Russia Invades Ukraine. Volume 5

[glazbagun]

isaldiri said:

TheJimi said:

Like many, i suspect a frozen conflict will be the outcome rather than anything tangible coming from a negotiating table.

Freezing the conflict in itself would be a tangible outcome if it leads to a lower intensity war where mainly it's fought along the line of conflict rather than going after civilian targets deeper in the country though.....

That's what they already had after losing Crimea. It wasn't an outcome, merely a stepping stone to further conflict.

[OutInTheShed]

glazbagun said:

That's what they already had after losing Crimea. It wasn't an outcome, merely a stepping stone to further conflict.

The question is, what would the level of 'internal' conflct be if the top level conflict became a cease-fire?

What was the true level of opposition to being occupied in Crimea, and what would it be in 'Eastern Ukraine'?

Would a 'cold war' between Russia, occupying E Ukraine, and Westen Ukraine be a fairly stable situation?
How many people in E Ukraine would be happy in a Russian-run state, how many would leg it to the West, and how many would want to fight for a United Ukraine?

[Talksteer]

Talksteer said:

Cheib said:

DrDeAtH said:

Byker28i said:

Financial Times saying that the US is set to halt all open orders for Patriot air defence systems & interceptor missiles until Ukraine has enough to defend itself from Russia’s air attacks.
https://www.ft.com/content/89fe9d6b-3a0f-42a5-af50...

Paywalled...

Yesterday's Telegraph Podcast reported that Ukraine currently has 4 Patriot systems, which is likely to increase to 7. One from the US, the Romanians have just volunteered a system they have and the Dutch are putting together another system (made up of "donations" from various countries). That combined with the US now making Ukraine the priority is good news.

I guess these systems are not just necessary for the defence on Ukrainian civilians and front line troops...it will I assume make a big difference to how the F16's are deployed. Russian jets will be a lot less active if they have to deal with Patriot.

Given that each system has a range of more than 100 miles against certain targets 7 batteries actually provides quite a bit of coverage even in a country the size of Ukraine. Particularly as the launchers can be placed a very long way from the radar.

More long-range SAMs make it a lot more hazardous for Russian fighters to stand off at medium altitude anywhere near the border. This makes missions against Ukrainian ground attack sorties with aircraft firing R37 much more hazardous.

The interesting question will be to what degree F16's can operate near the front at medium altitude hitting glide bombers. Such operations will require balls of steel as it would involve flying through S400 engagement envelopes and relying on ECM to reduce its effectiveness and also being reliant on ECM and offboard sensors to detect S400 launches and hoping that estimates of the missiles manoeuvrability at said ranges are accurate.

This assumes that the range of the AMRAAM variants that Ukraine gets are sufficiently long as to get to the point where they can hit aircraft dropping glide bombs at ranges where the F16 can still defend against the S400.

If you throw the full gumut of NATO capabilities its likely that space based ballistic missile detection can pick up the launch of an S400 (at least the largest models which are comparable to SCUDs that it has no problem picking up) and that ELINT aircraft or systems on the F16 can also pick up the S400 datalink. All of which gives the pilot time to start evading before the missile starts terminal guidance.

The other thing that could be done is flying F16's with MALDs inducing the S300/400 to engage them, leaving the MALD to get shot at while another F16 is flying low and close to the border with HARMs to attack the S400. Or outsourcing that job to ATACMS.

This scenario is one where the advantages of something slightly newer like Typhoon comes it, it could conduct a fighter sweep at a 50,000ft Mach 1.5 supercruise with a much more comprehensive ECM set up with a missile approach radar and a towed decoy. That and the Meteor means that they can stand off even further or reach further into enemy territory. The only minor annoyance is that the decoys can’t follow that flight profile.

You can imagine all the possible tricks and miss directions (e.g. fire data links to see if the aircraft starts evading, only fire S400 on overcast days so SBIRS can’t see it) that could be thrown into this mission once F16 is delivered which will be interesting to read about in 20 years or so when it starts getting de-classified.

Yeah scratch all that, interesting analysis from RUSI on the F16. The training for Ukrainian pilots is unlikely to have gotten them to the level of NATO operators, and what I'm describing above is dam busters level stuff.

Ukrainian tactics at the moment are basically low level strikes with a pop up attack and are likely heavily planned with minimal autonomy. It will be a fair while before they will be attacking targets of opportunity while defending against S300/400 and shooting at Sukhoi's.

Even in NATO air forces the ones capable of fighting double digit SAMs and Sukhoi's wouldn't be using F16's to do it (even if they are capable).

https://youtu.be/72QpCqBgrPU?si=gflnXqEePs9uXOwj

Though if we want to get a bit conspiracy theory one of the impacts of knocking out Russia's over the horizon radars is that it would reduce the risk of the Russians detecting NATO aircraft coming into Ukraine. So many interesting opportunities.......

[Adam.]

Gecko1978 said:

I am still in the Ukraine will win camp in the end there won't be any Russian men left and most of Ukraine will be rubble but despite that Russia won't win

Why would Russia run out of men before a Ukraine with a fraction of the population?

[pingu393]

Adam. said:

Gecko1978 said:

I am still in the Ukraine will win camp in the end there won't be any Russian men left and most of Ukraine will be rubble but despite that Russia won't win

Why would Russia run out of men before a Ukraine with a fraction of the population?

