1M price desirability etc
Discussion
Have been tracking 1Ms on Autotrader for a while and two things have struck me:
1. Very low turnover - cars seem to be on sale for ages - are they a very hard sell?
2. Enormous spread of prices - although the sample size is small (less than 20 cars) there is a big spread of prices - although there seems to be a fairly strong correlation with mileage it is far from perfect.
I realise these have quite a following but are they actually in demand? Obviously the current situation is a bit out of the ordinary but I keep reading about how car sales especially performance cars, are through the roof so I’m intrigued by how the 1M is doing.
On the second point what is driving the huge spread as they don’t seem materially different?
1. Very low turnover - cars seem to be on sale for ages - are they a very hard sell?
2. Enormous spread of prices - although the sample size is small (less than 20 cars) there is a big spread of prices - although there seems to be a fairly strong correlation with mileage it is far from perfect.
I realise these have quite a following but are they actually in demand? Obviously the current situation is a bit out of the ordinary but I keep reading about how car sales especially performance cars, are through the roof so I’m intrigued by how the 1M is doing.
On the second point what is driving the huge spread as they don’t seem materially different?
I had one for 2 years from September 2017 to September 2019. When I bought in 2017 they were still commanding strong money and sold pretty quickly. That has changed and probably for about the last year to 18 months they do sit about for a while. There has always been a case of a number of dealers having a few up for crazy money trying to cash in on the 'cult' status of a 1M but im not convinced they ever sell at the +£50k market.
It's not the easiest car in the world to daily, heavy steering, very firm suspension and can be quite hard work when using in 1st gear in traffic. They are superb when out on country roads etc and I think it makes more sense as a special occasion car as well which limits overall appeal and demand. Also at this price point, very few people will buy privately which means the private sales sit around for a long time.
Personally, if I was in the market for one again, I would go to the cheaper end of the mark (you can get good examples in the high £30k's) with a bit more mileage on it and you can enjoy without worrying about collector mileage etc and just have fun with it. At that price point there is not much that competes with it for a car that you are very unlikely to see 2 of at the same time and is generally loved my motoring enthusiasts. It is also a pretty cheap car to run and I have not heard about much in the way of reliability issues.
It's not the easiest car in the world to daily, heavy steering, very firm suspension and can be quite hard work when using in 1st gear in traffic. They are superb when out on country roads etc and I think it makes more sense as a special occasion car as well which limits overall appeal and demand. Also at this price point, very few people will buy privately which means the private sales sit around for a long time.
Personally, if I was in the market for one again, I would go to the cheaper end of the mark (you can get good examples in the high £30k's) with a bit more mileage on it and you can enjoy without worrying about collector mileage etc and just have fun with it. At that price point there is not much that competes with it for a car that you are very unlikely to see 2 of at the same time and is generally loved my motoring enthusiasts. It is also a pretty cheap car to run and I have not heard about much in the way of reliability issues.
Thanks. Yes it would be a special occasions car for me for sure. Would definitely be looking at the lower end of the price range.
Right now there’s little point in buying anything as I’m not doing any driving anyway ... think I have only filled the car up once this year! ... so it’s all idle looking, but nice to dream.
Right now there’s little point in buying anything as I’m not doing any driving anyway ... think I have only filled the car up once this year! ... so it’s all idle looking, but nice to dream.
I've been semi in the market for one for the last 12 months so have been enquiring and watching the market pretty closely.
Recently sold my MINI GP2 so 'pulled the trigger' on a 1M in June. So far, absolutely stonking car, but agree they're best left for special occasions.
As for the cars that seem to be for sale for ages, my experience was that there's typically two kinds of seller. Those that know and understand the cars and what buyers are looking for, and those who don't (and are often selling on consignment). The latter seem to be the cars that are hanging around because a real buyer gives up on them.
With there only being a single model year, three colours and relatively few options, a serious buyer is focusing on very small details (like whether the seats are electric adjustment or manual.. it matters) and the crap sellers stand out a mile - especially those selling on consignment because they've no idea how to answer once you ask something beyond what colour it is.
You can spot these ones because they talk about AMAZING SPEC etc etc, or have a cut & paste of the car's build heritage ripped from a forum. I walked away from all these in the end and bought from the other type: A passionate seller who knew exactly what he had and had every answer to every small question I had.
As for prices... my view was that it was best to thoroughly do my research, be absolutely crystal clear what I was looking for, and what kind of buyer I wanted to buy from, then pay what it took to get that car when it came available. But, appreciate that doesn't work for everyone.
