Russia Invades Ukraine. Volume 5
Discussion
pingu393 said:
borcy said:
I've not felt that folks have appreciated that ruzzia can only keep feeding the UKR special operation if they leave the back door wide open.They will get to the point where they know that if anyone wants to walk into the motherland's kitchen, there will be nothing to prevent it. That's when it will get really dangerous for the rest of the world.
The more equipment that he pours into Ukraine, the more he is leaving his own borders weak. We can see this with air defence, but I saw a report that 80% of the troops that were stationed near Finlands border have been 'redeployed'. Ok, so the Finns arent going to invade Russia any time soon, but try doing that in some of the more fractious states in central and western asia! All it takes is a little agitation and suddenly Russia is under threat of losing territory there too!
Russia has always been a 'hard' power. Force, corruption, bribery and murder. They get what they want by violence (list they have done so many times in the past). Now that this is waining with current military strategy, I cant see them reverting to the 'soft' power through influence, politics and business trade. The cupboard is bare and most people are ready to take a pop given how they have been treated for the last 10/20/30/50/100 years!
And thats before we consider things like ISIS, who I am sure are rubbing their evil little hands together with the opportunities that are going to present them in Russia in the coming months.
off_again said:
Bingo.
The more equipment that he pours into Ukraine, the more he is leaving his own borders weak. We can see this with air defence, but I saw a report that 80% of the troops that were stationed near Finlands border have been 'redeployed'. Ok, so the Finns arent going to invade Russia any time soon, but try doing that in some of the more fractious states in central and western asia! All it takes is a little agitation and suddenly Russia is under threat of losing territory there too!
Russia has always been a 'hard' power. Force, corruption, bribery and murder. They get what they want by violence (list they have done so many times in the past). Now that this is waining with current military strategy, I cant see them reverting to the 'soft' power through influence, politics and business trade. The cupboard is bare and most people are ready to take a pop given how they have been treated for the last 10/20/30/50/100 years!
And thats before we consider things like ISIS, who I am sure are rubbing their evil little hands together with the opportunities that are going to present them in Russia in the coming months.
Excluding ISIS or whichever muslim group is flavour of the month they really aren't. You may wish that to be so, but its not about to happen. The central Asian states bordering Russia, Kazakhstan & mongolia are not about to start biting off bits of russian land. China doesn't need to, it just has more & more ethnic Chinese populating eastern Russia. They play the long gameThe more equipment that he pours into Ukraine, the more he is leaving his own borders weak. We can see this with air defence, but I saw a report that 80% of the troops that were stationed near Finlands border have been 'redeployed'. Ok, so the Finns arent going to invade Russia any time soon, but try doing that in some of the more fractious states in central and western asia! All it takes is a little agitation and suddenly Russia is under threat of losing territory there too!
Russia has always been a 'hard' power. Force, corruption, bribery and murder. They get what they want by violence (list they have done so many times in the past). Now that this is waining with current military strategy, I cant see them reverting to the 'soft' power through influence, politics and business trade. The cupboard is bare and most people are ready to take a pop given how they have been treated for the last 10/20/30/50/100 years!
And thats before we consider things like ISIS, who I am sure are rubbing their evil little hands together with the opportunities that are going to present them in Russia in the coming months.
Who else is going to "take a pop" Georgia, Azerbaijan, Estonia, Latvia, Finland?
Fractures within Russia is more likely particularly those with larger Muslim populations though still a low probability.
All i would say in regards to the Karelia region this is illustrated by our former Foreign Minister who is our now current President. His speech in English breaking down where we went wrong, what we got right with Russia. Bear in mind this was 2023..
This idea that we won't act or won't move is not ruled out either. As he explains why we are not looking at Germany/Italy/France or Spain for guidance on dealing with Russia in the future. But a much more firmer hand.
