Elon Musk $41B offer for Twitter

[rscott]

Another basic fault with the Cybertruck - the windscreen wiper motors aren't doing the job properly and rumour they may need to replace them on ever truck sold.

https://electrek.co/2024/06/15/tesla-cybertruck-de...

[Byker28i]

Interesting claim

[tangerine_sedge]

Byker28i said:

Interesting claim

[Img]https://i.imgur.com/lbyAYkm.jpeg[/thumb]

Interesting data, but GM & Volkswagen also had a year of falling sales, so I think it's more likely tied to their product offerings. I don't know much about the US EV market, but I wonder if it's as simple as the other manufacturers launched new models at competetive price points, which stole orders from the others?

Tesla don't seem to have any new models in the pipeline, so I can see this pattern continuing next year unless Tesla do something unexpected like massively drop prices on their existing range to stimulate sales.

[Byker28i]

Quite like the S I think they got that model right in that it looks timeless. The others look dated now. Mind you there's some ugly EV's around now

[shakotan]

Byker28i said:

Again, Musk is a tt, but his companies products are good, especially the rocket stuff.

You mean the stuff that actually gets to market. Not the vapourware stuff he promises and never delivers? Or the bits of the products that do come along that only have half the promised features, or don't work properly and need to be recalled or reworked?

Now and again the rocket stuff works, but mostly it blows up, plunges into the sea or re-enters the atmosphere backwards. When then doesn't happen, they are fantastic.

[shakotan]

Oliver Hardy said:

Would ot be legal to do a personal import into Europe out of curiousity?

No, it wouldn't pass the BIVA test in the UK. The sharp edge test would rule it out before you even got to any of the operational stuff.

[menguin]

shakotan said:

Byker28i said:

Again, Musk is a tt, but his companies products are good, especially the rocket stuff.

You mean the stuff that actually gets to market. Not the vapourware stuff he promises and never delivers? Or the bits of the products that do come along that only have half the promised features, or don't work properly and need to be recalled or reworked?

Now and again the rocket stuff works, but mostly it blows up, plunges into the sea or re-enters the atmosphere backwards. When then doesn't happen, they are fantastic.

The rockets are arguably the most reliable flying, and ever flown, especially considering they are reused. They just flew a booster for the last time, on its 20th flight - unheard of, and laughed at to even think possible 15 years ago.

Other than that, he's a twunt though

[off_again]

tangerine_sedge said:

Byker28i said:

Interesting claim

[Img]https://i.imgur.com/lbyAYkm.jpeg[/thumb]

Interesting data, but GM & Volkswagen also had a year of falling sales, so I think it's more likely tied to their product offerings. I don't know much about the US EV market, but I wonder if it's as simple as the other manufacturers launched new models at competetive price points, which stole orders from the others?

Tesla don't seem to have any new models in the pipeline, so I can see this pattern continuing next year unless Tesla do something unexpected like massively drop prices on their existing range to stimulate sales.

Yeah, very interesting data points.

Not sure about VW, but here in the US, its a mixed bag all around.

Ford is doing a great job and sales are continuing increasing around EV's. They are losing money on each one, but its narrowing and they are heading in the right direction. GM had a bit of a nightmare year for EV's, but their other products sold well and they increased total sales. GM EV's had a number of issues and recalls and stop sale orders. Some got out of the door (the Lyric being one), but thats not the volume seller, so it didnt make a real impact. Now that the GM EV's are available for sale, I fully expect to see them shift a good number as they bring customers in and do deals on them.

It is annoying that there always seems to be some sort of spin involved. I got sick and tired of seeing that Rivian R1T sales were down dramatically, yet failing to mention that R1S sales jumped up and above the drop in the pickup. Its all about spin - why cant we just have some good reporting from some sources? Anyway, I am not quite seeing the dramatic drop off Tesla sales. Yes, the rest of the market is still increasing, but I think there is more to the Tesla sales than meets the eye and it cant be written off that easily. I do expect that Tesla will have a couple more quarters of stumbling to go, but I do think that it is just that - a stumble. They will figure it out and get back on track, and I dont think its as bad as it is potentially being reported as though.