EDIT: Missed your point about the variety in the prices. Some of it is down to red flags (like non-BMW service history, irreversible mods, and even a cat S currently for sale), some of it is down to desirable mods (performance seats, Akrapovic exhaust etc) and some of it is down to people who just always keep their car for sale for a very high price because they don't really want to sell it but if some mug will throw them fifty grand then they'll take it!
Recently sold my MINI GP2 so 'pulled the trigger' on a 1M in June. So far, absolutely stonking car, but agree they're best left for special occasions.
As for the cars that seem to be for sale for ages, my experience was that there's typically two kinds of seller. Those that know and understand the cars and what buyers are looking for, and those who don't (and are often selling on consignment). The latter seem to be the cars that are hanging around because a real buyer gives up on them.
With there only being a single model year, three colours and relatively few options, a serious buyer is focusing on very small details (like whether the seats are electric adjustment or manual.. it matters) and the crap sellers stand out a mile - especially those selling on consignment because they've no idea how to answer once you ask something beyond what colour it is.
You can spot these ones because they talk about AMAZING SPEC etc etc, or have a cut & paste of the car's build heritage ripped from a forum. I walked away from all these in the end and bought from the other type: A passionate seller who knew exactly what he had and had every answer to every small question I had.
As for prices... my view was that it was best to thoroughly do my research, be absolutely crystal clear what I was looking for, and what kind of buyer I wanted to buy from, then pay what it took to get that car when it came available. But, appreciate that doesn't work for everyone.
EDIT: Missed your point about the variety in the prices. Some of it is down to red flags (like non-BMW service history, irreversible mods, and even a cat S currently for sale), some of it is down to desirable mods (performance seats, Akrapovic exhaust etc) and some of it is down to people who just always keep their car for sale for a very high price because they don't really want to sell it but if some mug will throw them fifty grand then they'll take it!
Edited by MDifficult on Wednesday 15th July 16:29
nickfrog said:
Despite the uniqueness of their status and rarity I think their value has been in part eventually affected by M2s which you can buy an excellent example of for £30k AUC.
You might well be right - I definitely considered an M2 and M2C but it was obvious pretty quickly that they’re really very different propositions. The newer cars knock the 1M into a cocked hat on the performance, quality and ‘toys’ front, but the 1M has the rarity, reputation and residuals. The more M2s they sell, the further the disparity between the two. Edited by nickfrog on Wednesday 15th July 19:12
Equally, I think some of the softening may be that they’re going to be 10 years old next year, and that puts them into ‘old’ car territory especially for fourty grand.
For someone like me, that’s exactly what I wanted - but for many others it may put them off unless a 1M is what they really, really, really want. That may mean less buyers, and so slight softening of values.
By every objective measure, the M2 is a similar but far better car for similar money. But the fact you see 5 of them a day and they depreciate like a stone thanks to the PCP deals put me right off.
I think the Valencia orange car which was advertised at pocket rocket sales about a month ago for £29,995 with 35k miles was a good indicator. Ended up on the market.co.uk and sold at auction for £30,500.
In reality that is where the market is, plenty overpriced. As above it’s difficult to believe the m2 and m2 comp won’t have a negative impact. The looks of the 1 have always done it for me more, but the idea of an easily accessible 550~Bhp from the m2 comp is making the proposition more attractive.
In reality that is where the market is, plenty overpriced. As above it’s difficult to believe the m2 and m2 comp won’t have a negative impact. The looks of the 1 have always done it for me more, but the idea of an easily accessible 550~Bhp from the m2 comp is making the proposition more attractive.
By the by now but the pocket rocket car had 49k miles - I watched it for 6 months. That does make a bit of a difference to value.
I personally went for one with a few (40k) miles as I wanted to use it a bit, not leave it in the garage.
Long term, used lightly I would hope the values would hold fairly steady for that sort of car.
In answer to the question there are a handful still for sale when I bought mine in January but there's a decent turnover of good cars.
As a driving prospect though, I've never driven anything like it. So much more involving and fun than modern M cars. You're not going to have more fun in a 550hp modded M2 I don't believe.
I personally went for one with a few (40k) miles as I wanted to use it a bit, not leave it in the garage.
Long term, used lightly I would hope the values would hold fairly steady for that sort of car.
In answer to the question there are a handful still for sale when I bought mine in January but there's a decent turnover of good cars.
