Ukraine Air Force ground losses and solution?

Ukraine Air Force ground losses and solution?

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Discussion

Jake899

Original Poster:

546 posts

51 months

Wednesday 3rd July
quotequote all
Saw today the Ukrainians lost at least two SU-27s this week.
Oryx have yet to update these on their list and are waiting confirmation of losses.
As of today those confirmed losses are:

27 MiG-29 losses
13 Su-27
17 Su-25
19 Su-24
Plus one unidentified jet making a total of 77 frontline fighters lost so far.

The significance of these recent losses is that Russian surveillance drones spotted and guided Iskander missiles in to hit aircraft resting out in the open at Mirgorod airfield, 100 miles from the front. The fact that aircraft are left outside this close to the front is difficult to believe and a very foolish action from the Ukrainians, who can ill afford these losses.

The problem is, that in both sides of this war, secure basing is hard to find. Even when the F-16 and Mirage arrive, if they are left out on aprons, they are going to get hit.

So whats the solution?

Well the US and China invest heavily in canopies at their airfields, making it impossible to see whether aircraft are in them or not, though some sensors will be able to pick up returns if there are heat sources.

But the most sure solution is to copy the North Vietnamese during the Vietnam war.

Base your planes in Poland and the Baltics.

If the planes are based there they are still in reach of the frontline, and unless Putin wants a major escalation, they are not going to attack aircraft parked in NATO bases.

While it would take some commitment from partner nations, its a foolsafe way of protecting your aircraft if you are Ukraine.

Wacky Racer

38,972 posts

254 months

Wednesday 3rd July
quotequote all
Difficult one.

In WW2 they made some wooden decoys of Tanks, Spitfires etc.

Whether it would work today with the power of modern spy satellites that can spot a cigarette packet on the ground.

LimaDelta

6,949 posts

225 months

Wednesday 3rd July
quotequote all
Wacky Racer said:
Difficult one.

In WW2 they made some wooden decoys of Tanks, Spitfires etc.

Whether it would work today with the power of modern spy satellites that can spot a cigarette packet on the ground.
Still happens. Even with diesel heaters to add a plausible IR signature.


Super Sonic

7,215 posts

61 months

Wednesday 3rd July
quotequote all
Russia will see this as an escalation, and will frame it as Poland and the Baltics joining the conflict. The canopies would be a good idea, heat reflective mylar, as would using decoys and dummys.

GliderRider

2,527 posts

88 months

Wednesday 3rd July
quotequote all
Options:

1. Hardened aircraft shelters (time consuming and costly to build. Aircraft can't be in it all the time.
2. Multiple decoys
3. Better anti aircraft/anti-missile defences (easy to say, much harder to do)

High quality realistic decoys appear to be the easiest option.

Zetec-S

6,258 posts

100 months

Wednesday 3rd July
quotequote all
Jake899 said:
But the most sure solution is to copy the North Vietnamese during the Vietnam war.

Base your planes in Poland and the Baltics.
That must have been a long flight.

andyA700

3,289 posts

44 months

Wednesday 3rd July
quotequote all
Just found this, don't know if it is genuine or not.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iSD-bJA6vR4

aeropilot

36,528 posts

234 months

Wednesday 3rd July
quotequote all
Jake899 said:
Saw today the Ukrainians lost at least two SU-27s this week.
Oryx have yet to update these on their list and are waiting confirmation of losses.
As of today those confirmed losses are:

27 MiG-29 losses
13 Su-27
17 Su-25
19 Su-24
Plus one unidentified jet making a total of 77 frontline fighters lost so far.

The significance of these recent losses is that Russian surveillance drones spotted and guided Iskander missiles in to hit aircraft resting out in the open at Mirgorod airfield, 100 miles from the front. The fact that aircraft are left outside this close to the front is difficult to believe and a very foolish action from the Ukrainians, who can ill afford these losses.

The problem is, that in both sides of this war, secure basing is hard to find. Even when the F-16 and Mirage arrive, if they are left out on aprons, they are going to get hit.

So whats the solution?
Not easy solution in the short term, other than trying to adopt what the Swedes and Finns do, operate from roads in forests etc., which Ukraine could do with the Fulcrums, Flanker's & Frogfoot's, not so easy with the Su-24's and not a hope of doing so with the F-16 (which is probably why they are looking closely at the Gripen for further away into the future)
Better anti-drone detection and weaponary will have to be the longer term aim for everyone now, as this war has proved that drone warfare and the need for cost effective anti-drone warfare is going to be every countries focus looking forward.

ecsrobin

17,821 posts

172 months

Wednesday 3rd July
quotequote all
Wacky Racer said:
Difficult one.

In WW2 they made some wooden decoys of Tanks, Spitfires etc.

Whether it would work today with the power of modern spy satellites that can spot a cigarette packet on the ground.

Simpo Two

87,026 posts

272 months

Wednesday 3rd July
quotequote all
I'm imagining a decoy war where you attack rubber tanks with rubber missiles.

'Boing'.