[mko9]

Byker28i said:

Interesting claim

[Img]https://i.imgur.com/lbyAYkm.jpeg[/thumb]

That dude is a moron. Do the sums on the 2nd and 3rd columns. Tesla sells more EVs than the rest of the market combined. So if their number go down, then pretty much the market goes down. They are cratering so hard they barely sell more than everyone else combined!

[WestyCarl]

shakotan said:

Now and again the rocket stuff works, but mostly it blows up, plunges into the sea or re-enters the atmosphere backwards. When then doesn't happen, they are fantastic.

I assume you are being argumentative for effect.

The current space X Falcon 9 (that takes all the payloads)

"Rockets from the Falcon 9 family have been launched 354 times over 14 years, resulting in 352 full successes (99.44%)"

[durbster]

mko9 said:

Byker28i said:

Interesting claim

[Img]https://i.imgur.com/lbyAYkm.jpeg[/thumb]

That dude is a moron. Do the sums on the 2nd and 3rd columns. Tesla sells more EVs than the rest of the market combined. So if their number go down, then pretty much the market goes down. They are cratering so hard they barely sell more than everyone else combined!

Isn't that literally what the dude says?

This is for the Tesla thread really but it looks like the numbers are from here: https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/q1-2024...

[tangerine_sedge]

off_again said:

tangerine_sedge said:

Byker28i said:

Interesting claim

[Img]https://i.imgur.com/lbyAYkm.jpeg[/thumb]

I do expect that Tesla will have a couple more quarters of stumbling to go, but I do think that it is just that - a stumble. They will figure it out and get back on track, and I dont think its as bad as it is potentially being reported as though.

I don't have a crystal ball, but I think that Tesla potentially face a long term problem. Musk has managed to make the brand toxic with a bunch of customers, has continually failed to deliver on his promises, and the rest of the market is catching up. The other brands are producing good cars across multiple segments, and once the Chinese brands start to bring the prices down, then Tesla won't have anywhere to hide.

[EddieSteadyGo]

off_again said:

Yeah, very interesting data points.

Not sure about VW, but here in the US, its a mixed bag all around.

Ford is doing a great job and sales are continuing increasing around EV's. They are losing money on each one, but its narrowing and they are heading in the right direction. GM had a bit of a nightmare year for EV's, but their other products sold well and they increased total sales. GM EV's had a number of issues and recalls and stop sale orders. Some got out of the door (the Lyric being one), but thats not the volume seller, so it didnt make a real impact. Now that the GM EV's are available for sale, I fully expect to see them shift a good number as they bring customers in and do deals on them.

It is annoying that there always seems to be some sort of spin involved. I got sick and tired of seeing that Rivian R1T sales were down dramatically, yet failing to mention that R1S sales jumped up and above the drop in the pickup. Its all about spin - why cant we just have some good reporting from some sources? Anyway, I am not quite seeing the dramatic drop off Tesla sales. Yes, the rest of the market is still increasing, but I think there is more to the Tesla sales than meets the eye and it cant be written off that easily. I do expect that Tesla will have a couple more quarters of stumbling to go, but I do think that it is just that - a stumble. They will figure it out and get back on track, and I dont think its as bad as it is potentially being reported as though.

I think 'spin' is the word which usually sums up anyone trying to use simplistic figures to tell the story about what is happening with the transition to EVs.

Reality is Ford, and Rivian and GM are all losing a fortune on EVs they currently sell. That might be ok, in the long-term, but looking at sales figures for Q1 and drawing a conclusion about the relative health of Tesla vs their competitors isn't insightful (not that you were doing that).

Plus the current market in the US is skewed by the $7,500 tax credit subsidy. Now the Model 3 LR qualifies in the US, I think we will see quite a big increase in sales of that car, as $40,000 for the Long Range version is seriously good value imo.

The other difficulty is no-one really knows what the 'S shape' market adaption curve will eventually look like in the US and other major car markets. I think (most) industry experts accept that electric vehicles will eventually dominate over petrol/diesel, but quite how long that transition takes is very uncertain.

