Grand National Tips
Discussion
If you're going to back your selection each way, and tbh with the fav My Will at 8/1 you really should, then be careful who you place your bet with!
Some bookies are paying 5 places, some only 4. Also some are offering "best odds guaranteed" so place your bet today to get a price, but if the SP is higher, you get paid at that. Usual ante-post rules don't apply, so if you bet today and the horse is declared a non-runner you get your stake back.
All the details are here http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-... (scroll down to the bottom of the page to see "each way terms"
As an aside, who else is kicking themselves for not having a few quid on Lewis for last Sunday's GP? You could get 125/1 before the race, which with an e/w bet paid just over 30/1
Some bookies are paying 5 places, some only 4. Also some are offering "best odds guaranteed" so place your bet today to get a price, but if the SP is higher, you get paid at that. Usual ante-post rules don't apply, so if you bet today and the horse is declared a non-runner you get your stake back.
All the details are here http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-... (scroll down to the bottom of the page to see "each way terms"
As an aside, who else is kicking themselves for not having a few quid on Lewis for last Sunday's GP? You could get 125/1 before the race, which with an e/w bet paid just over 30/1
Off the top of my head:
Something carrying around 11st or less (this stat may get overturned)
No greys
Course form a postive
Has form at roughly this distance
Has won recently
Theres usually a program on BBC called The Night Before the National which give some more insight into how to wittle down the field. As the gentleman above says, its a lottery. I was away last year but the year before we had 4/5 horses on the bridle rounding the canal turn, pfft.
Expect the McCoy horse to be overbet, maybe worth a lay IMO.
If i remember i'll post my picks up here saturday morning
Good luck everyone
Something carrying around 11st or less (this stat may get overturned)
No greys
Course form a postive
Has form at roughly this distance
Has won recently
Theres usually a program on BBC called The Night Before the National which give some more insight into how to wittle down the field. As the gentleman above says, its a lottery. I was away last year but the year before we had 4/5 horses on the bridle rounding the canal turn, pfft.
Expect the McCoy horse to be overbet, maybe worth a lay IMO.
If i remember i'll post my picks up here saturday morning
Good luck everyone
Forget the National, get on Denman on the Thursday instead.
Paul Nicholls, the trainer, said he wouldn't run again this year after Cheltenham but I happened to be on the same train as one of the owners a while ago and I was, er, listening in on his phone conversations and he said that Denman would run at Aintree and would win.
Sure enough, a few days later it was announced that Denman might run at Aintree and it was confirmed a few days ago.
You won't get much of a price (odds on I'd imagine) but the owner was incredibly bullish.
Paul Nicholls, the trainer, said he wouldn't run again this year after Cheltenham but I happened to be on the same train as one of the owners a while ago and I was, er, listening in on his phone conversations and he said that Denman would run at Aintree and would win.
Sure enough, a few days later it was announced that Denman might run at Aintree and it was confirmed a few days ago.
You won't get much of a price (odds on I'd imagine) but the owner was incredibly bullish.
spidermanUK said:
As an aside, who else is kicking themselves for not having a few quid on Lewis for last Sunday's GP? You could get 125/1 before the race, which with an e/w bet paid just over 30/1
O/T but wouldn't the bookies have paid out on the podium result, therefore an e/w bet on Lewis would have been a loser? Also, technically it would have only have paid around 15-1 because the win part of the bet was definitely a loser. Ok, I'll take my anorak off now 
thegavster said:
A friend of a friend's stance on the race:
A tenner on Rambling Minster then it is..I will buy you a pint if i win...A mate's mate said:
Only one horse since 1983 has carried 11stone or more (Hedgehunter 11-01)
Rambling Minster
Rambling Minster
Edited by thegavster on Friday 3rd April 16:55
s off the Locals. thegavster said:
A friend of a friend's stance on the race:
I was going to get to the bookies to put a fiver each way on those below but took too long finishing my painting. I'm starting this reply just as the race starts, let's see how they get on.A mate's mate said:
Only one horse since 1983 has carried 11stone or more (Hedgehunter 11-01)
In the past twenty years (19 races) 12 winners had already won over 3m 4f (including the last four years) Of the other 7: Amberliegh House won the Beecher Chase at Aintree over 3M 3f Pappilion had been placed twice in the Irish National Mimnehoma had been placed in the Welsh National and ran well in a Chelt Gold Cup Rough Quest had been second in the Cheltenham Gold Cup & carried no weight in the National
So unless the horse has:
Under 11 stone
Won over 3M 4f or solid form in Beecher Chase/ Other Grand Nationals or solid Gold Cup form, then statistically you can eliminate them!!