Krikkit

26,987 posts

188 months

Thursday 4th July
quotequote all
aeropilot said:
Not easy solution in the short term, other than trying to adopt what the Swedes and Finns do, operate from roads in forests etc., which Ukraine could do with the Fulcrums, Flanker's & Frogfoot's, not so easy with the Su-24's and not a hope of doing so with the F-16 (which is probably why they are looking closely at the Gripen for further away into the future)
I know they haven't made that many, but I've thought Ukraine needed the Gripen from the start with its out-of-field design and incredibly low operating costs.

CraigNewmarket

135 posts

143 months

Thursday 4th July
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The F16s will be based in NATO countries which surround Ukraine, probably using NATO pilots too.

MB140

4,353 posts

110 months

Thursday 4th July
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GliderRider said:
Options:

1. Hardened aircraft shelters (time consuming and costly to build. Aircraft can't be in it all the time.
2. Multiple decoys
3. Better anti aircraft/anti-missile defences (easy to say, much harder to do)

High quality realistic decoys appear to be the easiest option.
Having been in Kuwait (Ali Al Salem) post our invasion to turf the Iraqs out working at Ali Al Salem air base.

1) Harden shelters are a waste of time. There a fixed location and Russian has the ability to strike them easily.

2) Dispersing and camouflaging your aircraft is cheap and easy but only works if you can operate them. A lot of countries for example have invested in having operating pans on the side of motorways. Simply remove central barrier, sweep up all the road mess and you have a runway (only useful for visual flying really.

3) Decoys, cheap and effective. Some are as simple as a blow up much up. But you have to make everything else look like night around it too.

4) Anti aircraft/anti missile, very expensive and difficult to do.

Dispersal and Decoys seem the most cost effective way of doing things.

aeropilot

36,528 posts

234 months

Thursday 4th July
quotequote all
CraigNewmarket said:
The F16s will be based in NATO countries which surround Ukraine, probably using NATO pilots too.
Not going to happen.

aeropilot

36,528 posts

234 months

Thursday 4th July
quotequote all
Krikkit said:
aeropilot said:
Not easy solution in the short term, other than trying to adopt what the Swedes and Finns do, operate from roads in forests etc., which Ukraine could do with the Fulcrums, Flanker's & Frogfoot's, not so easy with the Su-24's and not a hope of doing so with the F-16 (which is probably why they are looking closely at the Gripen for further away into the future)
I know they haven't made that many, but I've thought Ukraine needed the Gripen from the start with its out-of-field design and incredibly low operating costs.
That's the point, while Sweden have retired a lot of their early versions, there's no way that they could train enough pilots in time even if there was enough early versions available.......and the only other NATO countries to operate the Gripen, are Czech Rep and Hungary, and the Hungarian's are pro-Pootin, so no chance of them helping out, and the Czech's don't have any capacity, with such a small fleet of Gripen.

No, I think the Gripen E (maybe with a licence to build from Saab) is the future in a post-war Ukraine more than a 'now' or immediate future.


Alias218

1,508 posts

169 months

Monday 8th July
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Simpo Two said:
I'm imagining a decoy war where you attack rubber tanks with rubber missiles.

'Boing'.
There’s the alleged incident during the Second World War where the Germans built a wooden decoy airfield replete with planes, tankers, and buildings, only for the RAF to come along and drop a single wooden bomb on it.

Yertis

18,655 posts

273 months

Monday 8th July
quotequote all
MB140 said:
2) Dispersing and camouflaging your aircraft is cheap and easy but only works if you can operate them. A lot of countries for example have invested in having operating pans on the side of motorways. Simply remove central barrier, sweep up all the road mess and you have a runway (only useful for visual flying really.
Like this

Lots of 1980s coolness there.

Jake899

Original Poster:

546 posts

51 months

Tuesday 9th July
quotequote all
Yertis said:
Like this

Lots of 1980s coolness there.
But F16s are not suitable for dispersed operations, they require long smooth runways and have a tendency to "float" on final approach. I can't think of any operator that has ever done this with F16s. Gripens on the other hand do it regularly, they were designed for that doctrine, so if rumours are correct, once the Ukrainian Airforce is set up with their Vipers, the next on the shopping list would be a squadron or three of Saabs finest.
I think the west has to stop double thinking the responses of Russia to each move. Of course Russia wouldn't like it if Ukrainian aircraft were based in Poland, but A. They aren't going to do anything about it and B. who cares what they think. They are the aggressors in this conflict and historically they only respond to strength.

aeropilot

36,528 posts

234 months

Tuesday 9th July
quotequote all
Jake899 said:
I think the west has to stop double thinking the responses of Russia to each move. Of course Russia wouldn't like it if Ukrainian aircraft were based in Poland, but A. They aren't going to do anything about it and B. who cares what they think. They are the aggressors in this conflict and historically they only respond to strength.
There aren't enough politicians in the west with the balls to sanction it, or even think that way, especially with this year being the big election year in UK, USA and now France with Macron's gamble that may have backfired on him.


Simpo Two

87,026 posts

272 months

Tuesday 9th July
quotequote all
Alias218 said:
There’s the alleged incident during the Second World War where the Germans built a wooden decoy airfield replete with planes, tankers, and buildings, only for the RAF to come along and drop a single wooden bomb on it.
If true, not smart as it would tell the Germans they need to make more realistic decoys...