[off_again]

EddieSteadyGo said:

The other difficulty is no-one really knows what the 'S shape' market adaption curve will eventually look like in the US and other major car markets. I think (most) industry experts accept that electric vehicles will eventually dominate over petrol/diesel, but quite how long that transition takes is very uncertain.

Thats the problem - we are in uncharted waters!

I dont think we will get close to what some politicians are pushing for, but what numbers I have seen show that there will be a continual rise in the number of EV's in use around the world. Its coming, just we dont really know what it might look like yet.... which is weird.

So Tesla's sales has tumbled, well fallen pretty dramatically, but they are over exposed on their model line up. Only the 3 and Y are big sellers, but other manufacturers have a biggest spread (EV, ICE and PHEV) - Tesla only has 2 models. So yeah, its going to be a pretty hard hit. But then again, they only have 2 volume sellers - they dont have 5+ different SUV's to store parts for, have different production lines for etc. I would think (and I have been wrong many times before) that they will still make money on everything they make, certainly in the short term due to simplicity of production and limited model range.

They will figure this out. There are too many smart people there, and various pricing, finance and other mechanisms will be used to shift cars. I dont doubt it for a minute.

[rscott]

EddieSteadyGo said:

off_again said:

Yeah, very interesting data points.

Not sure about VW, but here in the US, its a mixed bag all around.

Ford is doing a great job and sales are continuing increasing around EV's. They are losing money on each one, but its narrowing and they are heading in the right direction. GM had a bit of a nightmare year for EV's, but their other products sold well and they increased total sales. GM EV's had a number of issues and recalls and stop sale orders. Some got out of the door (the Lyric being one), but thats not the volume seller, so it didnt make a real impact. Now that the GM EV's are available for sale, I fully expect to see them shift a good number as they bring customers in and do deals on them.

It is annoying that there always seems to be some sort of spin involved. I got sick and tired of seeing that Rivian R1T sales were down dramatically, yet failing to mention that R1S sales jumped up and above the drop in the pickup. Its all about spin - why cant we just have some good reporting from some sources? Anyway, I am not quite seeing the dramatic drop off Tesla sales. Yes, the rest of the market is still increasing, but I think there is more to the Tesla sales than meets the eye and it cant be written off that easily. I do expect that Tesla will have a couple more quarters of stumbling to go, but I do think that it is just that - a stumble. They will figure it out and get back on track, and I dont think its as bad as it is potentially being reported as though.

I think 'spin' is the word which usually sums up anyone trying to use simplistic figures to tell the story about what is happening with the transition to EVs.

Reality is Ford, and Rivian and GM are all losing a fortune on EVs they currently sell. That might be ok, in the long-term, but looking at sales figures for Q1 and drawing a conclusion about the relative health of Tesla vs their competitors isn't insightful (not that you were doing that).

Plus the current market in the US is skewed by the $7,500 tax credit subsidy. Now the Model 3 LR qualifies in the US, I think we will see quite a big increase in sales of that car, as $40,000 for the Long Range version is seriously good value imo.

The other difficulty is no-one really knows what the 'S shape' market adaption curve will eventually look like in the US and other major car markets. I think (most) industry experts accept that electric vehicles will eventually dominate over petrol/diesel, but quite how long that transition takes is very uncertain.

The Model 3 LR will qualify for the tax credit from July 5th after the US government tweaked the eligibility rules (for source materials for the battery).

Reading a Reddit conversation about it and noticed that Tesla are still failing at simple order processing and customer communication. Person ordered M3P on launch (end April), but haven't got their VIN, yet someone else ordered 6 weeks later and gets their car on Wednesday.
Seems to be related to where they are in the US, but no one from Tesla is telling them why there are delays.

[Byker28i]

mko9 said:

Byker28i said:

Interesting claim

[Img]https://i.imgur.com/lbyAYkm.jpeg[/thumb]

That dude is a moron. Do the sums on the 2nd and 3rd columns. Tesla sells more EVs than the rest of the market combined. So if their number go down, then pretty much the market goes down. They are cratering so hard they barely sell more than everyone else combined!

