Brexit - was it worth it? (Vol. 4)
Discussion
legzr1 said:
turbobloke said:
Have you consumed any knowledge and understanding on research methodologies and modelling techniques?
Don't bother, just look at the risible, utterly miles away predictions from economists over the past two decades.
Whether it's one country's interest base rate, or global gdp, predictions are absolute horse manure. Too many unpredictable variables are in play, including remarkably daft policymaking from remarkably daft politicians, global pandemics, wars, etc, which impact on economics nationally and internationally, such events cannot be predicted.
That's before methodology comes in, shoving gravity modelling where it doesn't belong, for example, or excluding positive influences because you're employed by the gov't and the PM or Chancellor told you to do that.
With respect to anyone identifying themselves with such credulous acceptance, if people knew these failures keep repeating, what makes them forget, and if they don't know, what makes them so credulous as to be in awe when predictions are serialy duff? Rhetorical question.
I’m wondering which statistician you used to compile the figures you used earlier when comparing your post count in this thread with others…Don't bother, just look at the risible, utterly miles away predictions from economists over the past two decades.
Whether it's one country's interest base rate, or global gdp, predictions are absolute horse manure. Too many unpredictable variables are in play, including remarkably daft policymaking from remarkably daft politicians, global pandemics, wars, etc, which impact on economics nationally and internationally, such events cannot be predicted.
That's before methodology comes in, shoving gravity modelling where it doesn't belong, for example, or excluding positive influences because you're employed by the gov't and the PM or Chancellor told you to do that.
With respect to anyone identifying themselves with such credulous acceptance, if people knew these failures keep repeating, what makes them forget, and if they don't know, what makes them so credulous as to be in awe when predictions are serialy duff? Rhetorical question.
F1GTRUeno said:
crankedup5 said:
I don’t see British people as being lazy at all, however the low end of the pay scale work, some you mention, are certainly jobs which have zero appeal in terms of, well just about everything tbh.
But we wanted rid of low paid immigrants from across the EU under the guise of taking back control for those British people who couldn't afford to work for such pittance so why isn't anyone forcing up the wages?this policy created the root of a growing division in the ‘have’s’ and have nots. This argument has been done to death over the past six years or more.
The wages are rising but now we are being hit with a high rate of inflation those wage rises are being swallowed by cost of living. Low paid immigrants would have been hit just the same as indigenous workers. Also I’ve noticed that Unions are once again flexing their muscles supporting workers in their quest for higher wages. It’s simple in reality, the ‘market’ decides, or Government.
crankedup5 said:
Just get this out of the way first, brexit was partially driven by the oversupply of cheap labour
The same cheap labour we now have a significant deficit in due to brexit? Have you ever looked at the data around where the impact of cheap labour importations actually falls? HM-2 said:
PurplePangolin said:
There is/was a difference between Belgium/UK in respect of monetary contribution to the EU
There is/was a difference between Belgium/UK in respect of the size of their economies, too. What's your point here? This observation has no bearing on anything I've said. crankedup5 said:
HM-2 said:
PurplePangolin said:
There is/was a difference between Belgium/UK in respect of monetary contribution to the EU
There is/was a difference between Belgium/UK in respect of the size of their economies, too. What's your point here? This observation has no bearing on anything I've said. HM-2 said:
crankedup5 said:
Just get this out of the way first, brexit was partially driven by the oversupply of cheap labour
The same cheap labour we now have a significant deficit in due to brexit? Have you ever looked at the data around where the impact of cheap labour importations actually falls? [/quoteYour statement regarding the shortage of labour mentions only ‘due to brexit’, perhaps you would like to advise why it is that most advanced economies are also suffering labour shortages.
I will be interested to see your ‘number crunching’ or even links that identify your statement. Yes I am well aware of where the cheap labour immigrants were used.
HM-2 said:
crankedup5 said:
HM-2 said:
PurplePangolin said:
There is/was a difference between Belgium/UK in respect of monetary contribution to the EU
There is/was a difference between Belgium/UK in respect of the size of their economies, too. What's your point here? This observation has no bearing on anything I've said. crankedup5 said:
Yes it’s obvious that when you have simple questions asked of your position you appear to mysteriously develop reading and comprehension issues.
What "reading comprehension issues"? If you can't even explain your own posts, what are you doing here?crankedup5 said:
It really is a very simple train of discussion posed.
Is it? I made the point that Belgium currently seems to export more than the UK, despite having circa 1/5 the population.
PurplePangolin posted some absurd straw man about the size of state's EU contributions.
I pointed out that the UK and Belgian economy are different sizes.
What's your contention here? What point are you trying to make? It's completely lost on me, certainly hasn't got any relevance to the initial point I was making. But that's no surprise given that almost everything you post borders on the incoherent.
Mortarboard said:
link said:
However, Brexit is by no means the only reason for the shortages, and the pandemic, international sector-specific labour shortages, and an increase in early retirement have been more important factors.
Oh, are you sure?
link said:
Professor Chris Forde of Leeds University, said: “The reasons for the current UK labour shortages are complex. While there is some evidence that the end of free movement has contributed to shortages in some areas of the UK labour market, it is by no means the only driver. In fact, recruiting difficulties are not unique to the UK and several other countries have experienced high vacancy rates post-pandemic.”
