Elon Musk $41B offer for Twitter
Discussion
There's also this weirdness....
https://jalopnik.com/tesla-cybertruck-unexpectedly...
I know most cases of unintended acceleration tend to be spurious, but it's hard to argue against that video footage.
https://jalopnik.com/tesla-cybertruck-unexpectedly...
I know most cases of unintended acceleration tend to be spurious, but it's hard to argue against that video footage.
rscott said:
I see they've had to issue a recall for all 11,000 Cybertrucks sold so far - to replace the windscreen wiper motors.
Is that all? Just checked and its 11,688 from November 13th to June 6th production - ouch, thats not a lot!I know it takes time to ramp up production, but if this is the total production / sold, this is very worrying. Thats 7 months of production and if you take a linear line, equates to around 20,000 sales in a year. I fully expect it to increase once the cheaper models become available, but Wall Street is suggesting 30,000 to 40,000 in total sales.
Ford sold 7,743 Lightnings in Q1 which leads to around 30,000 total sales in 2024, and very close to the Cybertruck. Ouch, this is not good and no where near the expected volumes. We will have to see, but this doesnt look good.
off_again said:
Is that all? Just checked and its 11,688 from November 13th to June 6th production - ouch, thats not a lot!
....
If you don't think that is pretty good, I'd love to work in your business... that is over $1bn in revenue, just from the Cybertruck.....
ETA : And Ford were losing roughly $100,000 per EV they sold over the last quarter. Now that is a lot!
Edited by EddieSteadyGo on Tuesday 25th June 21:15
EddieSteadyGo said:
off_again said:
Is that all? Just checked and its 11,688 from November 13th to June 6th production - ouch, thats not a lot!
....
If you don't think that is pretty good, I'd love to work in your business... that is over $1bn in revenue, just from the Cybertruck.....
ETA : And Ford were losing roughly $100,000 per EV they sold over the last quarter. Now that is a lot!
Edited by EddieSteadyGo on Tuesday 25th June 21:15
Your comment about being in a particular business - there is good business and there is bad business. Just because its $1bn in revenue, doesnt make it good business. They are failing to turn reservations into orders in anything near the volume that was hyped. They have had a number of recalls already and the sales numbers are no where near what was hoped. So yeah, its all positive because its $1bn in revenue. Ok, lets go with that.
off_again said:
I do find it funny that suddenly its about revenue now that some other figures come out. Musk even called out that the Cybertruck wont be profitable until 2025. So it is strange that you call this out, given that the Cybertruck is also losing money on each and every one they sell.....
Your comment about being in a particular business - there is good business and there is bad business. Just because its $1bn in revenue, doesnt make it good business. They are failing to turn reservations into orders in anything near the volume that was hyped. They have had a number of recalls already and the sales numbers are no where near what was hoped. So yeah, its all positive because its $1bn in revenue. Ok, lets go with that.
Current sales are constrained by production capacity rather than demand. We know that because they are still restricting sales to the 'founder edition' series which are much more expensive than normal. Your comment about being in a particular business - there is good business and there is bad business. Just because its $1bn in revenue, doesnt make it good business. They are failing to turn reservations into orders in anything near the volume that was hyped. They have had a number of recalls already and the sales numbers are no where near what was hoped. So yeah, its all positive because its $1bn in revenue. Ok, lets go with that.
I would expect current sales to be profitable when measured at some kind of 'underlying' gross margin level (unlike Ford), but probably not currently profitable when taking into all their production overheads costs as they are only around 25% of eventual production rate.
off_again said:
I do find it funny that suddenly its about revenue now that some other figures come out. Musk even called out that the Cybertruck wont be profitable until 2025. So it is strange that you call this out, given that the Cybertruck is also losing money on each and every one they sell.....
Your comment about being in a particular business - there is good business and there is bad business. Just because its $1bn in revenue, doesnt make it good business. They are failing to turn reservations into orders in anything near the volume that was hyped. They have had a number of recalls already and the sales numbers are no where near what was hoped. So yeah, its all positive because its $1bn in revenue. Ok, lets go with that.
It's an extremely expensive car to run in the US with insurance and it needs to be mass market volume. The numbers might stack up if they get their 1/4m sales but they won't get that volume if the car is uninsurable and unreliable. It's a prototype kind of launch and that has brought a certain amount of ridicule so there is a bit of a jump to be made to get people to take it as a serious vehicle.Your comment about being in a particular business - there is good business and there is bad business. Just because its $1bn in revenue, doesnt make it good business. They are failing to turn reservations into orders in anything near the volume that was hyped. They have had a number of recalls already and the sales numbers are no where near what was hoped. So yeah, its all positive because its $1bn in revenue. Ok, lets go with that.
I have my doubts they will get to the volume that they have targeted.
EddieSteadyGo said:
off_again said:
I do find it funny that suddenly its about revenue now that some other figures come out. Musk even called out that the Cybertruck wont be profitable until 2025. So it is strange that you call this out, given that the Cybertruck is also losing money on each and every one they sell.....
