Climate change - the POLITICAL debate (Vol 7)

[turbobloke]

What Durbster said isn't what I said, and what I said is accurate. D moved the goalposts to aim a cheap shot which missed by a mile anyway, then spoke of dishonesty, tres drole, it's all getting a bit Desperate Danster.

A comparison of global mean temperature as of today's methodology with the Roman Warm Period equivalent would be pointless as there couldn't be an equivalent. In the RWP there was no global network of expanding airports, with their urban heat islands of concrete, tarmac and jetwash, to use in cooking up an average and so inflate the result. Nor were there ships with engines to allow use (abuse) of ship engine intake temperatures to inflate the Sea Surface Temperature across 70% of the planet's surface.

Remember, the climate crisis is a (noble) lie. According to data the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide from 300 ppmv to 400 ppmv hasn't discernibly altered the greenhouse effect which remains dominated by water vapour (Koutsoyiannis and Vournas 2023) and on top of that, dominated by natural variation (Ollila 2023) meanung no climate crisis and no need for rapid CO2 reduction programmes (also Ollila 2023).

Nevertheless there's no need for those terrified by the reality of no-climate-crisis...actually good news, surely...as the prevailing political climate is so deeply entrenched in climate voodoo it'll take years for reality to regain control of policy,

[durbster]

turbobloke said:

What Durbster said isn't what I said, and what I said is accurate. D moved the goalposts to aim a cheap shot which missed by a mile anyway, then spoke of dishonesty, tres drole, it's all getting a bit Desperate Danster.

durbster said:

turbobloke said:

If tech had been available a couple of thousand years ago, there would have been - within the influence of different population numbers - an even bigger increase in urban aircon use through the Roman Warm Period as, towards the end of it, temperatures were significantly hotter than now and with much lower carbon dioxide levels (see e.g. Jiang et al 2002, Luterbacher et al 2016 and Margaritelli et al 2020 as featured in this and other threads once or twice).

Dishonest as ever. None of these papers say the global temperature was significantly hotter than now.

It's obvious that you were trying to dishonestly represent by citing papers about sea surface temperatures in one region in response to a discussion about about the use of urban aircon.

The dishonesty and desperation is all yours and your cautious wordplay isn't a defence. You've got nothing left. We know all your tricks now.

Edited by durbster on Wednesday 12th June 10:47

[turbobloke]

DT climate politics x2

June temperatures at half the level of this time last year
Mystic Met: nothing to see here, move on.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/11/june-t...

Starmer risks losing support for fighting climate change
Labour’s plan for ‘cheap renewables’ means more pain for squeezed households
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/06/09/st...

[Diderot]

durbster said:

turbobloke said:

What Durbster said isn't what I said, and what I said is accurate. D moved the goalposts to aim a cheap shot which missed by a mile anyway, then spoke of dishonesty, tres drole, it's all getting a bit Desperate Danster.

durbster said:

turbobloke said:

If tech had been available a couple of thousand years ago, there would have been - within the influence of different population numbers - an even bigger increase in urban aircon use through the Roman Warm Period as, towards the end of it, temperatures were significantly hotter than now and with much lower carbon dioxide levels (see e.g. Jiang et al 2002, Luterbacher et al 2016 and Margaritelli et al 2020 as featured in this and other threads once or twice).

Dishonest as ever. None of these papers say the global temperature was significantly hotter than now.

It's obvious that you were trying to dishonestly represent by citing papers about sea surface temperatures in one region in response to a discussion about about the use of urban aircon.

The dishonesty and desperation is all yours and your cautious wordplay isn't a defence. You've got nothing left. We know all your tricks now.

Edited by durbster on Wednesday 12th June 10:47

So Durbster, was the RWP warmer than today? What is your expert assessment?

[Randy Winkman]

turbobloke said:

DT climate politics x2

June temperatures at half the level of this time last year
Mystic Met: nothing to see here, move on.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/11/june-t...

Starmer risks losing support for fighting climate change
Labour’s plan for ‘cheap renewables’ means more pain for squeezed households
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/06/09/st...

And if it's in the DT and climate related, it will be "political" wont it? Like everything in the DT. Anyway, low temperatures in June? Do you think 2024 is more likely to be a record cold year or a record hot year?

[turbobloke]

The "ridiculous" Labour Net Zero plans are pure zealotry, watch out for blackouts. Who could think that way?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/09/la...

[Diderot]

Randy Winkman said:

turbobloke said:

DT climate politics x2

June temperatures at half the level of this time last year
Mystic Met: nothing to see here, move on.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/11/june-t...

Starmer risks losing support for fighting climate change
Labour’s plan for ‘cheap renewables’ means more pain for squeezed households
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/06/09/st...

And if it's in the DT and climate related, it will be "political" wont it? Like everything in the DT. Anyway, low temperatures in June? Do you think 2024 is more likely to be a record cold year or a record hot year?

I suppose you favour The Guardian’s neutral coverage of the ‘global heating emergency/crisis/catastrophe’?

