Elon Musk $41B offer for Twitter

[anonymous-user]

Baroque attacks said:

Careful now, comparing revenue with profit between competitors.

If you knew what you were talking about, you would realise with Tesla's estimated gross margin on the Cybertruck, revenue is mostly what counts. Whereas with Ford's EV figures (revenue, net margin, gross margin etc) their EV figures are a bin fire.

[off_again]

rscott said:

Not much of a premium on used CT - https://carsandbids.com/search/tesla/cybertruck?cs...

Cyberbeast Foundation edition is approx $120k new and only selling for $135k . Of course, that comes with FSD as standard. Well, sort of - it comes with a promise that FSD will arrive at some point in the future at some unspecified date..

Wonder when they'll manage to produce wheel covers which don't destroy the tyres ?

It’s actually worse than that. Just checked on Autotempest and there are well over 200 for sale and prices start at just over $100k for a few thousand miles example. When you factor in that most of these are for sale through dealers, the auction prices are below this. Cars and Bids have some records of sales and dual motor foundation editions are getting sold for $105k-$110k, so just over their list price of $100k (excluding big tires that they might have paid extra for). It’s been mentioned several times that wholesale auction prices are well under $100k now.

Dealers can typically sit on a car for a while and have it up at a higher price, but they arent selling so it’s only a matter of time before they come down. Impressive as it is that it is still in demand even after 11,000+ sales, but the days of them going for $120k retail are gone.

Lots of reports of people just walking into a Tesla sales location and changing their order to match something in stock and then getting a VIN within 20 mins (i.e. the system matches it for them and gets them one). So why would you pay over at a dealer when you can walk up and make a few clicks and get a brand new one?

Also, we have to factor in what is happening. Foundation series options are ending in the next quarter and there are deliveries of the normal ones happening now. $20k for FSD and a bunch of non-existent options doesnt make sense, so I can see buyers just waiting for the cheaper model. Then there is the availability of the mass market one - the RWD model. I can see a lot of prospective buyers just waiting, skipping the Foundation series and getting the RWD one next year. Lots of factors and if you over paid for a Cybertruck, I am sorry.

[durbster]

thatsprettyshady said:

This is the same thing that was played when Linus Tech Tips was hacked, always the same thing. Hijack a million+ sub channel and scam away with the Musk AI.

Ah yes, I was trying to remember the other high profile account this happened to recently.

Given with this one the channel belonged to a major Australian news network so you'd think they'd have reported it pretty sharpish but the streams were up for five hours, had a peak of 45,000 views and made it into the YouTube Live recommendations. That's an extraordinarily poor response from YouTube.

Ugh, the continuing ensttification of the internet.

[h0b0]

Logged in to X today and was asked to consent to giving tips to X accounts. How odd.

[Durzel]

h0b0 said:

Logged in to X today and was asked to consent to giving tips to X accounts. How odd.

OnlyXans - coming "soon" to X, the Everything App.

[KaraK]

Durzel said:

h0b0 said:

Logged in to X today and was asked to consent to giving tips to X accounts. How odd.

OnlyXans - coming "soon" to X, the Everything App.

While enabling the lonely basement dwellers of the world to further parasocial relationships for the purposes of profit may not be the most respectable of businesses I would actually say it would be perhaps the first commercially sound move twitter has made since Elno took over - the onlyfans crowd are already using twitter to attract customers so it's not as though that would see an increase in the levels of pron on the platform, but at least twitter would be getting paid some.

[Durzel]

KaraK said:

Durzel said:

h0b0 said:

Logged in to X today and was asked to consent to giving tips to X accounts. How odd.

OnlyXans - coming "soon" to X, the Everything App.

While enabling the lonely basement dwellers of the world to further parasocial relationships for the purposes of profit may not be the most respectable of businesses I would actually say it would be perhaps the first commercially sound move twitter has made since Elno took over - the onlyfans crowd are already using twitter to attract customers so it's not as though that would see an increase in the levels of pron on the platform, but at least twitter would be getting paid some.

Yup, I agree.

He's already scared off the advertisers worth a damn, so might as well double down.

Problem is, knowing Elon, he'd find a way to make it look, feel or work terribly, or all three.

Edited by Durzel on Wednesday 3rd July 16:29

[h0b0]

I did not know about X tipping until it said I had to consent. I did not consent but the message has gone now so I assume they take my use of the App on another device as consent even thought there was not an option to say I do not consent.

X said:

What is Tips?
Tips is a feature that lets you add links to select third-party payment services to your X profile. When you turn on Tips on your profile, people can support you by tapping on your Tips icon to send you money or Bitcoin off-platform via the third-party payment services and platforms you have added.

Why is X introducing Tips?
People on X already share their Venmo handle and $Cashtag in posts. And people are often informed, entertained, and even moved by conversations taking place on the Home timeline and in X Spaces. With Tips, we're creating an easy way to direct people to links to your payment profiles and we’re making it easier to support the people driving the conversation on X – whether you want to support a content creator, help someone fundraise, tip someone who just needs some help or thank someone for making you laugh.

