Russia Invades Ukraine. Volume 5

Russia Invades Ukraine. Volume 5

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Discussion

Mannginger

9,225 posts

260 months

Friday 21st June
quotequote all
DrDeAtH said:
Byker28i said:
Financial Times saying that the US is set to halt all open orders for Patriot air defence systems & interceptor missiles until Ukraine has enough to defend itself from Russia’s air attacks.
https://www.ft.com/content/89fe9d6b-3a0f-42a5-af50...
Paywalled...
https://archive.is/00HJR

BrettMRC

4,230 posts

163 months

BikeBikeBIke

8,527 posts

118 months

Friday 21st June
quotequote all
So, NK give weapons to Russia and that's good.

SK give weapons to Ukraine and that's bad.

Has he thought this through?

sisu

2,662 posts

176 months

Friday 21st June
quotequote all
BrettMRC said:
Which means that South Korea should definitely donate arms to Ukraine given that Russia will be offering items that North Korea is threatening them with long term.

What is Russia going to do? China and South Korea have a strong relationship in trade, stronger than Russia in many companies, similar to what was happening in Europe and given the idea of doing nothing, whilst North Korea does would be counter productive. If there is any heat by North Korea towards the south the main loser in this is China as the last thing they need are sanctions or loss of trade to the wider globe and they get stuck with the angry place with no money?


Digga

40,665 posts

286 months

Friday 21st June
quotequote all
sisu said:
BrettMRC said:
Which means that South Korea should definitely donate arms to Ukraine given that Russia will be offering items that North Korea is threatening them with long term.

What is Russia going to do? China and South Korea have a strong relationship in trade, stronger than Russia in many companies, similar to what was happening in Europe and given the idea of doing nothing, whilst North Korea does would be counter productive. If there is any heat by North Korea towards the south the main loser in this is China as the last thing they need are sanctions or loss of trade to the wider globe and they get stuck with the angry place with no money?
One assumes there are way and means, well behind closed doors, that China has to ensuring NK know, in no uncertain terms, what any games they might play with SK will result in.

NoddyonNitrous

2,145 posts

235 months

Friday 21st June
quotequote all
Bright Halo said:
borcy said:
Very clever
Would be good if it could then retreat to a safe distance and detonate it.
With all the shrapnel and debris lying about, I wonder how discriminating they will be in identifying a mine.

Bathroom_Security

3,369 posts

120 months

Friday 21st June
quotequote all
sisu said:
What is Russia going to do?
Crack open a case of nuclear threats and issue threatening statements to the west.

sisu

2,662 posts

176 months

Friday 21st June
quotequote all
People complain about the fact that Russia is side stepping sanctions with oil/gas. Well yes, in theory America could up production and everyone gives a firm closure of Russian shipments. But this sudden shock would effect domestic prices too. Its the same with North Korea. There is a reason why China aren't in filling NK like Russia as its not economic to do so.

Also Putin and Russia are not looking anywhere long term at the moment. There was a reason supplying NK with fireworks would upset the neighbours China and SK this will make future Russian deals sour. In the same way the state take over of businesses in Russia might seem a great idea in the moment. It torches anyone coming back with anything for decades.

TheJimi

25,188 posts

246 months

Friday 21st June
quotequote all
All this is just playground st with bigger sticks.

Humans really are morons.

jshell

11,213 posts

208 months

Friday 21st June
quotequote all
Humanity on the battlefield:

I've just watched the video of the soldier who was surrendering and following a drone. Then another drone from his own side comes in and explodes in an attempt to kill him. It only injures him. The side he was trying to surrender to then sends more drones to the injured soldier with water, painkillers and even a radio.

What a f'in world!

Cheib

23,407 posts

178 months

Friday 21st June
quotequote all
DrDeAtH said:
Byker28i said:
Financial Times saying that the US is set to halt all open orders for Patriot air defence systems & interceptor missiles until Ukraine has enough to defend itself from Russia’s air attacks.
https://www.ft.com/content/89fe9d6b-3a0f-42a5-af50...
Paywalled...
Yesterday's Telegraph Podcast reported that Ukraine currently has 4 Patriot systems, which is likely to increase to 7. One from the US, the Romanians have just volunteered a system they have and the Dutch are putting together another system (made up of "donations" from various countries). That combined with the US now making Ukraine the priority is good news.

I guess these systems are not just necessary for the defence on Ukrainian civilians and front line troops...it will I assume make a big difference to how the F16's are deployed. Russian jets will be a lot less active if they have to deal with Patriot.

Edited by Cheib on Friday 21st June 13:12

Talksteer

4,994 posts

236 months

Friday 21st June
quotequote all
Cheib said:
DrDeAtH said:
Byker28i said:
Financial Times saying that the US is set to halt all open orders for Patriot air defence systems & interceptor missiles until Ukraine has enough to defend itself from Russia’s air attacks.
https://www.ft.com/content/89fe9d6b-3a0f-42a5-af50...
Paywalled...
Yesterday's Telegraph Podcast reported that Ukraine currently has 4 Patriot systems, which is likely to increase to 7. One from the US, the Romanians have just volunteered a system they have and the Dutch are putting together another system (made up of "donations" from various countries). That combined with the US now making Ukraine the priority is good news.

I guess these systems are not just necessary for the defence on Ukrainian civilians and front line troops...it will I assume make a big difference to how the F16's are deployed. Russian jets will be a lot less active if they have to deal with Patriot.
Given that each system has a range of more than 100 miles against certain targets 7 batteries actually provides quite a bit of coverage even in a country the size of Ukraine. Particularly as the launchers can be placed a very long way from the radar.

