Discussion
I like many of you keep an eye on the value of my car and had to laugh today when I received my latest 'Yippee! Your valuation has arrived' email from WBAC... it would appear that it's lost about £10k in the last 6 months!
For context, it's a 2019 car, fully loaded with ultimate pack and 27k miles, with the latest valuation coming in at £24.5k! I've got no plans to sell it anytime soon but it does look like interest rates and insurance costs are really starting to hit prices.
I also wonder when this will be reflected in the price sellers are asking as the cheapest equivalent car on Autotrader is still £37k.
Therefore wondering what other peoples experiences are?
For context, it's a 2019 car, fully loaded with ultimate pack and 27k miles, with the latest valuation coming in at £24.5k! I've got no plans to sell it anytime soon but it does look like interest rates and insurance costs are really starting to hit prices.
I also wonder when this will be reflected in the price sellers are asking as the cheapest equivalent car on Autotrader is still £37k.
Therefore wondering what other peoples experiences are?
I'm looking for an F32 440i but have my eye on F82 M4s as well in case a unicorn appears at an irresistible price. My criteria on Auto Trader is 2019, Competition, 35K miles max and £35k max. Since I started looking there has been the odd one, but in recent weeks there has been at least five showing at any given moment, so prices are definitely softening a little. £24.5k is comical though!
MitchT said:
I'm looking for an F32 440i but have my eye on F82 M4s as well in case a unicorn appears at an irresistible price. My criteria on Auto Trader is 2019, Competition, 35K miles max and £35k max. Since I started looking there has been the odd one, but in recent weeks there has been at least five showing at any given moment, so prices are definitely softening a little. £24.5k is comical though!
Tell me about it, looks like a £8-10k margin for some lucky dealers! Good luck with the search, they're awesome cars so you won't regret it.I’m in the opposite position so to speak, as looking to buy a previous mark RS6. People are saying the same in the RS6 forums - wbac prices are now a joke etc. it’s based on several things for me. WBAC is just what dealers are likely to offer you. Reason they’ve dropped imo on that side is I’ve been watching lots of RS6s over the last 2-3 months and none of them have sold. Most of them have had price reductions and still not sold. So dealers probably don’t want anymore stock of things like the M3/M4/RS4/RS6 as they’re just not shifting much. I also think people have invested a lot in their stock as a dealer or not being realistic of current values as private buyers and either don’t won’t to or can’t afford to take such a loss to sell them.
I traded my M4 in for 29k at the start of August through Motorway. It went on the dealers site at 35. September time dropped to 34k. October dropped to 32k. Sold last week but I obviously don’t know what for. But max they made was 3k less warranty/prep costs.
Motorway are now offering 24k for my old car btw.
I traded my M4 in for 29k at the start of August through Motorway. It went on the dealers site at 35. September time dropped to 34k. October dropped to 32k. Sold last week but I obviously don’t know what for. But max they made was 3k less warranty/prep costs.
Motorway are now offering 24k for my old car btw.
Stephen-733s2 said:
I’m in the opposite position so to speak, as looking to buy a previous mark RS6. People are saying the same in the RS6 forums - wbac prices are now a joke etc. it’s based on several things for me. WBAC is just what dealers are likely to offer you. Reason they’ve dropped imo on that side is I’ve been watching lots of RS6s over the last 2-3 months and none of them have sold. Most of them have had price reductions and still not sold. So dealers probably don’t want anymore stock of things like the M3/M4/RS4/RS6 as they’re just not shifting much. I also think people have invested a lot in their stock as a dealer or not being realistic of current values as private buyers and either don’t won’t to or can’t afford to take such a loss to sell them.
I traded my M4 in for 29k at the start of August through Motorway. It went on the dealers site at 35. September time dropped to 34k. October dropped to 32k. Sold last week but I obviously don’t know what for. But max they made was 3k less warranty/prep costs.
Motorway are now offering 24k for my old car btw.
I think you’re right, it’s almost like we’ve been playing musical chairs with cars and now it’s stopped… of well, I could be stuck something a lot worse! I traded my M4 in for 29k at the start of August through Motorway. It went on the dealers site at 35. September time dropped to 34k. October dropped to 32k. Sold last week but I obviously don’t know what for. But max they made was 3k less warranty/prep costs.
Motorway are now offering 24k for my old car btw.
Be interesting what impact it has on Car Finance companies with lots of PCPs on their books as GTVs are going to be so over valued!
According to Auto Trader I've lost £12.5k on mine(Dec 2018 model) in 2.5 years. Nowhere near as bad as yours OP, but I do think the cost of insurance could become an issue with them as well going forward though.
