Russia Invades Ukraine. Volume 5

[Hereward]

Digga said:

...I have watched in awe the size and enthusiasm of concerts in Moscow. Metallica's in 1991 was utterly epic in scale and reception from the fans...

Ha, of one my absolute all-time faves too.

Imagine being there:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_W7wqQwa-TU

[pingu393]

Digga said:

sisu said:

There is no 1990s rock concert or Techno party in Berlin waiting for Russians after this...

That re-triggered something I'd pondered a few times since the start of the invasion.

I have watched in awe the size and enthusiasm of concerts in Moscow. Metallica's in 1991 was utterly epic in scale and reception from the fans. This concert, part of the "Monsters of Rock" festival, this concert happened a few months before. the official dissolution of the Soviet Union. Moscow to an exceptional crowd of 1.6 million people. Slightly smaller, but equally well-received were the Prodigy, a few years later.

I cannot square the Russian public's love for Western music, not to mention fashion, cars etc. etc. with the low-level, anti-Western drip of their state propaganda.

Those 20 year olds are now 50 year olds.

50 year olds should have access to the levers of power.

[AlexIT]

pingu393 said:

Digga said:

sisu said:

There is no 1990s rock concert or Techno party in Berlin waiting for Russians after this...

That re-triggered something I'd pondered a few times since the start of the invasion.

I have watched in awe the size and enthusiasm of concerts in Moscow. Metallica's in 1991 was utterly epic in scale and reception from the fans. This concert, part of the "Monsters of Rock" festival, this concert happened a few months before. the official dissolution of the Soviet Union. Moscow to an exceptional crowd of 1.6 million people. Slightly smaller, but equally well-received were the Prodigy, a few years later.

I cannot square the Russian public's love for Western music, not to mention fashion, cars etc. etc. with the low-level, anti-Western drip of their state propaganda.

Those 20 year olds are now 50 year olds.

50 year olds should have access to the levers of power.

Or are among those who have left the country...

[BikeBikeBIke]

pingu393 said:

Those 20 year olds are now 50 year olds.

50 year olds should have access to the levers of power.

Yes. But when they get them they'll see the books. And when they see the books they'll put Putin in prison. And when Putin's in prison someone is gonna roger him to death.


So Putin and a handful of 70yos are not gonna quit until they can't physically carry on.

[Digga]

AlexIT said:

pingu393 said:

Digga said:

sisu said:

There is no 1990s rock concert or Techno party in Berlin waiting for Russians after this...

That re-triggered something I'd pondered a few times since the start of the invasion.

I have watched in awe the size and enthusiasm of concerts in Moscow. Metallica's in 1991 was utterly epic in scale and reception from the fans. This concert, part of the "Monsters of Rock" festival, this concert happened a few months before. the official dissolution of the Soviet Union. Moscow to an exceptional crowd of 1.6 million people. Slightly smaller, but equally well-received were the Prodigy, a few years later.

I cannot square the Russian public's love for Western music, not to mention fashion, cars etc. etc. with the low-level, anti-Western drip of their state propaganda.

Those 20 year olds are now 50 year olds.

50 year olds should have access to the levers of power.

Or are among those who have left the country...

TBF, it was a heavy metal concert, so even on Western metrics, about a quarter would be dead of motorcycle crashes or alcoholism. Double that for Russia,

[Wadeski]

The brain drain from Russia has been extraordinary - basically, if you were smart enough to work for a global company, you got out.

[AlexIT]

Digga said:

AlexIT said:

Or are among those who have left the country...

TBF, it was a heavy metal concert, so even on Western metrics, about a quarter would be dead of motorcycle crashes or alcoholism. Double that for Russia,

You mean on the way back home, I suppose.

[AstonZagato]

Wadeski said:

The brain drain from Russia has been extraordinary - basically, if you were smart enough to work for a global company, you got out.

I operate as advisor to mainly tech companies. The number of Russian founders that I see who have moved to Dubai/Cyprus/Spain/UK/Lux etc is ridiculous. Some have even disenfranchised their Russian shareholders to make themselves more palatable to western investors.

[ecsrobin]

[Waitforme]

RichFN2 said:

Russia has a far bigger population, and has a much higher number of foreign mercenaries fighting for them. In that regard Russia has a much bigger advantage, the main problem for Russia is the staggering losses they are suffering. It's been 1000+ everyday for quite some time. That's just soldiers, and sometimes the ratio is 10-15 Russian casualties for every 1 Ukraine suffers.

The equipment loss is just as staggering.


With regards to Ukraine not beating Russia without help from NATO/the west then yes I completely agree. If the help was to suddenly stop then Russia would have the advantage within a few months, and within a few more months would start capturing vast amounts of Ukraine.