You are assuming an equal spread of desire to fight.

Russia probably has 20% who are willing to fight (28M). Ukraine probably has 60% willing to fight (26M). The numbers are total guesses, but you get the idea?

Ukraine will have estimated the numbers much more accurately, and they will know whether it is a lost cause, or not.

[Adam.]

Not sure willingness is really a consideration for the Russians

[Hereward]

Adam. said:

Not sure willingness is really a consideration for the Russians

Indeed. They are basically automatons who will do what they are told "for the Motherland to defeat the Nazis / decadent West" etc etc. There are endless waves of them.

[CharlesdeGaulle]

Hereward said:

Indeed. They are basically automatons who will do what they are told "for the Motherland to defeat the Nazis / decadent West" etc etc. There are endless waves of them.

And don't forget that Ukraine was awash with Nazis, hence Putin's selfless campaign to rid Europe of this scourge. What a man!

[Pistom]

TheJimi said:

The problem with that is that Ukraine are in the weaker position, in terms of negotiation. The Russians are sitting on fairly big chunks of Ukraine with Ukraine having no way of punting them out.

Ukraine are morally right in telling the Russians where they can stick their terms, but strategically, they can't back it up. At the moment anyway.

The obvious question from that is - will that change?

I hope it does, but I have my doubts.

Like many, i suspect a frozen conflict will be the outcome rather than anything tangible coming from a negotiating table.

Edited by TheJimi on Sunday 23 June 10:53

This pretty much sums up my thoughts too.

But the loss to both sides surely is greater than anything they can gain.

There must be a way to incentivise both sides to stop this madness.

Rather than throwing money and weapons at killing people, money and trading incentives to stop killing.

Nether Russian nor the West seem to be making efforts in those directions.

[Killboy]

I think the Ukrainians are a lot more motivated than the Russians. What does Russia lose if they give up?

[Mannginger]

Great news!

BBC News - Ukraine says it destroyed Russian drone base
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c511ny02qjwo

[Trash_panda]

If you was the freeze the conflict now at the current battle lines, who controls the oil fields in the east?

I cba to look and I know you guys religiously follow it.

[Mannginger]

Russia I think.

Edit. Well, about honours even. The richest ones are in Russian haha but there's a good field still under Ukrainian hands. Albeit close to the front line/border.

Edited by Mannginger on Sunday 23 June 18:04

[Wacky Racer]

Watch this link to a Newsnight programme from ten years ago.

Quite eye opening as the Nazis were gaining ground in Ukraine pre invasion, and corruption in high places.

[hidetheelephants]

Germany has neo nazis, I'd not suggest we invade. This isn't a resource war, it's a good old-fashioned imperialist steal land and kidnap people war.

[RichFN2]

Looks like some sort of potential terrorist attack in several parts of Dagestan, Russia (near Chechnya and Azerbaijan)

Reports a church and synagogue were set fire to, and several people have been killed by multiple gunmen.

https://t.me/combatfootageua/17487?single
https://t.me/pilotblog/13091?single
https://t.me/pilotblog/13095

Also happens to be a year ago that Wagner went on the crazy march to Moscow

Edit to add that 40 hostages are held up in an orthodox church in Makhachkala( a beach attack was stopped by police in this city earlier), and shootouts continue in Derbent. Both are on the Caspian sea near Azerbaijan.

So far 9 people have been killed.
https://t.me/pilotblog/13103?single

Edited by RichFN2 on Sunday 23 June 19:21

[Wacky Racer]

hidetheelephants said:

Germany has neo nazis, I'd not suggest we invade. This isn't a resource war, it's a good old-fashioned imperialist steal land and kidnap people war.

I fully agree with you, but it is an interesting watch nonetheless.

There is an ultra right wing element in most European countries including The UK.

[Gecko1978]

Hereward said:

Adam. said:

Not sure willingness is really a consideration for the Russians

Indeed. They are basically automatons who will do what they are told "for the Motherland to defeat the Nazis / decadent West" etc etc. There are endless waves of them.

I think the only advantage having more men Russia is having is on the socre charts they can literally loose more. But in time thier population which already is subject to a demoographic time bomb is going to be hollowed out more. Ukraine have a reason to fight it is there country and they are being drip fed some advanced tech. It does appear now the west want this to be a slow bleed. Russia are clearly no threat to a united nato, mot of thier navy is at the bottom of the sea and Nato's is not plus the advanced air power of nato that actually functions.

In the end Russia are going to loose but how long that tkaes I dont know

[Rumblestripe]

Gecko1978 said:

In the end Russia are going to loose but how long that tkaes I dont know

I would expect that they know that they cannot win. The "last hope" is that they can get the Orange Idiot into the White House. I suspect that by Jan 2025 it would be too late any way? But even that is looking less and less likely by the day.

Putin is of course a dead man if he loses. He knows this and he is prepared to spill any amount of Russian and Ukrainian blood to delay his demise. I see three possible end games for Vlad

1. Suicide
2. Offed by a rival
3. Flees to a sympathetic country where he will ultimately meet his fate when the FSB track him down.

Place your bets.

[Iamnotkloot]

No one wants Russian children to die but the families were taking a big risk holidaying in a war zone.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/06/23/...