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Once you have agreed to our General Tipping policy, you will be brought to the Tips settings screen. Toggle Allow tips to on and then choose the third-party service(s) you’d like to use. Add in your third-party service username(s). You will need to have at least one username entered for your Tips icon to appear on your X profile.

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[off_again]

durbster said:

Yeah if you can't get into the real account then spoofing another verified account is a good alternative (except on Twitter, obv )

Musk went big on crypto bks a few years ago (remember when you could buy a Tesla with Bitcoin? ) so he's the ideal target for this kind of deepfake scam. No doubt there's a few thousand dollars heading to these tts already.

Yeah, there are a ton of scams focused around Tesla and Musk, and to be honest, no one seems to be doing anything about them!

Tesla and Musk are going to be the focus of these types of things - heavy in social media? Tick. Had involvement with crypto in the past? Tick. Surrounded by hype channels and 'influencers' who peddle these types of things? Tick. It goes on. It makes them extremely attractive targets. I find it extremely disappointing that a lot of the social media platforms are not seen doing anything about it. Very disappointing to be honest.

Tesla solar is another one that gets targeted with the incentives that are available here. You could potentially get Tesla solar via a third party, but I think they closed that loophole a while ago. Basically its direct sales only with contractors to install. Yet there are a ton of ads for 'free Tesla solar'.... utter scams. YouTube is littered with them. Seriously, it cant be hard to filter these things out and stop people getting scammed all the time.

Bloody ridiculous to be honest.

[anonymous-user]

EddieSteadyGo said:

Durzel said:

...

Also set myself a reminder to sell my Tesla shares before the vote. Feel like the stock does not have a good outlook regardless of the outcome. If the vote passes it's going to be tied up in legal action for the way the BoD has behaved, what they've said and not said, and if it doesn't pass Musk will throw his toys out of the pram. Either way I don't see an upside for it.

Personally, I would advise against selling before the vote. Most of the 'bad news' is already largely priced in (likely bad Q2 numbers, uncertainty on Musk's comp package, lack of clarity on Model 2 etc). I think there is a lot of pent up energy waiting for any good news to give those a reason who are currently on the sidelines to jump back in, which will cause a jump in the price.

In my view, we could easily see a surge in price taking it over $200/share between now and the end of the year. It just needs some progress on FSD, or Robotaxi to not look like vapourware, or better sales following reductions in interest rates etc.

Just revisiting this post from early June. Now we are in early July, and with only a small amount of good news, Tesla's share price has now surged to over $240....

[gregs656]

EddieSteadyGo said:

Just revisiting this post from early June. Now we are in early July, and with only a small amount of good news, Tesla's share price has now surged to over $240....

I wouldn’t be surprised if by the end of the year it had fallen and risen twice over, cratered or reached an all time high.

[soupdragon1]

gregs656 said:

EddieSteadyGo said:

Just revisiting this post from early June. Now we are in early July, and with only a small amount of good news, Tesla's share price has now surged to over $240....

I wouldn’t be surprised if by the end of the year it had fallen and risen twice over, cratered or reached an all time high.

The price isn't reflective of performance, it's a bet at the casino.

The wild swings are great for relieving people of their cash, in both directions.

It's a very popular trade and these price movements are more related to shenanigans than company performance, which is on a downward trajectory.

Anything that moves so sharply without a significant reason is a big red flag.

[anonymous-user]

gregs656 said:

I wouldn’t be surprised if by the end of the year it had fallen and risen twice over, cratered or reached an all time high.

I don't disagree. But that volatility actually makes it an interesting proposition. I bought call options on 300 shares when the price was around $160 so that decision has turned into a healthy profit. When it drops again, and when I start seeing articles predicting the prices is next is going to crash even lower, like below $100/share, that's the time to do the same thing again. There is just such a high percentage of overly enthusiastic retail investors, when sentiment switches from negative to positive, the price responds to almost any good news.

[durbster]

EddieSteadyGo said:

gregs656 said:

I wouldn’t be surprised if by the end of the year it had fallen and risen twice over, cratered or reached an all time high.

I don't disagree. But that volatility actually makes it an interesting proposition. I bought call options on 300 shares when the price was around $160 so that decision has turned into a healthy profit. When it drops again, and when I start seeing articles predicting the prices is next is going to crash even lower, like below $100/share, that's the time to do the same thing again. There is just such a high percentage of overly enthusiastic retail investors, when sentiment switches from negative to positive, the price responds to almost any good news.

Unless it's just for a bit of gambling fun with money you're OK with losing, this is a terrible idea.

People who think they can time the market almost always end up losing their money. It's especially risky on a single stock, and even moreso with one like TSLA which seems to wobble around with seemingly no connection to reality.

[anonymous-user]

durbster said:

Unless it's just for a bit of gambling fun with money you're OK with losing, this is a terrible idea.