Your comment about being in a particular business - there is good business and there is bad business. Just because its $1bn in revenue, doesnt make it good business. They are failing to turn reservations into orders in anything near the volume that was hyped. They have had a number of recalls already and the sales numbers are no where near what was hoped. So yeah, its all positive because its $1bn in revenue. Ok, lets go with that.
Current sales are constrained by production capacity rather than demand. We know that because they are still restricting sales to the 'founder edition' series which are much more expensive than normal. Your comment about being in a particular business - there is good business and there is bad business. Just because its $1bn in revenue, doesnt make it good business. They are failing to turn reservations into orders in anything near the volume that was hyped. They have had a number of recalls already and the sales numbers are no where near what was hoped. So yeah, its all positive because its $1bn in revenue. Ok, lets go with that.
I would expect current sales to be profitable when measured at some kind of 'underlying' gross margin level (unlike Ford), but probably not currently profitable when taking into all their production overheads costs as they are only around 25% of eventual production rate.
https://cleanenergyrevolution.co/2023/10/19/tesla-...
rscott said:
Musk himself said the truck won't be profitable until at least 18 months after launch, and that's assuming they ramp up production to 250,000 a year. Current sales are less than 10,000 this year, so less than 10% of eventual production rate, not 25%.
https://cleanenergyrevolution.co/2023/10/19/tesla-...
I believe the current production rate is around 25%. And I was referring to gross profit. Clearly they won't make a net profit when only at that level of production rate.https://cleanenergyrevolution.co/2023/10/19/tesla-...
soupdragon1 said:
off_again said:
I do find it funny that suddenly its about revenue now that some other figures come out. Musk even called out that the Cybertruck wont be profitable until 2025. So it is strange that you call this out, given that the Cybertruck is also losing money on each and every one they sell.....
Your comment about being in a particular business - there is good business and there is bad business. Just because its $1bn in revenue, doesnt make it good business. They are failing to turn reservations into orders in anything near the volume that was hyped. They have had a number of recalls already and the sales numbers are no where near what was hoped. So yeah, its all positive because its $1bn in revenue. Ok, lets go with that.
It's an extremely expensive car to run in the US with insurance and it needs to be mass market volume. The numbers might stack up if they get their 1/4m sales but they won't get that volume if the car is uninsurable and unreliable. It's a prototype kind of launch and that has brought a certain amount of ridicule so there is a bit of a jump to be made to get people to take it as a serious vehicle.Your comment about being in a particular business - there is good business and there is bad business. Just because its $1bn in revenue, doesnt make it good business. They are failing to turn reservations into orders in anything near the volume that was hyped. They have had a number of recalls already and the sales numbers are no where near what was hoped. So yeah, its all positive because its $1bn in revenue. Ok, lets go with that.
I have my doubts they will get to the volume that they have targeted.
The runaway CT owner has also tweeted that it'll be $30k for repairs BUT a 1 year wait for parts.
EddieSteadyGo said:
rscott said:
Musk himself said the truck won't be profitable until at least 18 months after launch, and that's assuming they ramp up production to 250,000 a year. Current sales are less than 10,000 this year, so less than 10% of eventual production rate, not 25%.
https://cleanenergyrevolution.co/2023/10/19/tesla-...
I believe the current production rate is around 25%. And I was referring to gross profit. Clearly they won't make a net profit when only at that level of production rate.https://cleanenergyrevolution.co/2023/10/19/tesla-...
https://www.nhtsa.gov/vehicle/2024/TESLA/CYBERTRUC...
Very helpfully, they have different production dates:-
Truck bed affects all produced from launch until 26th May - 11,383 vehicles
Wiper affects all produced from launch until 6th June - 11,668 vehicles.
So that's 285 more vehicles in the extra 11 days..
rscott said:
There were actually 2 recalls issued on the 19th - one for the wipers and another for a problem with the truck bed. Part of it can detach and become a hazard to other users.
https://www.nhtsa.gov/vehicle/2024/TESLA/CYBERTRUC...
Very helpfully, they have different production dates:-
Truck bed affects all produced from launch until 26th May - 11,383 vehicles
Wiper affects all produced from launch until 6th June - 11,668 vehicles.
So that's 285 more vehicles in the extra 11 days..
I would assume the reported "number of vehicles affected" would relate to those trucks delivered, not produced. If they know they have a issue which needs attention, they are going to limit customer deliveries. Hence I suspect your assumed/estimated current production rate is far too low. But we will find out more detail no doubt later next month when we get Q2 results.https://www.nhtsa.gov/vehicle/2024/TESLA/CYBERTRUC...
Very helpfully, they have different production dates:-
Truck bed affects all produced from launch until 26th May - 11,383 vehicles
Wiper affects all produced from launch until 6th June - 11,668 vehicles.
So that's 285 more vehicles in the extra 11 days..