This idea that we won't act or won't move is not ruled out either. As he explains why we are not looking at Germany/Italy/France or Spain for guidance on dealing with Russia in the future. But a much more firmer hand.
off_again said:
They get what they want by violence (list they have done so many times in the past). Now that this is waining with current military strategy, I cant see them reverting to the 'soft' power through influence, politics and business trade. The cupboard is bare and most people are ready to take a pop given how they have been treated for the last 10/20/30/50/100 years!
But they also control the narrative and the media. People believe what they are told. I'm not convinced that there is a critical mass of rebellion in Russia. Malaise, frustration, yes but not an uprising?GT03ROB said:
Excluding ISIS or whichever muslim group is flavour of the month they really aren't. You may wish that to be so, but its not about to happen. The central Asian states bordering Russia, Kazakhstan & mongolia are not about to start biting off bits of russian land. China doesn't need to, it just has more & more ethnic Chinese populating eastern Russia. They play the long game
Who else is going to "take a pop" Georgia, Azerbaijan, Estonia, Latvia, Finland?
Fractures within Russia is more likely particularly those with larger Muslim populations though still a low probability.
Spot on, lots of wishful thinking on hereWho else is going to "take a pop" Georgia, Azerbaijan, Estonia, Latvia, Finland?
Fractures within Russia is more likely particularly those with larger Muslim populations though still a low probability.
GT03ROB said:
Excluding ISIS or whichever muslim group is flavour of the month they really aren't. You may wish that to be so, but its not about to happen. The central Asian states bordering Russia, Kazakhstan & mongolia are not about to start biting off bits of russian land. China doesn't need to, it just has more & more ethnic Chinese populating eastern Russia. They play the long game
Who else is going to "take a pop" Georgia, Azerbaijan, Estonia, Latvia, Finland?
Fractures within Russia is more likely particularly those with larger Muslim populations though still a low probability.
China has expressed interest in reclaiming lands Who else is going to "take a pop" Georgia, Azerbaijan, Estonia, Latvia, Finland?
Fractures within Russia is more likely particularly those with larger Muslim populations though still a low probability.
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/china-seeks-r...
Kremlin Silent on Chinese Map Claiming Part of Russia's Territory
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-china-kremlin-terr...
Adam. said:
GT03ROB said:
Excluding ISIS or whichever muslim group is flavour of the month they really aren't. You may wish that to be so, but its not about to happen. The central Asian states bordering Russia, Kazakhstan & mongolia are not about to start biting off bits of russian land. China doesn't need to, it just has more & more ethnic Chinese populating eastern Russia. They play the long game
Who else is going to "take a pop" Georgia, Azerbaijan, Estonia, Latvia, Finland?
Fractures within Russia is more likely particularly those with larger Muslim populations though still a low probability.
Spot on, lots of wishful thinking on hereWho else is going to "take a pop" Georgia, Azerbaijan, Estonia, Latvia, Finland?
Fractures within Russia is more likely particularly those with larger Muslim populations though still a low probability.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/prisoners-tak...
Richard-G said:
Adam. said:
GT03ROB said:
Excluding ISIS or whichever muslim group is flavour of the month they really aren't. You may wish that to be so, but its not about to happen. The central Asian states bordering Russia, Kazakhstan & mongolia are not about to start biting off bits of russian land. China doesn't need to, it just has more & more ethnic Chinese populating eastern Russia. They play the long game
Who else is going to "take a pop" Georgia, Azerbaijan, Estonia, Latvia, Finland?
Fractures within Russia is more likely particularly those with larger Muslim populations though still a low probability.
Spot on, lots of wishful thinking on hereWho else is going to "take a pop" Georgia, Azerbaijan, Estonia, Latvia, Finland?
Fractures within Russia is more likely particularly those with larger Muslim populations though still a low probability.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/prisoners-tak...
Richard-G said:
maybe expand your reading lads? this was 3 days ago, ive also seen the pics and vids...
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/prisoners-tak...
A few ISIS prisoners up for a scrap, got shot deadhttps://www.reuters.com/world/europe/prisoners-tak...
I am sure Moscow has been abandoned
Adam. said:
Richard-G said:
maybe expand your reading lads? this was 3 days ago, ive also seen the pics and vids...