Hmmmmmlink said:
Early evidence suggests that some employers who used to rely on EU workers and are now ineligible to recruit from overseas are starting to adjust—for example, by reducing their need for workers by turning to automation or simply producing less. Some employers have also improved pay packages, but at least so far there is no evidence that the end of free movement has increased wages across the board
Lets call that a full house of things that Brexiteers said would happen...HM-2 said:
What's your contention here? What point are you trying to make? It's completely lost on me, certainly hasn't got any relevance to the initial point I was making. But that's no surprise given that almost everything you post borders on the incoherent.
I’ve given up on this thread largely because the question at hand is happily resolved and frankly 4 volumes hasn’t introduced any blinding insights. I am a happy brexiter and content that the politics are being resolved and a new trajectory has been set.But you have some bleeding brass neck attacking TB a few pages back for the paucity of his contributions and the dead weight he brings to the ‘debate’ with posts like the above.
What exactly do you think that comment brings to the discussion?
Ridgemont said:
What exactly do you think that comment brings to the discussion?
I don't think it at all unreasonable that a poster clarify or explain their unclear post if requested. crankedup5 clearly takes issue to this view, though. I would happily address whatever point he things he's making, but vague insinuations like " it’s an interesting fact, perhaps one that you prefer not to have been expressed" in an otherwise completely opaque post don't really give me much to go on- and his follow-up response is even more obtuse. But then, you also decided to separate that line from the wider context of the post it was in. Can you explain to me the relevance of crankedup5's comment to what I said? Because it's still completely lost on me.
Edited by HM-2 on Wednesday 25th January 20:35
Vanden Saab said:
Mortarboard said:
link said:
However, Brexit is by no means the only reason for the shortages, and the pandemic, international sector-specific labour shortages, and an increase in early retirement have been more important factors.
Oh, are you sure?
link said:
Professor Chris Forde of Leeds University, said: “The reasons for the current UK labour shortages are complex. While there is some evidence that the end of free movement has contributed to shortages in some areas of the UK labour market, it is by no means the only driver. In fact, recruiting difficulties are not unique to the UK and several other countries have experienced high vacancy rates post-pandemic.”
Hmmmmmlink said:
Early evidence suggests that some employers who used to rely on EU workers and are now ineligible to recruit from overseas are starting to adjust—for example, by reducing their need for workers by turning to automation or simply producing less. Some employers have also improved pay packages, but at least so far there is no evidence that the end of free movement has increased wages across the board
Lets call that a full house of things that Brexiteers said would happen...link said:
The end of free movement has exacerbated recruitment issues faced by UK employers, a major new report from ReWAGE and the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford has shown.
Yes, recruitment is hard everywhere (pretty much)Yes, Brexit has made it worse
The two are not exclusive.
And also, to highlight one line of your quote:
link said:
at least so far there is no evidence that the end of free movement has increased wages across the board
So that's Cranked not happy then. He specifically voted leave for that.M.
Mortarboard said:
Very. First. Sentence.
Yes, Brexit has made it worse
The two are not exclusive.
And also, to highlight one line of your quote:
M.
4th on the list after Covid, international sector specific shortages and early retirement and just above getting pissed at the weekend and not turning up on Monday.link said:
The end of free movement has exacerbated recruitment issues faced by UK employers, a major new report from ReWAGE and the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford has shown.
Yes, recruitment is hard everywhere (pretty much)Yes, Brexit has made it worse
The two are not exclusive.
And also, to highlight one line of your quote:
link said:
at least so far there is no evidence that the end of free movement has increased wages across the board
So that's Cranked not happy then. He specifically voted leave for that.M.
Not across the board so some have yet to go up but according to the Guardian construction labour costs in the Uk have risen by 30% compared to less than half that in EU countries which makes Cranked and myself very happy.
Vanden Saab said:
4th on the list after Covid, international sector specific shortages and early retirement and just above getting pissed at the weekend and not turning up on Monday.
Not across the board so some have yet to go up but according to the Guardian construction labour costs in the Uk have risen by 30% compared to less than half that in EU countries which makes Cranked and myself very happy.
So in other words, you're just making up any old sNot across the board so some have yet to go up but according to the Guardian construction labour costs in the Uk have risen by 30% compared to less than half that in EU countries which makes Cranked and myself very happy.
te now, after being caught out not even reading your own quoted references.Right so.
M.
HM-2 said:
crankedup5 said:
Yes it’s obvious that when you have simple questions asked of your position you appear to mysteriously develop reading and comprehension issues.
What "reading comprehension issues"? If you can't even explain your own posts, what are you doing here?crankedup5 said:
It really is a very simple train of discussion posed.
Is it? I made the point that Belgium currently seems to export more than the UK, despite having circa 1/5 the population.
PurplePangolin posted some absurd straw man about the size of state's EU contributions.
I pointed out that the UK and Belgian economy are different sizes.
What's your contention here? What point are you trying to make? It's completely lost on me, certainly hasn't got any relevance to the initial point I was making. But that's no surprise given that almost everything you post borders on the incoherent.
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