Not much of a premium on used CT - https://carsandbids.com/search/tesla/cybertruck?cs...
Cyberbeast Foundation edition is approx $120k new and only selling for $135k . Of course, that comes with FSD as standard. Well, sort of - it comes with a promise that FSD will arrive at some point in the future at some unspecified date..
Wonder when they'll manage to produce wheel covers which don't destroy the tyres ?
Cyberbeast Foundation edition is approx $120k new and only selling for $135k . Of course, that comes with FSD as standard. Well, sort of - it comes with a promise that FSD will arrive at some point in the future at some unspecified date..
Wonder when they'll manage to produce wheel covers which don't destroy the tyres ?
EddieSteadyGo said:
I would assume the reported "number of vehicles affected" would relate to those trucks delivered, not produced. If they know they have a issue which needs attention, they are going to limit customer deliveries. Hence I suspect your assumed/estimated current production rate is far too low. But we will find out more detail no doubt later next month when we get Q2 results.
I couldn't seem to find an answer on whether that figure is "produced" or "delivered" and given the recall document makes explicit mention of "Cybertruck vehicles at delivery centers and in transit to delivery centers received or will receive the remedy described above prior to customer delivery." it's far from clear cut that it excludes pre-delivery vehiclesrscott said:
I can see how insurance is so bad - https://insideevs.com/news/724374/tesla-cybertruck... .
More vapourware from the man who 'knows more about manufacturing than anyone else on the planet'."This truck is labeled a flood vehicle, which makes even less sense when you see the flood line indicator below the door sill. Like other Tesla vehicles, the Cybertruck places the battery pack underneath the cabin. However, Musk also claimed that the truck would be "waterproof enough to serve briefly as a boat, so it can cross rivers, lakes, and even seas that aren’t too choppy.""
tangerine_sedge said:
mko9 said:
Byker28i said:
mko9 said:
Byker28i said:
Interesting claim
[Img]https://i.imgur.com/lbyAYkm.jpeg[/thumb]
That dude is a moron. Do the sums on the 2nd and 3rd columns. Tesla sells more EVs than the rest of the market combined. So if their number go down, then pretty much the market goes down. They are cratering so hard they barely sell more than everyone else combined![Img]https://i.imgur.com/lbyAYkm.jpeg[/thumb]
But hey you call him a moron because you think he's blaspheming
Edited by Byker28i on Tuesday 18th June 08:19
“blaspheming”, you are such a clown.
Kodak, IBM, Nokia, Blackberry, Microsoft...
They all held dominant positions in the market, took their eyes off the ball and got overtaken. I personally think that Tesla is on the same trajectory.
Nokia and Blackberry failed to make the right bets or failed on execution. Kodak invented digital photography decades ahead of time and were even an early mover in digital photography. Their long term issue was digital photography got bound into the smart phone eco-system a stand alone digital camera existed only for about 10 years. The correct strategy in hindsight was to move into something completely different using their existing skills which is what FujiFilm did.
Tesla are very different to the other examples in that they aren't failing to move with the technology, the argument is that they aren't investing enough in product development for their existing products and are spending too much on the technology that will obsolete their current technology. The outcomes I can see are:
- Tesla crack self driving first and in the near term, build their own robot taxi fleet and licence their self drive technology to competitors and become the worlds most valuable company. The revenue for all of this goes into AI/robotics which is a truly unlimited market (you reach a limit as to how many cars you can have but the amount of opportunities for human like work are basically unlimited)
- Tesla crack self driving first in the near term, but legislative hold ups slow the implementation process for long enough for fast followers to catch up. It becomes a race to the bottom on price and they are just one of many suppliers of autonomous cars and software. The value of the company in this circumstances would still be as much as it is today adjusted for time/risk value of money.
- Tesla doesn't crack self driving in the near term and neither does anyone else. In this context Tesla likely retains a cost advantage over non Chinese car makers and grows market share in places not subject to Chinese competition as cars all move to EVs. They end up as a large car marker with a decent profit margin along with being a major supplier of utility batteries everywhere the Chinese are held back by tariffs.
- Someone else cracks self driving first; this outcome is highly dependent on how they crack it and whether Tesla is agile enough to follow or innovate past the other parties. At the moment Tesla's goals are much loftier than Google/Cruise etc to build an infinitely scalable locally controlled general purpose AI driver. If one of them starts scaling with their approach Tesla could likely start using some of the "crutches" like mapping, LIDAR and off-board safety drivers to rapidly achieve level 5 autonomy but on a much lower per car cost base. It wouldn't surprise me if this is their actual plan or one of them.
Unless they run out of money/cash (currently unlikely) or Elon goes mad or leaves (more likely) I would put a high likelihood on them riding both the current electrification disruption and any further AI based disruption to become a much larger and more valuable company. The threat isn't from car makers now it's from AI/digital companies, the really interesting thing is what is in secret roadmap v4, Tesla has a lot of cash so could very rapidly expand into non-automotive markets by acquisitions or replication.
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