As a driving prospect though, I've never driven anything like it. So much more involving and fun than modern M cars. You're not going to have more fun in a 550hp modded M2 I don't believe.
MDifficult said:
By every objective measure, the M2 is a similar but far better car for similar money. But the fact you see 5 of them a day and they depreciate like a stone thanks to the PCP deals put me right off.
I only see one a day most days and it's mine 
. I probably see another one once a month but I live in sleepy Sussex. In fairness it doesn't bother me either way as I tend to buy for me and not worry too much about other people's choices.As for depreciation, you're not wrong. Mine cost the first owner £18k over the first 3 years and 6k miles but I don't think he noticed. I am hoping to halve that in 3 years with 3 times the mileage, which would make it quite a bargain IMO.
There is still something far more special about the 1M as it was the first of the species and its arresting looks simply stand in many people's memory, including mine.
I think they look great so much better than the M2 or M2 CP surely the price of these is only going to go one-way long term? Similar to the e46 CSL maybe?
BAU had one not sure I like the mods https://usedcars.bmw.co.uk/vehicle/202002117211899...
BAU had one not sure I like the mods https://usedcars.bmw.co.uk/vehicle/202002117211899...
Stu-nph26 said:
I think they look great so much better than the M2 or M2 CP surely the price of these is only going to go one-way long term? Similar to the e46 CSL maybe?
BAU had one not sure I like the mods https://usedcars.bmw.co.uk/vehicle/202002117211899...
Maybe, I guess the question is will they all rise or only some, and if some why? E.g. right now low mileage seems to command a premium but if you want a car to drive it seems pointless buying a low miler. And as someone said above there are hardly any options so they aren’t that different.BAU had one not sure I like the mods https://usedcars.bmw.co.uk/vehicle/202002117211899...
Before buying, I spent a bit of time analysing this:
note: a small number of 1Ms are mislabelled by the DVLA as 135is so don't show up on this chart, but it's a small number
From this, a couple of things are clear:
1. The total is shrinking, so they continue to be written off, lost or exported to other RHD markets. That's good for prices.
2. LOTS are being SORNed. That means people are speculating. This is almost certainly the ultra-low mileage / mint / unmodded cars. That's also good for prices as long as they don't all hit the market at once. If they drip out then no problem.
3. The number of regularly used ones is shrinking fast. That means, as M2s (of which there's thousands and thousands) become increasingly prevalent, the 1Ms are going to become an increasingly rare sight. Again, good for prices.
4. At current trends, in 5 years time, there'll be half as many as now on the roads.
Here's my maths:
Of the original 450:
93 (or 21%) are dead, exported or lost
126 (or 28%) are locked away by speculators to re-appear for crazy money in the future, or remain in long-term collections as an asset
231 (or 51%) are in use
Using those stats, mine is an Alpine white car, of which there were 150 of the 450 originally. If only roughly half are in use then that's 75 cars. So mine in effectively 1/75. In 5 years time that's 1/37.
How rare is that? Compared to an M2 it's vanishingly rare - hence thinking it'll be a substantially better hedge against deflation than an M2.
(Okay, maybe I spent a little too much time looking at this - but Man Maths is important businesses when dropping 40-large on a 10 year old 1-series!)
note: a small number of 1Ms are mislabelled by the DVLA as 135is so don't show up on this chart, but it's a small number
From this, a couple of things are clear:
1. The total is shrinking, so they continue to be written off, lost or exported to other RHD markets. That's good for prices.
2. LOTS are being SORNed. That means people are speculating. This is almost certainly the ultra-low mileage / mint / unmodded cars. That's also good for prices as long as they don't all hit the market at once. If they drip out then no problem.
3. The number of regularly used ones is shrinking fast. That means, as M2s (of which there's thousands and thousands) become increasingly prevalent, the 1Ms are going to become an increasingly rare sight. Again, good for prices.
4. At current trends, in 5 years time, there'll be half as many as now on the roads.
Here's my maths:
Of the original 450:
93 (or 21%) are dead, exported or lost
126 (or 28%) are locked away by speculators to re-appear for crazy money in the future, or remain in long-term collections as an asset
231 (or 51%) are in use
Using those stats, mine is an Alpine white car, of which there were 150 of the 450 originally. If only roughly half are in use then that's 75 cars. So mine in effectively 1/75. In 5 years time that's 1/37.
How rare is that? Compared to an M2 it's vanishingly rare - hence thinking it'll be a substantially better hedge against deflation than an M2.
