New Bike Prices - Will The Bubble Burst ?

[Maximus Decimus Meridius]

Apologies if this has been covered before.

I am browsing and considering a new bike.
Probably a road/ gravel bike.
Nothing too fancy, something like a Cube SL Road Race.
Prices compared to a couple of years ago appear to have jumped by about £300 on bikes now retailing for circa £1200.

I have a trusty steed which continues to serve me well - Cube Ltd Team RX ( a great bike actually) but I fancy a change to 29 inch wheels.

Will the bubble burst post Covid ? Should I put my browsing/ purchasing on hold ?

[Voguely]

With current demand far outstripping supply it is highly unlikely there will be a correction any time soon. In a couple of years who knows, but even then it's unlikely prices will come back down, maybe just stop rising at the rate they have.

[Maximus Decimus Meridius]

Voguely said:

With current demand far outstripping supply it is highly unlikely there will be a correction any time soon. In a couple of years who knows, but even then it's unlikely prices will come back down, maybe just stop rising at the rate they have.

Thanks Voguely. Yes, I understand your point about supply and demand but with the pandemic/ lockdowns more or less over (hopefully), bike factories working again and with most people who wanted a bike now having one I can only see demand diminishing soon.
Is it possible we will see an over-supply of bikes to a market which may no longer be as hungry ?
I suppose the question how long to wait before I pull the trigger.
Good points though. Thank you.

[Harpoon]

I saw a tweet from Mason bikes this week - if you wanted a bike with Ultegra Di2 they are quoting April 2022 for delivery. That's obviously a niche brand, so the global brands may do better. There's a dearth of basic spare components as well. Finding a new cassette in your chosen level / size currently means some searching.

I think it's going to be a while before the supply chain catches up (especially where it comes to adding manufacturing capacity) and I can't imagine prices going down for a while yet.

[Maximus Decimus Meridius]

Thank you Harpoon.
I searched Cube SL Road Race 2019 and found Hargreaves selling these for £850 a couple of years ago.
Most places are now advertising 2021 bikes for £1300 ! Quite a jump !
Spec is the same. No real surprise but I think I'll wait a while.

Edited by Maximus Decimus Meridius on Wednesday 11th August 13:27

[KobayashiMaru86]

I've accepted that I'm not getting a new bike this year. Having to make do with my brothers aluminium Ridley which steers well enough but heavier. Good training though. Been tempted by Orbea and a few have said it's next year as they don't even have frames, let alone group sets.

[TAZ 215]

Component prices are still increasing, freight rates are at ridiculously high levels. Prices won’t be dropping any time soon.

[towser44]

Harpoon said:

I saw a tweet from Mason bikes this week - if you wanted a bike with Ultegra Di2 they are quoting April 2022 for delivery. That's obviously a niche brand, so the global brands may do better. There's a dearth of basic spare components as well. Finding a new cassette in your chosen level / size currently means some searching.

I think it's going to be a while before the supply chain catches up (especially where it comes to adding manufacturing capacity) and I can't imagine prices going down for a while yet.

I looked at a Trek 520 touring bike the other day and the bike shop were quoting November 2022 delivery for that in my size!

[HughG]

towser44 said:

I looked at a Trek 520 touring bike the other day and the bike shop were quoting November 2022 delivery for that in my size!

Yep I have a couple of Trek’s on order, a Checkpoint for my wife that’s due June-22 and an Emonda for me thanks Sept-22. The Emonda was ordered in April so basically an 18month wait.

[Maximus Decimus Meridius]

TAZ 215 said:

Component prices are still increasing, freight rates are at ridiculously high levels. Prices won’t be dropping any time soon.

I think it depends on what you want and where you look.
Recently bought a BTwin cassette £15, Shimano chain £14 and a Shimano 525 rear hub £29.
Those prices seem pre Covid to me (or maybe I was just lucky).

[TAZ 215]

I am talking at a factory level.
You may have been lucky and found retail stock.
Many of my retailers have had to buy huge stocks to supply their workshops.
Those that didn’t are spending hours scanning the web for bits.

[Miocene]

Talking to my LBS, this year will be worse than last year. They're about to place orders for their 2023 model year bikes.

I was going to upgrade my road bike 2 years ago, but decided to postpone. Last year was clearly a write off, so now looking at paying at least £500 more than I would have, and then not being able to try one out for size, so pretty crap. I'm between sizes, as ever, at 5'11, so medium / large.

[JayRidesBikes]

New Trek and Specialized models are pretty much sold out until 2023 so I can't see any price drops happening any time soon.

[Dannbodge]

Yeah they're not going anywhere.

Brexit, lack of components and a market that is growing very quickly and will pay the asking prices.

[lufbramatt]

I'm just waiting for all the bikes that were bought during lockdown and ridden twice to be put up for sale second hand

[louiebaby]

lufbramatt said:

I'm just waiting for all the bikes that were bought during lockdown and ridden twice to be put up for sale second hand

I'm hoping for this too. I'll need a new chain and cassette soon, so this seems like it might be the cheapest way to get them!

[Maximus Decimus Meridius]

louiebaby said:

lufbramatt said:

I'm just waiting for all the bikes that were bought during lockdown and ridden twice to be put up for sale second hand

I'm hoping for this too. I'll need a new chain and cassette soon, so this seems like it might be the cheapest way to get them!

This is a nice thought but the second hand market appears strong.
Supply and demand again bolstered by huge increases in the price of new bikes !

I searched eBay for my current 10 year old MTB to get an idea what it might be worth and asking prices seem £daft.

[lufbramatt]

Exactly, supply and demand. 2nd hand prices will hopefully drop once more bikes start to get sold. Probably when WFH people that used to work in London start losing their London weighting and need to free up some cash....

[Maximus Decimus Meridius]

Halfords seem to have stock.
Great if you fancy a Carrera or an Apollo as a stopgap. Cheap too ! Not many Boardmans though !

[MarcelM6]

I've heard mid 2022 is the earliest we can expect some change. Components (especially Shimano) are the issue, bikes less so. Hearing stories of warehouses of bikes ready to go but can't be shipped due to waiting for 1 or 2 components.

Second hand market may have more supply before, but due to lack of new bikes prices will remain high