People who think they can time the market almost always end up losing their money. It's especially risky on a single stock, and even moreso with one like TSLA which seems to wobble around with seemingly no connection to reality.

I should clarify, I am specifically referring to buying long dated ATM call options. Not buying the actual shares. And buying after large declines and when negative sentiment is getting to a peak (i.e. when most people are buying puts).

[soupdragon1]

EddieSteadyGo said:

durbster said:

Unless it's just for a bit of gambling fun with money you're OK with losing, this is a terrible idea.

People who think they can time the market almost always end up losing their money. It's especially risky on a single stock, and even moreso with one like TSLA which seems to wobble around with seemingly no connection to reality.

I should clarify, I am specifically referring to buying long dated ATM call options. Not buying the actual shares. And buying after large declines and when negative sentiment is getting to a peak (i.e. when most people are buying puts).

You're still taking a seat at the casino table.

I'm not referring to you specifically in this next bit but its well known when gambling that when you win, its highly likely you continue to bet, and more likely, that you'll bet more.

Similar mentality with many people playing options on a stock like Tesla.

If you assume for a minute, robots and FSD become successful, that revenue is still a very long time away, multiple years minimum. In the here and now, company health is based on the cars. The share price can do whatever it wants, but it doesn't impact the balance sheet. At todays share price, that leaves a pretty enormous probability for large swings when you consider the market value of what Tesla are doing today vs todays share price, which is 10 x value on 'current' performance.

Looking at your strategy specifically, on which your entry point is based on share price rather than company health, it can't be described as anything other than risky. The guidance from Tesla for this year was increased sales YOY but we've seen 2 quarters of negative growth, despite additional price cuts/promotions. When share price and current run rate valuation are so detached, its a minefield. The concept of future revenues being immeasurably higher in say, 10 years from now, is what can justify such a lofty valuation today, but the absolute reality is that this is very far from being likely.

There is an argument to say that Tesla is just as likely to go bust, as it is to pull off robocabs and robots so when you take a position in such a company, its a huge leap of faith.

[anonymous-user]

soupdragon1 said:

You're still taking a seat at the casino table.

I'm not referring to you specifically in this next bit but its well known when gambling that when you win, its highly likely you continue to bet, and more likely, that you'll bet more.

Similar mentality with many people playing options on a stock like Tesla.

If you assume for a minute, robots and FSD become successful, that revenue is still a very long time away, multiple years minimum. In the here and now, company health is based on the cars. The share price can do whatever it wants, but it doesn't impact the balance sheet. At todays share price, that leaves a pretty enormous probability for large swings when you consider the market value of what Tesla are doing today vs todays share price, which is 10 x value on 'current' performance.

Looking at your strategy specifically, on which your entry point is based on share price rather than company health, it can't be described as anything other than risky. The guidance from Tesla for this year was increased sales YOY but we've seen 2 quarters of negative growth, despite additional price cuts/promotions. When share price and current run rate valuation are so detached, its a minefield. The concept of future revenues being immeasurably higher in say, 10 years from now, is what can justify such a lofty valuation today, but the absolute reality is that this is very far from being likely.

There is an argument to say that Tesla is just as likely to go bust, as it is to pull off robocabs and robots so when you take a position in such a company, its a huge leap of faith.

From my research buying LEAP call options tends to work out neutral overall in terms of net gain/loss, obviously ignoring commission costs of buying/selling the options. Tesla specifically is interesting though because of the high retail investor percentage, which tends to lead to a propensity for the price to (over)react to good news. It's why I thought the chance of it breaking $200 before the end of the year was highly likely. My approach would be to sell the call option back once a specific % profit target has been achieved. It also doesn't relate to the fundamentals of a company but more momentum and sentiment, which usually tends to push price too far one way of the other (in the short term).

What I've described though doesn't scale very well as there are too few opportunities where it can be applied. I certainly wouldn't be suggesting buying more call options in Tesla at the moment. And to be very honest, I rarely buy options in individual companies (usually only in indexes), and I'm mostly selling options, and not in Tesla!

[Byker28i]

Ah Musk again

[hidetheelephants]

If Johnson is for it it's probably a bag of st that fks poor people and minorities.

[off_again]

Byker28i said:

Ah Musk again

What an absolute ststain of a person. We are still doing this then? Christ on a bike, this is just stupid.

We have covered this at length before, but there is no issue with illegals voting. Never was and it’s not going to be again. Laws already exist and Johnson’s bill is just a laughable attempt to gain attention. And on the other spin, that the Dems are importing millions of illegals to vote in the next few cycles. Again, utter lies and just not true.

https://apnews.com/article/trump-immigrant-voting-...

Yet we still keep giving this man attention and praise. Why? No matter what ‘good’ this man has achieved is completely wiped out by stupidity like this. Now, does he believe it? Probably not. This will be an utterly cynical move to gain attention (and keep his narcissistic personality stroked) and to appeal to the far right. There is no way you can spin this that looks good for Musk. Just a ststain.