I don't have plans to sell mine, but I probably will if the insurance ends up getting too daft on it though.
I don't have plans to sell mine, but I probably will if the insurance ends up getting too daft on it though.
cerb4.5lee said:
According to Auto Trader I've lost £12.5k on mine(Dec 2018 model) in 2.5 years. Nowhere near as bad as yours OP, but I do think the cost of insurance could become an issue with them as well going forward though.
I don't have plans to sell mine, but I probably will if the insurance ends up getting too daft on it though.
Think you’re right re insurance, I know it’s been debated to death elsewhere but mine doubled in August and then I had another look the other day and it’s gone up another 25% since August if I was renewing right now… not looking forward to next year! I don't have plans to sell mine, but I probably will if the insurance ends up getting too daft on it though.
I looked at a 19 plate M4C 3 weeks ago, AUC car, it’s still on the forecourt , but at £1k less, so £37.2k. I didn’t run an insurance quote, are insurance costs really getting stratospheric for these cars now?. For example, I’m 53, full clean license, no claims and nothing pending. Car garaged overnight, rural postcode 6k miles pa. Would I be looking at a big bill?.
texaxile said:
I looked at a 19 plate M4C 3 weeks ago, AUC car, it’s still on the forecourt , but at £1k less, so £37.2k. I didn’t run an insurance quote, are insurance costs really getting stratospheric for these cars now?. For example, I’m 53, full clean license, no claims and nothing pending. Car garaged overnight, rural postcode 6k miles pa. Would I be looking at a big bill?.
You should be okay I'm 31 and rural postcode not garaged but I was get m2 quotes of well over 1.2k.
texaxile said:
I looked at a 19 plate M4C 3 weeks ago, AUC car, it’s still on the forecourt , but at £1k less, so £37.2k. I didn’t run an insurance quote, are insurance costs really getting stratospheric for these cars now?. For example, I’m 53, full clean license, no claims and nothing pending. Car garaged overnight, rural postcode 6k miles pa. Would I be looking at a big bill?.
I'm 50, clean licence/no claims etc and I pay £700 for the Dec 2018 none CP M4. So not mental by any means(the Merc we have is a £1000 a year in comparison), but it did go up from £590 the previous year though. Plus I keep reading that the insurance costs are growing on them still. texaxile said:
I looked at a 19 plate M4C 3 weeks ago, AUC car, it’s still on the forecourt , but at £1k less, so £37.2k. I didn’t run an insurance quote, are insurance costs really getting stratospheric for these cars now?. For example, I’m 53, full clean license, no claims and nothing pending. Car garaged overnight, rural postcode 6k miles pa. Would I be looking at a big bill?.
I recently changed from a 240i to an F82 M4, I went from about £550 per year to £1500 and believe me I shopped around. I’m 42 with full NCD, I live in a decent area but it seems car thieves like to come here to steal RangeRovers so everyone takes a hit on premiums.
I’m hoping next year I can contact a specialist broker and show I’ve had it 12 months without an issue and things may improve but I’m probably going to get another spanking
cerb4.5lee said:
I'm 50, clean licence/no claims etc and I pay £700 for the Dec 2018 none CP M4. So not mental by any means(the Merc we have is a £1000 a year in comparison), but it did go up from £590 the previous year though. Plus I keep reading that the insurance costs are growing on them still.
That’s not too shabby tbh. I just also checked the auc website, the M4 is now down to 36.5k inc a £700 dealer deposit. I’m paying £340 on a 20 year old Impreza atm…I may give my insurance a call to get a better idea this coming week.Think yourself lucky, those with G82s went from £65k trade in to £47k in about 12 weeks.
That's the thing though, BMW approved G82's at sub £50k, with 30k miles, is going to have an effect on the F82.
These were still £70k not that long ago.
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202310032...
But then, with discounts on new ones now and 4.9% apr on the finance as well, a 2 year old one needs to be that price to be as cheap as new, if on the "munflies".
But does seem a great buy for those with cash or who can get a decent rate with their bank.
That's the thing though, BMW approved G82's at sub £50k, with 30k miles, is going to have an effect on the F82.
These were still £70k not that long ago.
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202310032...
But then, with discounts on new ones now and 4.9% apr on the finance as well, a 2 year old one needs to be that price to be as cheap as new, if on the "munflies".
But does seem a great buy for those with cash or who can get a decent rate with their bank.
Michael-lxb9y said:
I sold a 2019 M2C around 3/4 months ago for 39.5k, I think if I still had it I would be looking at 34k today, the prices are crazy, brilliant time to buy if you can afford the insurance, very bad time to have money tied up in a depreciating car though!