[turbobloke]

Randy Winkman said:

turbobloke said:

DT climate politics x2

June temperatures at half the level of this time last year
Mystic Met: nothing to see here, move on.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/11/june-t...

Starmer risks losing support for fighting climate change
Labour’s plan for ‘cheap renewables’ means more pain for squeezed households
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/06/09/st...

And if it's in the DT and climate related, it will be "political" wont it? Like everything in the DT. Anyway, low temperatures in June? Do you think 2024 is more likely to be a record cold year or a record hot year?

Being political it's relevant to this thread. As to your fallacy - shooting the messenger ad hom - that's expected.

The GMB Union is onside with the DT regarding Starmer's flawed and futile plan, curious company to keep. Either way the numbers (data) matter, and neither Labour nor the Conservatives have a clue about what they plan to do.

[g4ry13]

Well.....it's the second week of June and a toasty 16 degrees in the UK.

Where has all this talk of climate change / emergency gone?!? Or do we only hear about it when the weather gets a bit cold (ie. Winter) or people feel a bit too warm (over 30 degrees)?

[kerplunk]

Diderot said:

durbster said:

turbobloke said:

What Durbster said isn't what I said, and what I said is accurate. D moved the goalposts to aim a cheap shot which missed by a mile anyway, then spoke of dishonesty, tres drole, it's all getting a bit Desperate Danster.

durbster said:

turbobloke said:

If tech had been available a couple of thousand years ago, there would have been - within the influence of different population numbers - an even bigger increase in urban aircon use through the Roman Warm Period as, towards the end of it, temperatures were significantly hotter than now and with much lower carbon dioxide levels (see e.g. Jiang et al 2002, Luterbacher et al 2016 and Margaritelli et al 2020 as featured in this and other threads once or twice).

Dishonest as ever. None of these papers say the global temperature was significantly hotter than now.

It's obvious that you were trying to dishonestly represent by citing papers about sea surface temperatures in one region in response to a discussion about about the use of urban aircon.

The dishonesty and desperation is all yours and your cautious wordplay isn't a defence. You've got nothing left. We know all your tricks now.

Edited by durbster on Wednesday 12th June 10:47

So Durbster, was the RWP warmer than today? What is your expert assessment?

A good time saver is to simply say the opposite of what turbobloke says was the case and cite the same refs.

It's warmer now than RWP - see Luterbacher et al 2016

[turbobloke]

Now the Germans are asking where summer is (in Europe) and they're almost celebrating that one location briefly hit 28 - heresy - though even down under they enjoyed the coldest April in a decade. With warming, one year is terrible, so ten must be atrocious.

https://www.dwd.de/DE/wetter/thema_des_tages/2024/...

The sixth stage of the Tour de Suisse has had to be shortened because heavy snowfall made the Nufenen Pass impossible to cross, and an alternative route was sought. Global boiling, on yer bike,

Edited by turbobloke on Thursday 13th June 17:20

[turbobloke]

Heller has published a vid on the climate optimum 5000 years ago. There's some bonus comedy on comedy agw predictions falling flat. Catch Obama doing a Gordon Brown, man oh Mann.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ktLIUVEaaQ0

[kerplunk]

turbobloke said:

Now the Germans are asking where summer is (in Europe) and they're almost celebrating that one location briefly hit 28 - heresy - though even down under they enjoyed the coldest April in a decade. With warming, one year is terrible, so ten must be atrocious.

https://le.utah.gov/publicweb/BRISCJK/PublicWeb/43...

The sixth stage of the Tour de Suisse has had to be shortened because heavy snowfall made the Nufenen Pass impossible to cross, and an alternative route was sought. Global boiling, on yer bike,

Well done turbobloke - *they* are clearly gaslighting us

[mko9]

turbobloke said:

Now the Germans are asking where summer is (in Europe) and they're almost celebrating that one location briefly hit 28 - heresy - though even down under they enjoyed the coldest April in a decade. With warming, one year is terrible, so ten must be atrocious.

https://le.utah.gov/publicweb/BRISCJK/PublicWeb/43...

The sixth stage of the Tour de Suisse has had to be shortened because heavy snowfall made the Nufenen Pass impossible to cross, and an alternative route was sought. Global boiling, on yer bike,

It is almost the middle of June and the overnight low in my corner of Germany was supposed to be 4C the night before last. I thought about whether I needed to bring plants inside in case there was frost.

[turbobloke]

I'll edit my original post to give the German weather url.

Prof Pielke's THB has been banned at Facebook, which is odd as he's strong on decarbonisation

Prof P said:

This week, we learned that THB is banned at Facebook, revealing once again why Substack stands head and shoulders above other platforms. When news of the THB Facebook ban spread, THB saw a remarkable increase in subscribers

[wc98]

kerplunk said:

Have a read up on the urban heat island effect. UHI is stongest in sunny calm dry weather or when the surrounding countryside is covered in snow - haven't had much of that lately. As I said earlier it's difficult to imagine what station siting issues could've kicked in to produce such anomalously warm mean minimum temps in May across the UK.