(Okay, maybe I spent a little too much time looking at this - but Man Maths is important businesses when dropping 40-large on a 10 year old 1-series!)
Edited by MDifficult on Thursday 16th July 10:51
MDifficult said:
Using those stats, mine is an Alpine white car, of which there were 150 of the 450 originally. If only roughly half are in use then that's 75 cars. So mine in effectively 1/75. In 5 years time that's 1/37.
How rare is that? Compared to an M2 it's vanishingly rare - hence thinking it'll be a substantially better hedge against deflation than an M2.
(Okay, maybe I spent a little too much time looking at this - but Man Maths is important businesses when dropping 40-large on a 10 year old 1-series!)
Brilliant - thanks for that! I cut most of your post out but left the bit about colour - were the 450 equally split between orange, black and white do you know or is it just chance there were 150 white ones?How rare is that? Compared to an M2 it's vanishingly rare - hence thinking it'll be a substantially better hedge against deflation than an M2.
(Okay, maybe I spent a little too much time looking at this - but Man Maths is important businesses when dropping 40-large on a 10 year old 1-series!)
Edited by MDifficult on Thursday 16th July 10:51
I'm not that bothered by the colour, but in order would prefer: orange > black > white. Certainly not seeing many orange without satnav, which would be my preferred spec.
Stu-nph26 said:
That post is the exact reason I love PistonHeads fair play.
Haha, cheers. I’m always nervous about fully exposing quite how nerdy I get about these things 
tertius said:
Brilliant - thanks for that! I cut most of your post out but left the bit about colour - were the 450 equally split between orange, black and white do you know or is it just chance there were 150 white ones?
I'm not that bothered by the colour, but in order would prefer: orange > black > white. Certainly not seeing many orange without satnav, which would be my preferred spec.
No worries, happy to help! I'm not that bothered by the colour, but in order would prefer: orange > black > white. Certainly not seeing many orange without satnav, which would be my preferred spec.
Rather embarrassingly, I actually know the exact numbers from memory
Alpine white: 150
Black sapphire: 132
Valencia orange: 168
For what it’s worth, I wouldn’t be too precious about Sat Nav or not. The CIC iDrive is actually pretty modern (same one in my F10 M5) and you can hardware upgrade to the NBT-EVO which is still in many BMWs today. It’s quite involved and costs about £1,500 but very doable.
MDifficult said:
Before buying, I spent a bit of time analysing this:
note: a small number of 1Ms are mislabelled by the DVLA as 135is so don't show up on this chart, but it's a small number
From this, a couple of things are clear:
1. The total is shrinking, so they continue to be written off, lost or exported to other RHD markets. That's good for prices.
2. LOTS are being SORNed. That means people are speculating. This is almost certainly the ultra-low mileage / mint / unmodded cars. That's also good for prices as long as they don't all hit the market at once. If they drip out then no problem.
3. The number of regularly used ones is shrinking fast. That means, as M2s (of which there's thousands and thousands) become increasingly prevalent, the 1Ms are going to become an increasingly rare sight. Again, good for prices.
4. At current trends, in 5 years time, there'll be half as many as now on the roads.
Here's my maths:
Of the original 450:
93 (or 21%) are dead, exported or lost
126 (or 28%) are locked away by speculators to re-appear for crazy money in the future, or remain in long-term collections as an asset
231 (or 51%) are in use
Using those stats, mine is an Alpine white car, of which there were 150 of the 450 originally. If only roughly half are in use then that's 75 cars. So mine in effectively 1/75. In 5 years time that's 1/37.
How rare is that? Compared to an M2 it's vanishingly rare - hence thinking it'll be a substantially better hedge against deflation than an M2.
(Okay, maybe I spent a little too much time looking at this - but Man Maths is important businesses when dropping 40-large on a 10 year old 1-series!)
Wow, I thought I researched cars well before purchase!note: a small number of 1Ms are mislabelled by the DVLA as 135is so don't show up on this chart, but it's a small number
From this, a couple of things are clear:
1. The total is shrinking, so they continue to be written off, lost or exported to other RHD markets. That's good for prices.
2. LOTS are being SORNed. That means people are speculating. This is almost certainly the ultra-low mileage / mint / unmodded cars. That's also good for prices as long as they don't all hit the market at once. If they drip out then no problem.
3. The number of regularly used ones is shrinking fast. That means, as M2s (of which there's thousands and thousands) become increasingly prevalent, the 1Ms are going to become an increasingly rare sight. Again, good for prices.