Not sure if I agree with that. Prices are just going back to normal, pre Covid, pre £800bn in free money thrown at UK citizens.
Does it matter if the asset is depreciating? They were always going to, it only matters if you have over leveraged your life and you need to sell. Then it matters.
But people mustn't panic, don't look at the price, enjoy the car.
Worse case scenario is it is worth less after 3 years, refinance it and keep it another 3 years.
Hardly the end of the world.
I get there will be a few who have too too much debt and they need to get rid, they may get hit, but many panic and try and get out at the worst time. There are plenty of people out there who are cash buyers, and that will stop an absolute free fall in values, but let's be realistic.
The F82 was £56,000 at launch almost 10 years ago. They always lost 50% in the first 3 years if trading in, then another 30% over the next 3 years and another 20% over the next 3 years.
That was normal.
Those who bought an F82 in 2019/20 were always going to get hit hard, old models do, but let's remember the discounts you could get on them at the time, it's not like anyone has not done ok with them financially.
Ed.Neumann said:
Not sure if I agree with that.
Prices are just going back to normal, pre Covid, pre £800bn in free money thrown at UK citizens.
Does it matter if the asset is depreciating? They were always going to, it only matters if you have over leveraged your life and you need to sell. Then it matters.
But people mustn't panic, don't look at the price, enjoy the car.
Worse case scenario is it is worth less after 3 years, refinance it and keep it another 3 years.
Hardly the end of the world.
I get there will be a few who have too too much debt and they need to get rid, they may get hit, but many panic and try and get out at the worst time. There are plenty of people out there who are cash buyers, and that will stop an absolute free fall in values, but let's be realistic.
The F82 was £56,000 at launch almost 10 years ago. They always lost 50% in the first 3 years if trading in, then another 30% over the next 3 years and another 20% over the next 3 years.
That was normal.
Those who bought an F82 in 2019/20 were always going to get hit hard, old models do, but let's remember the discounts you could get on them at the time, it's not like anyone has not done ok with them financially.
I respectfully disagree with you, prices are not "just" going back to normal, prices have been steadily dropping but the last 6 months prices specifically have dropped significantly. You just need to look at the forums and Facebook groups for the hikes in insurance, repair costs, thefts etc, insurance up on average 50% in recent months also. People simply cannot afford to have large sums tied up in expensive cars with expensive insurance, fuel, running costs, so many people are selling up Prices are just going back to normal, pre Covid, pre £800bn in free money thrown at UK citizens.
Does it matter if the asset is depreciating? They were always going to, it only matters if you have over leveraged your life and you need to sell. Then it matters.
But people mustn't panic, don't look at the price, enjoy the car.
Worse case scenario is it is worth less after 3 years, refinance it and keep it another 3 years.
Hardly the end of the world.
I get there will be a few who have too too much debt and they need to get rid, they may get hit, but many panic and try and get out at the worst time. There are plenty of people out there who are cash buyers, and that will stop an absolute free fall in values, but let's be realistic.
The F82 was £56,000 at launch almost 10 years ago. They always lost 50% in the first 3 years if trading in, then another 30% over the next 3 years and another 20% over the next 3 years.
That was normal.
Those who bought an F82 in 2019/20 were always going to get hit hard, old models do, but let's remember the discounts you could get on them at the time, it's not like anyone has not done ok with them financially.
yes of course it matters if an asset is depreciating at a significant rate, especially if you have significant money invested in it! a 20% loss on a 2019 car for example in a matter of 6 months is huge?
I do not know many people who can just buy a car and not care about its price, depreciation with the mindset of they dont care , I can only afford one decent car so to me and many others its very important the value, resale value and how much equity might be lost/tied up in it. I wish I was in a position where it was not an issue
I was trying to be positive. 
I also meant I don't think it is a great time to buy now, still plenty to fall.
I tried to write our a more concise answer but it comes across as dismissive and I really don't want it to be.
So I apologise for the long winded answer, but hopefully it explains what I meant better.
But, we are now getting back to a place where we used to be, where not everyone could afford to buy a new or nearly new M car. I couldn't!
The reality was, when the E46 M3 came out, people were paying the same as an average mortgage on that car each month.
We have now had a decade where cheap finance has skewed things badly as finance has become seriously cheap, while new car prices have only gone up a smidge compared to wages and house prices.
Then 2020 happened.
It is playing catch up, and it will happen fast and catch out many.
What I was saying regarding riding it out was it only becomes a real issue if your whole world is on finance and you need to sell.
