with anecdotes is that they are essentially meaningless in arguments, this includes my own personal anecdote in the previous sentence

[paulguitar]

PinkHouse said:

paulguitar said:

Al Gorithum said:

paulguitar said:

What is it about trump that you like?

To be fair, I know quite a few people who like Trump. They're all thick. Every single one of them.

Well, hopefully, CB will not be thick and will make a case for trump.

I also know a few people that like trump and they're all incredibly intelligent. The thing with anecdotes is that they are essentially meaningless in arguments, this includes my own personal anecdote in the previous sentence

I'm fascinated that anyone could support trump, but I am completely open to hearing an argument about why they do. I've been awaiting that since he fired up his political career with his 'birther' lie campaign.

[PinkHouse]

paulguitar said:

cayman-black said:

Pink this is the anti Trump thread so dont waste your time here.

What is it about trump that you like?

There are personal traits of his that I like and also traits that I dislike. That goes for his track record too, but it's not going to change any minds here so I don't see the point in sharing my opinion on him

[paulguitar]

PinkHouse said:

paulguitar said:

cayman-black said:

Pink this is the anti Trump thread so dont waste your time here.

What is it about trump that you like?

There are personal traits of his that I like and also traits that I dislike. That goes for his track record too, but it's not going to change any minds here so I don't see the point in sharing my opinion on him

You're on the right thread to discuss it. I accept that it's one-sided here, for obvious reasons, but if you can make a case for trump I'd be interested to read it.

[PinkHouse]

paulguitar said:

PinkHouse said:

paulguitar said:

cayman-black said:

Pink this is the anti Trump thread so dont waste your time here.

What is it about trump that you like?

There are personal traits of his that I like and also traits that I dislike. That goes for his track record too, but it's not going to change any minds here so I don't see the point in sharing my opinion on him

You're on the right thread to discuss it. I accept that it's one-sided here, for obvious reasons, but if you can make a case for trump I'd be interested to read it.

Trump has been better fiscally and on issues of national and international security than Biden and in summary the country was a much better place under his leadership than the current admin. The voters get to decide later this year so all we have to do is wait and see which way they prefer

[Mortarboard]

PinkHouse said:

Trump has been better fiscally and on issues of national and international security than Biden and in summary the country was a much better place under his leadership than the current admin. The voters get to decide later this year so all we have to do is wait and see which way they prefer

What was your thoughts on the Helsinki meeting with putin?

M.

[PinkHouse]

Mortarboard said:

PinkHouse said:

Trump has been better fiscally and on issues of national and international security than Biden and in summary the country was a much better place under his leadership than the current admin. The voters get to decide later this year so all we have to do is wait and see which way they prefer

What was your thoughts on the Helsinki meeting with putin?

M.

It's certainly an infinitely better situation where world leaders can sit across the table for a discussion than in a proxy war that costs hundreds of thousands of casualties

[Strangely Brown]

PinkHouse said:

Trump has been better fiscally and on issues of national and international security than Biden and in summary the country was a much better place under his leadership than the current admin. The voters get to decide later this year so all we have to do is wait and see which way they prefer

You think that stealing classified documents, storing them in a toilet and showing them to people without clearance is better for national and international security?

[paulguitar]

PinkHouse said:

Trump has been better fiscally and on issues of national and international security than Biden and in summary the country was a much better place under his leadership than the current admin. The voters get to decide later this year so all we have to do is wait and see which way they prefer

I'm concerned that many voters are not well-educated and/or informed enough to understand context. I've had some exchanges with trump supporters on Twitter who don't appear to think beyond 'my gas was cheaper' and 'my heating oil was cheaper'. It would be completely ridiculous to expect any country to be doing better now than pre-pandemic, and the US is relatively doing well.


As far as international security goes, trump was scary. He is beholden to Putin, leading to some very embarrassing scenes. His baiting of Kim Jong Un (another of his heroes) with his 'little rocket man' taunts was so mental that it seems scarcely possible it happened. Like a lot of his presidency, actually.