4. At current trends, in 5 years time, there'll be half as many as now on the roads.
Here's my maths:
Of the original 450:
93 (or 21%) are dead, exported or lost
126 (or 28%) are locked away by speculators to re-appear for crazy money in the future, or remain in long-term collections as an asset
231 (or 51%) are in use
Using those stats, mine is an Alpine white car, of which there were 150 of the 450 originally. If only roughly half are in use then that's 75 cars. So mine in effectively 1/75. In 5 years time that's 1/37.
How rare is that? Compared to an M2 it's vanishingly rare - hence thinking it'll be a substantially better hedge against deflation than an M2.
(Okay, maybe I spent a little too much time looking at this - but Man Maths is important businesses when dropping 40-large on a 10 year old 1-series!)
Edited by MDifficult on Thursday 16th July 10:51
In any case, your numbers research combined with the fact it's an absolute riot to drive should make it a decent investment (as cars go).
MDifficult said:
No worries, happy to help!
Rather embarrassingly, I actually know the exact numbers from memory
Alpine white: 150
Black sapphire: 132
Valencia orange: 168
For what it’s worth, I wouldn’t be too precious about Sat Nav or not. The CIC iDrive is actually pretty modern (same one in my F10 M5) and you can hardware upgrade to the NBT-EVO which is still in many BMWs today. It’s quite involved and costs about £1,500 but very doable.
Thanks.Rather embarrassingly, I actually know the exact numbers from memory
Alpine white: 150
Black sapphire: 132
Valencia orange: 168
For what it’s worth, I wouldn’t be too precious about Sat Nav or not. The CIC iDrive is actually pretty modern (same one in my F10 M5) and you can hardware upgrade to the NBT-EVO which is still in many BMWs today. It’s quite involved and costs about £1,500 but very doable.
Re. satnav - I just prefer the look of the dash without it, plus the removal of an additional bit of complexity is welcome. I had the rotating screen satnav in my Z4M and it was both ugly and very expensive to fix when it went wrong. It was also nearly useless happy to believe that the 1M version is not.
bencollins4 said:
Wow, I thought I researched cars well before purchase!
In any case, your numbers research combined with the fact it's an absolute riot to drive should make it a decent investment (as cars go).
Don't forget the fact that they look sick as f*ck too In any case, your numbers research combined with the fact it's an absolute riot to drive should make it a decent investment (as cars go).
tertius said:
Thanks.
Re. satnav - I just prefer the look of the dash without it, plus the removal of an additional bit of complexity is welcome. I had the rotating screen satnav in my Z4M and it was both ugly and very expensive to fix when it went wrong. It was also nearly useless happy to believe that the 1M version is not.
Yeah, it's a weird quirk that BMW didn't bother to change the dash for RHD 1 Series so the sat nav screen appears canted towards the passenger (although it's actually not) and the so are the air vents (which actually are). Re. satnav - I just prefer the look of the dash without it, plus the removal of an additional bit of complexity is welcome. I had the rotating screen satnav in my Z4M and it was both ugly and very expensive to fix when it went wrong. It was also nearly useless happy to believe that the 1M version is not.
Whatever you do though... don't get one with the electric seats. You will bitterly regret it because everyone with a 1M is trying to get the seating position as low as possible and the electric seats have the least adjustment. Manual seats or M Performance seats are the critical, critical option.
30k is tempting https://www.autotrader.co.uk/classified/advert/202...
Stu-nph26 said:
30k is tempting https://www.autotrader.co.uk/classified/advert/202...
I maintained a spreadsheet with all the cars for sale - this one's been around a little while. Here's the notes I made on it:- 70k. 2 Owners. BMW Warranty
- Non standard front grills
- Aftermarket rear canards
- Aftermarket rear diffuser
- Non standard steering wheel
- Manual seats
- Painted callipers (weird)
- Clearly had paint. Too few stonechips for 70k
- No iDrive
- No HK
- Michelin rears and Goodyear fronts
The painted brakes and canards smack of poor choices (but that's personal). The Goodyear fronts were either put on by the dealer, or the previous owner chose price over quality. No owner in their right mind would put Goodyears on a 1M.
The lack of stonechips tells me the dealer gave the front a 'blow over' to get rid. That almost certainly means a s
tty job but redoing it properly is only about £500 on an Alpine White car. Haggle hard at £30k then spend the saving putting it right.
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