This leaves:
Butlers Cabin
Parsons Legacy
Golden Flight (needs soft and no British form)
Cornish Set
Rambling Minster
Kilbeggan Blade
Himalayan Trail
Parsons Legacy is ground dependent but as the forecast is for no rain all week means it will be Good or better. They will water of course to take the sting out but I can't see it being any worse than Good-to-Soft and probably somewhere in between that description and Good which would be fine for him but the faster the better. Parsons Legacy passes all the main trends in terms of age, weight, trip, class and jumping prowess. At eleven years of age, he has my required experience and was a staying-on third in the Scottish National over 4m1f so I have no doubts he will get the trip. His weight of 10st 12lbs fits in well with profiles of recent winners and he has been trained purely for this race which is another major positive like most of the other recent winners. One negative factor is that all Grand National winners since Last Suspect have run in the same calendar year but that is offset by the fact he goes exceptionally well when fresh having won first-time-out in four of the last six seasons so this is intentional. He has never fallen in 21 chase starts and his trainer all but won the race with What's Up Boys.
In the past twenty years (19 races) 12 winners had already won over 3m 4f (including the last four years) Of the other 7: Amberliegh House won the Beecher Chase at Aintree over 3M 3f Pappilion had been placed twice in the Irish National Mimnehoma had been placed in the Welsh National and ran well in a Chelt Gold Cup Rough Quest had been second in the Cheltenham Gold Cup & carried no weight in the National
So unless the horse has:
Under 11 stone
Won over 3M 4f or solid form in Beecher Chase/ Other Grand Nationals or solid Gold Cup form, then statistically you can eliminate them!!
This leaves:
Butlers Cabin
Parsons Legacy
Golden Flight (needs soft and no British form)
Cornish Set
Rambling Minster
Kilbeggan Blade
Himalayan Trail
Parsons Legacy is ground dependent but as the forecast is for no rain all week means it will be Good or better. They will water of course to take the sting out but I can't see it being any worse than Good-to-Soft and probably somewhere in between that description and Good which would be fine for him but the faster the better. Parsons Legacy passes all the main trends in terms of age, weight, trip, class and jumping prowess. At eleven years of age, he has my required experience and was a staying-on third in the Scottish National over 4m1f so I have no doubts he will get the trip. His weight of 10st 12lbs fits in well with profiles of recent winners and he has been trained purely for this race which is another major positive like most of the other recent winners. One negative factor is that all Grand National winners since Last Suspect have run in the same calendar year but that is offset by the fact he goes exceptionally well when fresh having won first-time-out in four of the last six seasons so this is intentional. He has never fallen in 21 chase starts and his trainer all but won the race with What's Up Boys.
Butlers Cabin
Parsons Legacy
Golden Flight (needs soft and no British form)
Cornish Set
Rambling Minster
Kilbeggan Blade
Himalayan Trail
the results are
Mon Mome comes from nowhere to win by miles! Comply or Die second, My Will third, State of Play fourth.
I'm kinda glad that my painting took the time it did, I am however, a little miffed that the rest of the house will also have to be painted as it looks so tired compared to the stuff I've just done.
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