You knew that you would lose 50% over 3 years on that car.
You also knew that finance was going to cost you 8-10% apr.
Back in 2001 the big question was did you want to spend £45k on a new E46 M3?
To put that into perspective, you could buy a 2-3 terraced house in the nice part of most UK cities for the same sort of price.
Those same houses are £200-300k today.
The average wage was £17,800.
I remember getting a finance quote for the E46 coupe with a couple of options, it was £44k from memory, finance was 9% or 10% apr, base rate was 5.75% at the time, and with 50% balloon it was over £700 a month.
My wife just laughed at me when I tried to talk her into allowing me to buy it.
That was a mortgage on a 3 bed detached house at the time for 90% of the UK.
It was a massive commitment. You really had to have to think about it and not many could afford it at the time.
Just look at sales figures for E46 compared to F80/82 etc.
You could get into an F82 for £499 a month with £5k down on some of the deals.
This was in 2017 when the average wage was now £28k.
Cheap finance and massive discounts, hidden in finance deals, made and M3 three times cheaper in real terms than they had been in previous years and we all bought them.
Why wouldn't we?
But it was never going to last. It just couldn't. ???
Once the cheap money went, prices were going to do what they always did. ?
The problem is, many can’t remember what they always did pre covid. ??
My mate bought a 2 year old, maybe 3 actually, M3 comp for £36k before lockdown, he sold it for £48k 2 years later. ?(Might have been bought for £38k and sold for £46k, but anyway.)
He was expecting it to lose another £12k over that period, not go up £12k. ?
That is a £24k correction just waiting to happen. ??
Well, it is now happening and it is going to happen fast because, as you say, people’s mortgages are also up £1000 a month, insurance is double, warranty and service costs are up, food shop is double what it was in 2019, and rather than using the last decade to get the mortgage paid off none of us did, we all bought more cars, gadgets, holidays and increased our debt. We forgot what normality was.
My point was, if someone can afford the monthly payments stick with it as long as possible, it might look scary now, and it will only get worse over the next few months, but, it will slow down, these cars will find a level, it might take another 3-4 years, but it won’t look quite as bad. ?
I doubt anyone bought an F80 M3 in 2019 and paid much more than £60k for it, and expected it to be worth any more than £30k 4 years later? ?
I haven't looked, but they are now nearly 5 years old? Are they any less than £30k?
Those who bought it last year for £45k or more, well yeah, they are going to feel the pain, but only if they where buying it thinking they would get out after a year or so, so many were saying it was madness and it was a bubble that could do nothing but burst. They were warned.
The real issue is going forward, everyone has ramped prices up massively. £60k cars are now £85k.
Combine that with interest rates getting back to normal and well, we all know.
BMW will shag the used car market to sell new metal, already discounts out there of 20% on some cars, combine that with subsidised finance rates at 4.9% and who is going to buy a 3 or 4 year old used car for the same monthlies?
But it will correct it self. most will be on fairly decent finance rates still, so just ride it out and enjoy the car.
If people are over leveraged sell the car now and buy a cheap run around, wait for them to drop another £10k and buy another one with a cheap bank loan at 6% and in 4 years you will own it outright and be finance free.
It might not be the latest car, but it will be yours and you will save your self £10,000 a year on a toy.
As I said, people need to stay positive and not get themselves into a panic. Enjoy what they have.
I also meant I don't think it is a great time to buy now, still plenty to fall.
I tried to write our a more concise answer but it comes across as dismissive and I really don't want it to be.
So I apologise for the long winded answer, but hopefully it explains what I meant better.
Michael-lxb9y said:
I do not know many people who can just buy a car and not care about its price, depreciation with the mindset of they dont care , I can only afford one decent car so to me and many others its very important the value, resale value and how much equity might be lost/tied up in it. I wish I was in a position where it was not an issue
100% agree. I'm the same. But, we are now getting back to a place where we used to be, where not everyone could afford to buy a new or nearly new M car. I couldn't!
The reality was, when the E46 M3 came out, people were paying the same as an average mortgage on that car each month.
We have now had a decade where cheap finance has skewed things badly as finance has become seriously cheap, while new car prices have only gone up a smidge compared to wages and house prices.
Then 2020 happened.
Michael-lxb9y said:
yes of course it matters if an asset is depreciating at a significant rate, especially if you have significant money invested in it! a 20% loss on a 2019 car for example in a matter of 6 months is huge?
Well it is huge because people are no longer used to it and it hasn't depreciated properly over the last 4 years. So it is now a shock. It is playing catch up, and it will happen fast and catch out many.