More long-range SAMs make it a lot more hazardous for Russian fighters to stand off at medium altitude anywhere near the border. This makes missions against Ukrainian ground attack sorties with aircraft firing R37 much more hazardous.

The interesting question will be to what degree F16's can operate near the front at medium altitude hitting glide bombers. Such operations will require balls of steel as it would involve flying through S400 engagement envelopes and relying on ECM to reduce its effectiveness and also being reliant on ECM and offboard sensors to detect S400 launches and hoping that estimates of the missiles manoeuvrability at said ranges are accurate.

This assumes that the range of the AMRAAM variants that Ukraine gets are sufficiently long as to get to the point where they can hit aircraft dropping glide bombs at ranges where the F16 can still defend against the S400.

If you throw the full gumut of NATO capabilities its likely that space based ballistic missile detection can pick up the launch of an S400 (at least the largest models which are comparable to SCUDs that it has no problem picking up) and that ELINT aircraft or systems on the F16 can also pick up the S400 datalink. All of which gives the pilot time to start evading before the missile starts terminal guidance.

The other thing that could be done is flying F16's with MALDs inducing the S300/400 to engage them, leaving the MALD to get shot at while another F16 is flying low and close to the border with HARMs to attack the S400. Or outsourcing that job to ATACMS.

This scenario is one where the advantages of something slightly newer like Typhoon comes it, it could conduct a fighter sweep at a 50,000ft Mach 1.5 supercruise with a much more comprehensive ECM set up with a missile approach radar and a towed decoy. That and the Meteor means that they can stand off even further or reach further into enemy territory. The only minor annoyance is that the decoys can’t follow that flight profile.

You can imagine all the possible tricks and miss directions (e.g. fire data links to see if the aircraft starts evading, only fire S400 on overcast days so SBIRS can’t see it) that could be thrown into this mission once F16 is delivered which will be interesting to read about in 20 years or so when it starts getting de-classified.


Cheib

23,407 posts

178 months

Friday 21st June
quotequote all
You know a lot more about this stuff than me that is for sure.

The S300 and S400 batteries that have already been hit by ATACMS. Have these been identified by local “resistance” in place like Crimea or can they identify them with some of the Airborne resources that NATO have flying around in the Black Sea ?

I think the Swede’s are supplying a couple of planes to help the F16’s function more efficiently. What role do they play ?

hidetheelephants

25,849 posts

196 months

Friday 21st June
quotequote all
Cheib said:
You know a lot more about this stuff than me that is for sure.

The S300 and S400 batteries that have already been hit by ATACMS. Have these been identified by local “resistance” in place like Crimea or can they identify them with some of the Airborne resources that NATO have flying around in the Black Sea ?

I think the Swede’s are supplying a couple of planes to help the F16’s function more efficiently. What role do they play ?
The SAAB 340s are AEW platforms although I dare say they have ELINT functions too.

Hill92

4,293 posts

193 months

Friday 21st June
quotequote all
hidetheelephants said:
Cheib said:
You know a lot more about this stuff than me that is for sure.

The S300 and S400 batteries that have already been hit by ATACMS. Have these been identified by local “resistance” in place like Crimea or can they identify them with some of the Airborne resources that NATO have flying around in the Black Sea ?

I think the Swede’s are supplying a couple of planes to help the F16’s function more efficiently. What role do they play ?
The SAAB 340s are AEW platforms although I dare say they have ELINT functions too.
As well as NATO SIGINT aircraft in the Black Sea and NATO airspace bordering Ukraine the US and France have SIGINT satellites. But these days anyone can use publicly available satellite imagery (OSINT - Open Source Intelligence) to identify the characteristic interference these radars cause on satellite imagery.

https://asiatimes.com/2024/05/using-public-satelli...

DrDeAtH

3,597 posts

235 months

Friday 21st June
quotequote all
Mannginger said:
Thanks thumbup

nikaiyo2

4,823 posts

198 months

Saturday 22nd June
quotequote all
Good to see russia is finally breaking out the good stuff, they will be at the channel by Christmas.

(SFW I would think Ukrainian showing a captured turtle tank)

https://youtu.be/Zk7JrM2nLEg

Pretty shocking really.

RichFN2

3,496 posts

182 months

Saturday 22nd June
quotequote all
nikaiyo2 said:
Good to see russia is finally breaking out the good stuff, they will be at the channel by Christmas.

(SFW I would think Ukrainian showing a captured turtle tank)

https://youtu.be/Zk7JrM2nLEg

Pretty shocking really.
I assumed the turtle tank was ideal for advancing through Ukrainian lines, and to be used as a proper tank by the Russians once they have fully captured the local area. The one in that clip is completely pointless, what a waste of diesel!

We know the equipment they are using is soviet era and bad, but didn't know it was 'that' bad.

sisu

2,662 posts

176 months

Saturday 22nd June
quotequote all
South Korea produces 200,000 high quality 155mm shells per year. They will be donating an unspecified amount to Ukraine now that Russia have given the North naughty stuff.

It is also a good illustration or industry ramping up in the wrong way for Russia. Yes they have North Korea sending in badly made shells, but Ukraine are now getting their own good quality donation from a pool of 3,400,000 shells without having to ask or strike a deal with South Korea.
They even have a theme song

https://x.com/ManiatiGeorge/status/180422453728796...

Edited by sisu on Saturday 22 June 12:09

s2kjock

1,719 posts

150 months

Saturday 22nd June
quotequote all
sisu said:
South Korea produces 200,000 high quality 155mm shells per year.
Who is using these at the moment, or are they just for training, export local "allies"?