I looked at a local rural weather station in the east midlands (Sutton Bonnington). Mean max/min temps in May were higher than the England result - 18.7/10.0 vs 17.8/9.3

It might well be strongest in that scenario but i have seen the temp rise on the car display by up to 3c in the winter upon entering a city often enough to know it's a thing everywhere.

I saw temps down to 3c in the car the last two nights and given the wind direction i doubt the region i was driving was the coldest. I think the record low in Scotland is 2c so every chance that was equalled somewhere. Yes it's only weather but i am having great trouble working out how the instantaneous effect of the anthropogenic component of co2 apparently works on an intermittent basis, if it's as well mixed a gas as is stated in the literature.

[wc98]

donkmeister said:

You see this here is the problem, this bit in bold. This insidious use of the term "narrative" as a euphemism for "thing I wish weren't true but cannot refute". In the last 5 years I don't think I've heard "narrative" used to refer to an actual narrative. I've heard it used to talk about how COVID is somehow a ploy to turn us all into Muslims, I've heard it used to talk about how libraries are trying to turn our kids gay, I've heard it used to talk about how the many governments of the world are stopping us from venturing into Antarctica because it would prove god(s).

Climate change is not a "narrative". Climate change is a theory (in the scientific "explains both past observations and predicts future observations" meaning, not the "I have a hunch" vernacular), backed up by observation and demonstration.

The political debate surrounding climate change isn't "well I don't believe in climate change, la la la I can't hear you!", in the broadest sense the political debate is "ok, so climate change is a thing, what should we do about it and who should pay for that?".

If your view is "I fear change and want to carry on doing what I did in 1960-whatever, so we should just carry on and sod it" then that is a perfectly valid political stance. However you then have the follow-up questions about whether we should do anything for people on islands flooded by rising sea levels, should we give out free air conditioners to the elderly to cope with 40 degree summers, is that paid for by all the money saved by returning to leaded petrol, that sort of thing.

That's a fair point, it's just a pity some bods at the Met office are actually pushing a narrative. There is no climate crisis. There is climate variability and we are in an age where there is an anthropogenic element to that change but how much or even if it is significant enough to do anything about, no one has any idea.

Where are these disappearing islands ? Last time i looked at that one it turned out nature was doing what nature does and building the level of the islands up at a commensurate rate with the tiny level of sea rise, to be expected given how they were formed initially. A low/high pressure system in the right place will change local sea levels by an order of magnitude greater than any rise in sea level over the last 20 years and they seem to be coping with that ok. Question every single thing you are told regarding climate change from both sides of the debate, even if you don't want to believe it there is a narrative being pushed.

"Sea-level rise and climatic change threaten the existence of atoll nations. Inundation and erosion are expected to render islands uninhabitable over the next century, forcing human migration. Here we present analysis of shoreline change in all 101 islands in the Pacific atoll nation of Tuvalu. Using remotely sensed data, change is analysed over the past four decades, a period when local sea level has risen at twice the global average (~3.90?±?0.4?mm.yr?1). Results highlight a net increase in land area in Tuvalu of 73.5?ha (2.9%), despite sea-level rise, and land area increase in eight of nine atolls. Island change has lacked uniformity with 74% increasing and 27% decreasing in size. Results challenge perceptions of island loss, showing islands are dynamic features that will persist as sites for habitation over the next century, presenting alternate opportunities for adaptation that embrace the heterogeneity of island types and their dynamics."
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-02954-1

My youngest is on holiday at the moment, her and her boyfriend have actually paid a reasonable sum of money to go somewhere where the temp is hitting 40c ,i must phone her and ask her to come home before something terrible happens

Edited by wc98 on Thursday 13th June 21:28

[Diderot]

We have had our log burner on tonight on the South Coast. So much for flaming June; we are burning logs. Turned our kitchen/family room extension underfloor heating on too. I’m looking forward to KP gleefully proving that June was the hottest evah. Bring it on. Heat would be good.

[deeps]

wc98 said:

Yes it's only weather but i am having great trouble working out how the instantaneous effect of the anthropogenic component of co2 apparently works on an intermittent basis, if it's as well mixed a gas as is stated in the literature.

It's not an instantaneous effect, it's taken over 100 years to build up to this level of... everyone shivering in mid June :P

[deeps]

Diderot said:

We have had our log burner on tonight on the South Coast. So much for flaming June; we are burning logs. Turned our kitchen/family room extension underfloor heating on too. I’m looking forward to KP gleefully proving that June was the hottest evah. Bring it on. Heat would be good.

I'm in Somerset, was using just an electric fan heater in the lounge to take the chill off the air during May, yes the hottest May ever, but now mid June I've turned the central heating back on.

Was at a funeral yesterday afternoon, everyone was shivering in their coats, 12.5c, the topic of conversation turned to
climate and that no one could remember such a cold June. Strangely many of us could remember July 2022 and the non stop news reports of the climate emergency and JSO representatives declaring that we are all about to boil to death in our own sweat.

Nowadays, everyone I talk to takes the piss out of the 'climate emergency', literally I don't speak to anyone that buys into this embarrassment and bdisation of science. The political and media hype must surely run out of steam soon?