What I was saying regarding riding it out was it only becomes a real issue if your whole world is on finance and you need to sell.
Michael-lxb9y said:
I respectfully disagree with you, prices are not "just" going back to normal, prices have been steadily dropping but the last 6 months prices specifically have dropped significantly. You just need to look at the forums and Facebook groups for the hikes in insurance, repair costs, thefts etc, insurance up on average 50% in recent months also. People simply cannot afford to have large sums tied up in expensive cars with expensive insurance, fuel, running costs, so many people are selling up
The problem is, up until 2010, people were more of the mindset that they would only pay what they could afford to lose. You knew that you would lose 50% over 3 years on that car.
You also knew that finance was going to cost you 8-10% apr.
Back in 2001 the big question was did you want to spend £45k on a new E46 M3?
To put that into perspective, you could buy a 2-3 terraced house in the nice part of most UK cities for the same sort of price.
Those same houses are £200-300k today.
The average wage was £17,800.
I remember getting a finance quote for the E46 coupe with a couple of options, it was £44k from memory, finance was 9% or 10% apr, base rate was 5.75% at the time, and with 50% balloon it was over £700 a month.
My wife just laughed at me when I tried to talk her into allowing me to buy it.
That was a mortgage on a 3 bed detached house at the time for 90% of the UK.
It was a massive commitment. You really had to have to think about it and not many could afford it at the time.
Just look at sales figures for E46 compared to F80/82 etc.
You could get into an F82 for £499 a month with £5k down on some of the deals.
This was in 2017 when the average wage was now £28k.
Cheap finance and massive discounts, hidden in finance deals, made and M3 three times cheaper in real terms than they had been in previous years and we all bought them.
Why wouldn't we?
But it was never going to last. It just couldn't. ???
Once the cheap money went, prices were going to do what they always did. ?
The problem is, many can’t remember what they always did pre covid. ??
My mate bought a 2 year old, maybe 3 actually, M3 comp for £36k before lockdown, he sold it for £48k 2 years later. ?(Might have been bought for £38k and sold for £46k, but anyway.)
He was expecting it to lose another £12k over that period, not go up £12k. ?
That is a £24k correction just waiting to happen. ??
Well, it is now happening and it is going to happen fast because, as you say, people’s mortgages are also up £1000 a month, insurance is double, warranty and service costs are up, food shop is double what it was in 2019, and rather than using the last decade to get the mortgage paid off none of us did, we all bought more cars, gadgets, holidays and increased our debt. We forgot what normality was.
My point was, if someone can afford the monthly payments stick with it as long as possible, it might look scary now, and it will only get worse over the next few months, but, it will slow down, these cars will find a level, it might take another 3-4 years, but it won’t look quite as bad. ?
I doubt anyone bought an F80 M3 in 2019 and paid much more than £60k for it, and expected it to be worth any more than £30k 4 years later? ?
I haven't looked, but they are now nearly 5 years old? Are they any less than £30k?
Those who bought it last year for £45k or more, well yeah, they are going to feel the pain, but only if they where buying it thinking they would get out after a year or so, so many were saying it was madness and it was a bubble that could do nothing but burst. They were warned.
The real issue is going forward, everyone has ramped prices up massively. £60k cars are now £85k.
Combine that with interest rates getting back to normal and well, we all know.
BMW will shag the used car market to sell new metal, already discounts out there of 20% on some cars, combine that with subsidised finance rates at 4.9% and who is going to buy a 3 or 4 year old used car for the same monthlies?
But it will correct it self. most will be on fairly decent finance rates still, so just ride it out and enjoy the car.
If people are over leveraged sell the car now and buy a cheap run around, wait for them to drop another £10k and buy another one with a cheap bank loan at 6% and in 4 years you will own it outright and be finance free.
It might not be the latest car, but it will be yours and you will save your self £10,000 a year on a toy.
As I said, people need to stay positive and not get themselves into a panic. Enjoy what they have.
Edited by Ed.Neumann on Sunday 19th November 23:48
Absolutely.
It is only going to be the ones who panic and suddenly want to sell that will get hit hard.
I don't get it when people buy a car to keep for 4 or 5 years or longer and because they go down in price suddenly after 6 or 12 months suddenly decide they want to sell it. It makes no sense.
Probably even out over the next 5 years so no different to what you expected.
It is only going to be the ones who panic and suddenly want to sell that will get hit hard.
I don't get it when people buy a car to keep for 4 or 5 years or longer and because they go down in price suddenly after 6 or 12 months suddenly decide they want to sell it. It makes no sense.
Probably even out over the next 5 years so no different to what you expected.
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