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/prisoners-tak...
A few ISIS prisoners up for a scrap, got shot deadhttps://www.reuters.com/world/europe/prisoners-tak...
I am sure Moscow has been abandoned
sorry have you been asleep or something?
GT03ROB said:
Richard-G said:
Adam. said:
GT03ROB said:
Excluding ISIS or whichever muslim group is flavour of the month they really aren't. You may wish that to be so, but its not about to happen. The central Asian states bordering Russia, Kazakhstan & mongolia are not about to start biting off bits of russian land. China doesn't need to, it just has more & more ethnic Chinese populating eastern Russia. They play the long game
Who else is going to "take a pop" Georgia, Azerbaijan, Estonia, Latvia, Finland?
Fractures within Russia is more likely particularly those with larger Muslim populations though still a low probability.
Spot on, lots of wishful thinking on hereWho else is going to "take a pop" Georgia, Azerbaijan, Estonia, Latvia, Finland?
Fractures within Russia is more likely particularly those with larger Muslim populations though still a low probability.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/prisoners-tak...
a lot of these russian 'stans dont need the infectious spread of islamisim again as it never ends well in russia.
The weaker the bear the faster it spreads.
https://apnews.com/article/north-korea-russia-kim-...
If S Korea changes it policy it could help Ukraine. They do have quite a bit of equipment they could give, it would need a change in it's foreign policy.
If S Korea changes it policy it could help Ukraine. They do have quite a bit of equipment they could give, it would need a change in it's foreign policy.
borcy said:
https://apnews.com/article/north-korea-russia-kim-...
If S Korea changes it policy it could help Ukraine. They do have quite a bit of equipment they could give, it would need a change in it's foreign policy.
I think the key word in that article is “directly”…can’t remember when/where but I am fairly sure it was reported that South Korean 155mm shells had gone to Ukraine via a third party. Clearly would be very good if they were happy to supply arms directly. If S Korea changes it policy it could help Ukraine. They do have quite a bit of equipment they could give, it would need a change in it's foreign policy.
Cheib said:
borcy said:
https://apnews.com/article/north-korea-russia-kim-...
If S Korea changes it policy it could help Ukraine. They do have quite a bit of equipment they could give, it would need a change in it's foreign policy.
I think the key word in that article is “directly”…can’t remember when/where but I am fairly sure it was reported that South Korean 155mm shells had gone to Ukraine via a third party. Clearly would be very good if they were happy to supply arms directly. If S Korea changes it policy it could help Ukraine. They do have quite a bit of equipment they could give, it would need a change in it's foreign policy.
borcy said:
https://apnews.com/article/north-korea-russia-kim-...
If S Korea changes it policy it could help Ukraine. They do have quite a bit of equipment they could give, it would need a change in it's foreign policy.
The issue from the article could be to what extent North Korea would be prepared to send troops to Ukraine. There are things Putin could offer to entice them for certain. Kim cares less about his people than Putin does his, so trading North Korean bodies (which are worthless to Kim) for say nuclear tech may be a win win. If S Korea changes it policy it could help Ukraine. They do have quite a bit of equipment they could give, it would need a change in it's foreign policy.
borcy said:
Very cleverWould be good if it could then retreat to a safe distance and detonate it.
Financial Times saying that the US is set to halt all open orders for Patriot air defence systems & interceptor missiles until Ukraine has enough to defend itself from Russia’s air attacks.
https://www.ft.com/content/89fe9d6b-3a0f-42a5-af50...
https://www.ft.com/content/89fe9d6b-3a0f-42a5-af50...
Byker28i said:
Financial Times saying that the US is set to halt all open orders for Patriot air defence systems & interceptor missiles until Ukraine has enough to defend itself from Russia’s air attacks.
https://www.ft.com/content/89fe9d6b-3a0f-42a5-af50...
Paywalled...https://www.ft.com/content/89fe9d6b-3a0f-42a5-af50...
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