Erm, thats exactly the point he's making, that Tesla sell so many that they skew the results when the sales fall?
But hey you call him a moron because you think he's blaspheming

Edited by Byker28i on Tuesday 18th June 08:19

[Byker28i]

Saw that comment about the LR model too


$7500 reduction in cost should help sales?

Bit more here
https://insideevs.com/news/723514/tesla-model-3-lr...

Edited by Byker28i on Tuesday 18th June 08:25

[98elise]

WestyCarl said:

shakotan said:

Now and again the rocket stuff works, but mostly it blows up, plunges into the sea or re-enters the atmosphere backwards. When then doesn't happen, they are fantastic.

I assume you are being argumentative for effect.

The current space X Falcon 9 (that takes all the payloads)

"Rockets from the Falcon 9 family have been launched 354 times over 14 years, resulting in 352 full successes (99.44%)"

Agreed. Last year has almost 100 sucessfull launches, and this year is on track for 150 launches. How is that working "now and again"

Another poster on this thread said they didn’t believe they land rockets!

[dobbo_]

This guy. Absolute state of him, just a full on, no filter, racist POS.

But rockets, I guess.

[Talksteer]

tangerine_sedge said:

off_again said:

tangerine_sedge said:

Byker28i said:

Interesting claim

[Img]https://i.imgur.com/lbyAYkm.jpeg[/thumb]

I do expect that Tesla will have a couple more quarters of stumbling to go, but I do think that it is just that - a stumble. They will figure it out and get back on track, and I dont think its as bad as it is potentially being reported as though.

I don't have a crystal ball, but I think that Tesla potentially face a long term problem. Musk has managed to make the brand toxic with a bunch of customers, has continually failed to deliver on his promises, and the rest of the market is catching up. The other brands are producing good cars across multiple segments, and once the Chinese brands start to bring the prices down, then Tesla won't have anywhere to hide.

Re: Toxicity, it's not helpful but also not necessarily the biggest issue in the world, most people don't buy new cars particularly ones that trend towards the upper end of prices and are a newish technology. Frankly how much people like Elon Musk is highly correlated by how techie they are so the venn diagram of people who dislike his antics and people would would/could buy a Tesla may not overlap that much.

On Twitter Musk also has plenty of followers, 185 million to be precise. A 1% conversion rate of followers to Tesla buyers would eat nearly all Tesla production, ergo he doesn't need to be universally popular to sell a lot of cars. Bill Gates wasn't popular when he was the worlds richest CEO but we all bought windows anyway.

The Chinese thing is "interesting", the Chinese brands aren't wizards and skilled Chinese workers aren't paid that much less that in the western world nor is labour even the biggest cost in car manufacturing. Chinese consumers are basically subsidising the cost of Chinese EVs with a beggar thy neighbour economics and the EU and US have just imposed tariffs that will force them to either quit those markets or bring their production to the EU/NAFTA at which point there will be a much greater transparency on their costs. In the longer term the Chinese will need to just consume more of their output and pay their workers more which will reduce their advantage anyway.

Tesla is also likely to hoover up enormous amounts of money from the US inflation reduction act which will at very least solidify their position rather than allow others to catch up there. Shielded from Chinese imports and with a local presence it is likely that they will maintain their cost advantage in the EU as well. Compared to everyone but the Chinese Tesla is generally able to produce vehicles which are objectively good value and still have a high gross margin on them.

Longer term I think what is happening at Tesla is that Musk is viewing car production as a revenue stream that pays for Tesla's AI work. If they win that race and/or commercialise the android then their value will far exceed that of a car company. The issue with that strategy is what happens if the moment where that breakthrough happens to too far in the future and the car company's progress stalls because they don't have enough models, or what happens if they win the self driving race but society and legislation take so long to catch up that other fast followers (read Chinese) catch up and take all the value out of self driving.

Previously I'd have said given Musk's track record and insider knowledge of Tesla's AI work I'd definitely trust his judgement on that but the Twitter purchase puts a serious dint in his reputation.