Discussion
Porridge GTI said:
Anyone else think this is the end of the expat dream in the UAE? Any personal stories to share about how it is affecting you?
Unless a major war kicks off I think mostly the lifestyle will continue out here.Despite all the negativity just look around, Dubai is hardly quiet at the moment, id say its the busiest I can remember for the last almost 4 years that I have been here.
One advantage to the oil price the companies taking the hit are streamlining and making efficiency savings, so when (if) the price bounces back they will be in a much better position.
The 'expat dream' is largely a fabrication made by expats who left their old lives behind to find that their new lives aren't as rosy as they hoped, surely? Don't get me wrong, the lifestyle out here can be good, but it's far from the Utopia many claim. I mean, there's only a certain amount of brunches and desert dune bashing one can stomach before the novelty wears off, surely?
Anyway, the days of such a 'Utopia' slipped away years back, IMO. Rents are now preposterously high and working conditions are tough for western expats whose visa allocations are being squeezed now that 'qualified' resource can be sourced for a fraction of the cost from the subcontinent.
The ramifications from the oil crash have still yet to make their presence fully felt, and whilst it's unlikely that the remaining westerners will see drastic cuts in their salaries (after all, who else is going to keep the inflated rental market afloat?), such resource will likely be squeezed even harder as projects drastically down-man; meaning even less time to enjoy the few finer things in life this region has to offer.
It also means that many folk in this good industry of ours will go to bed at night worried about whether they have a job in the morning; something I don't foresee easing off for a good couple of years yet.
Having said all that, however, I'd sure as s
t rather be here than back in UK right now.
Anyway, the days of such a 'Utopia' slipped away years back, IMO. Rents are now preposterously high and working conditions are tough for western expats whose visa allocations are being squeezed now that 'qualified' resource can be sourced for a fraction of the cost from the subcontinent.
The ramifications from the oil crash have still yet to make their presence fully felt, and whilst it's unlikely that the remaining westerners will see drastic cuts in their salaries (after all, who else is going to keep the inflated rental market afloat?), such resource will likely be squeezed even harder as projects drastically down-man; meaning even less time to enjoy the few finer things in life this region has to offer.
It also means that many folk in this good industry of ours will go to bed at night worried about whether they have a job in the morning; something I don't foresee easing off for a good couple of years yet.
Having said all that, however, I'd sure as s
t rather be here than back in UK right now.The oil price moves in cycles, that once were shallow and long and now are deep and sudden.
What's happening now is that all the oil majors are underinvesting, which will result in less delivery as it takes years to develop a new field.
It's not time to go long on oil just yet, but the fundamentals point at production becoming lower than total consumption in a year or so, then once the glut is out of the market price will rise.
That's unless they finalize cold fusion within 18 months.
As for Dubai, it seems they are well placed to ride this out, considering that most of the iranian traders will want to set up shop here now that the sanctions are being lifted.
Expats had it good for a long time. This is the last generation to have the chance.
What's happening now is that all the oil majors are underinvesting, which will result in less delivery as it takes years to develop a new field.
It's not time to go long on oil just yet, but the fundamentals point at production becoming lower than total consumption in a year or so, then once the glut is out of the market price will rise.
That's unless they finalize cold fusion within 18 months.
As for Dubai, it seems they are well placed to ride this out, considering that most of the iranian traders will want to set up shop here now that the sanctions are being lifted.
Expats had it good for a long time. This is the last generation to have the chance.
stuckmojo said:
considering that most of the iranian traders will want to set up shop here now that the sanctions are being lifted.
To set up? The place is full of Iranian backed companies as it was one of the few places they can get the cash through freely whilst the sanctions had been in place, as the Persian new year kicks in middle of March will be a drastic reduction in spending for 3 weeks as no money comes out of Iran during that time.All in all though Dubai must surely be the best place from an economy point of view in this region as it does have many arms to its income unlike other places in the GCC which are purely relying on oil incomes.
low oil price is doing our industry the world of good tbh, african market in particular is booming.
i do agree that 'qualified' cheaper professionals from the subcontinent is having an impact. i put that in inverted commas as the knowledge and experience is usually lacking but when has the UAE ever favoured quality over cost?
i also sense china will have more of an influence going foward. DWC airport expansion is being funded by the chinese in return for all major contracts for it going east. can't see much investment coming from elsewhere tbh and the well is still dry from the last crash.
i do agree that 'qualified' cheaper professionals from the subcontinent is having an impact. i put that in inverted commas as the knowledge and experience is usually lacking but when has the UAE ever favoured quality over cost?
i also sense china will have more of an influence going foward. DWC airport expansion is being funded by the chinese in return for all major contracts for it going east. can't see much investment coming from elsewhere tbh and the well is still dry from the last crash.
Both my wife and I are in the oil industry in UAE and yes there are worries here, but we are in an infinitely better position than if we were still in the UK.
Obviously things are changing; subsidies being reduced or stopped (fuel), tax looming (VAT) but on the other hand the rental market would seem to be settling out to help offset that and as things continue in the same manner the cost I'd hope will flatten out.
ADNOC are still pushing for increased production, and yes things are being stretched to make that happen at current prices but at least there's work to be had.
As mentioned above, Dubai and AD especially are well fitted to see this out by supplementing oil revenues with other incomes. Dubai has made the full on push to tourist destination and financial hub long ago, and whilst AD is playing catch up on those it's still well ahead of most of the region.
On the horizon there is also hope that OPEC are at least showing a willingness to discuss limiting production, whereas up until a couple of weeks ago it wasn't something, publicly at least, that they would entertain.
We've also got a weak pound currently too, so if you're being paid locally and building to return there at some point it would be a good time to take advantage of that.
All in it's not too bad yet!
Obviously things are changing; subsidies being reduced or stopped (fuel), tax looming (VAT) but on the other hand the rental market would seem to be settling out to help offset that and as things continue in the same manner the cost I'd hope will flatten out.
ADNOC are still pushing for increased production, and yes things are being stretched to make that happen at current prices but at least there's work to be had.
As mentioned above, Dubai and AD especially are well fitted to see this out by supplementing oil revenues with other incomes. Dubai has made the full on push to tourist destination and financial hub long ago, and whilst AD is playing catch up on those it's still well ahead of most of the region.
On the horizon there is also hope that OPEC are at least showing a willingness to discuss limiting production, whereas up until a couple of weeks ago it wasn't something, publicly at least, that they would entertain.
We've also got a weak pound currently too, so if you're being paid locally and building to return there at some point it would be a good time to take advantage of that.
All in it's not too bad yet!
3% "Tax" added to expat rentals in Abu Dhabi announced, backdated to Feb. Another straw added to the camels back?
http://www.thenational.ae/business/property/abu-dh...
http://www.thenational.ae/business/property/abu-dh...
I'm going with a positive headline, but when you read the details no firm agreement will be made to either reduce or cut production. Oil Price to rise by a couple of dollars, followed by a steady decline towards end of week back to where we're at now to the low $40's.
All my own guess and I stand by to be wrong.
All my own guess and I stand by to be wrong.
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