Ukraines best chance is to bleed Russia of all it's resources, they have less than 2 years until they run out of tanks and in that time their economy will be looking rather gloomy and inflation will be higher.when all the foreign mercenaries have dried up and all those killed on the frontline are Russian citizens the population will be far less tolerant of this war. High inflation and a weak economy will only add to the pressure.

ecsrobin said:

There are some minor differences in tank loses being quoted, top post mentions circa 8k while the latest vid above mentions about 2.5k

[CT05 Nose Cone]

Waitforme said:

There are some minor differences in tank loses being quoted, top post mentions circa 8k while the latest vid above mentions about 2.5k

Even 2.5k is a staggering amount, I wonder how many America and all the western powers have lost in combat since 1945?

[RichFN2]

Waitforme said:

RichFN2 said:

Russia has a far bigger population, and has a much higher number of foreign mercenaries fighting for them. In that regard Russia has a much bigger advantage, the main problem for Russia is the staggering losses they are suffering. It's been 1000+ everyday for quite some time. That's just soldiers, and sometimes the ratio is 10-15 Russian casualties for every 1 Ukraine suffers.

The equipment loss is just as staggering.


With regards to Ukraine not beating Russia without help from NATO/the west then yes I completely agree. If the help was to suddenly stop then Russia would have the advantage within a few months, and within a few more months would start capturing vast amounts of Ukraine.

Ukraines best chance is to bleed Russia of all it's resources, they have less than 2 years until they run out of tanks and in that time their economy will be looking rather gloomy and inflation will be higher.when all the foreign mercenaries have dried up and all those killed on the frontline are Russian citizens the population will be far less tolerant of this war. High inflation and a weak economy will only add to the pressure.

ecsrobin said:

There are some minor differences in tank loses being quoted, top post mentions circa 8k while the latest vid above mentions about 2.5k

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

And Oryx have counted 3139 with the following statement:

This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here. Loitering munitions, drones used as unmanned bait, civilian vehicles and derelict equipment are not included in this list.

The reality is probably somewhere in the middle, with Oryx figures being a minimum and the numbers published by Ukraines ministry of defence being exaggerated.

And this is what another analyst has "worked out" for yesterday's losses:

[jtremlett]

You know the Russians have lost a staggering amount because you see the pictures of the antique stuff they've dredged into action and also that they can only muster a T34 for their Moscow parades. I have read that the numbers Ukraine publish for Russian losses are not so far from what US and UK intelligence believe. Obviously, it is in their interest to exaggerate but not by so much that no-one believes what they say. At least the ships are relatively easy to verify.

I also read that you would normally expect 3 wounded for every 1 killed but that the Russian meat-grinder tactics together with poor care for their wounded may well be skewing that to a greater percentage killed. Although, as stated above, it isn't clear how many of those fighting for Russia are actually Russian.

[glazbagun]

How big is the global pool of combat mercs? Given the money the West has to throw around, it strikes me as notable that Wagner was getting all the press and we haven't heard of Blackwater since Iraq.

[CT05 Nose Cone]

glazbagun said:

How big is the global pool of combat mercs? Given the money the West has to throw around, it strikes me as notable that Wagner was getting all the press and we haven't heard of Blackwater since Iraq.

Blackwater rebranded in 2010 and have been defunct for a decade now

[Chimune]

Putin and Kim in same location. Just imagine how many lives would be saved....

[vaud]

Chimune said:

Putin and Kim in same location. Just imagine how many lives would be saved....

But it is never as simple as that, as who replaces them? Rarely some moderate centrist, more likely some one seeking revenge...

[glazbagun]

CT05 Nose Cone said:

glazbagun said:

How big is the global pool of combat mercs? Given the money the West has to throw around, it strikes me as notable that Wagner was getting all the press and we haven't heard of Blackwater since Iraq.

Blackwater rebranded in 2010 and have been defunct for a decade now

So where did they go? I'd imagine it's unlikely they retired and lived happily ever after.

Did the contracts die when Obama took over or did the pool of Afghan veterans dry up?

It only came to my attention afyer some Indian Mercs died fighting for Russia, which highlights it as a costly alternative to conscription if you are happy to pay for a forever war.

[rossub]

Chimune said:

Putin and Kim in same location. Just imagine how many lives would be saved....

I thought that, but would surely be impossible without being an insider job.

You would think anything in the air would be picked up with enough warning for them to escape.

[hidetheelephants]

glazbagun said:

CT05 Nose Cone said:

glazbagun said:

How big is the global pool of combat mercs? Given the money the West has to throw around, it strikes me as notable that Wagner was getting all the press and we haven't heard of Blackwater since Iraq.

Blackwater rebranded in 2010 and have been defunct for a decade now

So where did they go? I'd imagine it's unlikely they retired and lived happily ever after.

Did the contracts die when Obama took over or did the pool of Afghan veterans dry up?

It only came to my attention afyer some Indian Mercs died fighting for Russia, which highlights it as a costly alternative to conscription if you are happy to pay for a forever war.

I doubt the average Blackwater alumni has signed up for Wagner, more likely gone into private security which is where most of these types tend to subsist when govts aren't hosing them down with money.