Are Elises over-priced ? Comment ....
Discussion
With the new 'civilised Elise' now available, new S3 around the horizon, zero percent finance available on VX220, large supply of used Elises, I think Elises are due for a price correction ... downwards.
Entry level Elises should soon be in £9-10k region, and S2s should be had for £15k. I think we will see this by end of year.
What do youn guys & gals think ?
Entry level Elises should soon be in £9-10k region, and S2s should be had for £15k. I think we will see this by end of year.
What do youn guys & gals think ?
I dont think so.
VX has always been cheap and at 0% - still very few people buy them (probably 20:1 ratio of Elise:VX sold)
Large supply used - well they are not in exactly Ford Focus league yet...theres only around 10000 S1's been made and 3000 S2's plus a few Exiges/340Rs ...now bearing in mind thats the total for UK, Europe, Aus, Japan, HK, Taiwan etc thats not a great deal on our roads.
Depreciation on the S1 and S2 now is still excellent in comparison to a mainstream car and on par with Porsche Boxsters/Merc SLKs etc with around 60-70% retained value after 3 years...cant see that changing myself - theres always a demand for these cars second hand
VX has always been cheap and at 0% - still very few people buy them (probably 20:1 ratio of Elise:VX sold)
Large supply used - well they are not in exactly Ford Focus league yet...theres only around 10000 S1's been made and 3000 S2's plus a few Exiges/340Rs ...now bearing in mind thats the total for UK, Europe, Aus, Japan, HK, Taiwan etc thats not a great deal on our roads.
Depreciation on the S1 and S2 now is still excellent in comparison to a mainstream car and on par with Porsche Boxsters/Merc SLKs etc with around 60-70% retained value after 3 years...cant see that changing myself - theres always a demand for these cars second hand
I agree VXs should be cheaper than S2s. However, they should be more than S1s, they are a better car and really its just a badge thang. Ask yourself what would MOST people rather have ... a newish, low miles, current shape VX220 or a old, higher miles S1. And take into account that VX have more extras ... ABS, airbags etc. VX220 Turbos are shifting in good numbers, but I hear VX200 are selling new £2000 off list with zero percent finance .... that is really a very very good deal and MUST have knock on effect on residuals on both VXs and Elises.
Large supply ... just do a search in Autotrader, I know its not Ford Focus, but there are plently to choose from. Remember to take into account that it is a specialist car and the number of buyers are also much less than a Focus. Your grandpa is unlikely to buy one .... hence supply/demand thang again which means prices should be competitive and pushing down.
Depreciation has been very good, in fact too good. Boxters prices are starting to crack ... and thus this leads me to the conclusion so must Elises.
Discuss .....
Large supply ... just do a search in Autotrader, I know its not Ford Focus, but there are plently to choose from. Remember to take into account that it is a specialist car and the number of buyers are also much less than a Focus. Your grandpa is unlikely to buy one .... hence supply/demand thang again which means prices should be competitive and pushing down.
Depreciation has been very good, in fact too good. Boxters prices are starting to crack ... and thus this leads me to the conclusion so must Elises.
Discuss .....
bogie said:
I dont think so.
VX has always been cheap and at 0% - still very few people buy them (probably 20:1 ratio of Elise:VX sold)
Large supply used - well they are not in exactly Ford Focus league yet...theres only around 10000 S1's been made and 3000 S2's plus a few Exiges/340Rs ...now bearing in mind thats the total for UK, Europe, Aus, Japan, HK, Taiwan etc thats not a great deal on our roads.
Depreciation on the S1 and S2 now is still excellent in comparison to a mainstream car and on par with Porsche Boxsters/Merc SLKs etc with around 60-70% retained value after 3 years...cant see that changing myself - theres always a demand for these cars second hand
ShakMan said:
I agree VXs should be cheaper than S2s. However, they should be more than S1s, they are a better car and really its just a badge thang. Ask yourself what would MOST people rather have ... a newish, low miles, current shape VX220 or a old, higher miles S1. And take into account that VX have more extras ... ABS, airbags etc. VX220 Turbos are shifting in good numbers, but I hear VX200 are selling new £2000 off list with zero percent finance .... that is really a very very good deal and MUST have knock on effect on residuals on both VXs and Elises.
Most people still think an S1 Elise is somekind of supercar by the looks on their faces when you drive by - a VX does'nt do it anywhere near as well as far as I've seen. Even though it's badge snobbery people are going to be a lot more interested when you offer them a ride in your Lotus rather than your Vauxhall.
People think A3's are cooler than Golfs which are cooler than Skoda Octavias/Seat Leon's etc. Its badge snobbery and its what keeps the residuals so high on Audis.
Mk1 Elise's get crashed every week unfortunately and more get trashed through being owned by numbskies therefore each week there are less and less available worth buying. I've seen some real nails out there esp from non specialist dealers.
So No I don't think they should be cheaper - unless of course I was trying to buy one and then I'd be asking for them to be about £500.
alunr said:In my experience, you'd be wrong there - there's loads of Elises in my home town, and as a result no-one gives them a second glance. Every bugger looks at the VX though, as for the most part they've no idea what it is! They do tend to be disappointed when they find out it's a Vauxhall though.
Most people still think an S1 Elise is somekind of supercar by the looks on their faces when you drive by - a VX does'nt do it anywhere near as well as far as I've seen.
alunr said:That, however, is entirely true!
Even though it's badge snobbery people are going to be a lot more interested when you offer them a ride in your Lotus rather than your Vauxhall.
Obviously I'm biased, but the VX should be worth 2-3k less than the same age S2 Elise, and slightly less than the same age S1 Elise. Sadly, it's below this level, but you can't have everything - I wouldn't have wanted to buy a new VX at 25k a couple of years ago! 0% finance deals on VX's ended a few months ago AFAIK, although the large discounts on pre-built ones are still knocking around. Only about 20 of these cars left though.
Dan (VX owner - sorry!
)ShakMan said:
I agree VXs should be cheaper than S2s. However, they should be more than S1s, they are a better car and really its just a badge thang. Ask yourself what would MOST people rather have ... a newish, low miles, current shape VX220 or a old, higher miles S1.
If you're in the market for a small two seat sports car with pin sharp handling and high smiles per mile I think most would go for an S1 Elise over the VX. It's much better looking and carries more kudos. Trust you have driven an S1 and VX back to back to justify your statement?
ShakMan said:
And take into account that VX have more extras ... ABS, airbags etc. VX220 Turbos are shifting in good numbers, but I hear VX200 are selling new £2000 off list with zero percent finance .... that is really a very very good deal and MUST have knock on effect on residuals on both VXs and Elises.
They're knocking off 2 grand because it's not selling!
ShakMan said:
Large supply ... just do a search in Autotrader, I know its not Ford Focus, but there are plently to choose from. Remember to take into account that it is a specialist car and the number of buyers are also much less than a Focus. Your grandpa is unlikely to buy one .... hence supply/demand thang again which means prices should be competitive and pushing down.
160ish S1s for sale in the whole UK is not a large supply. Bear in mind that some will be nails so the supply of good condition cars is reduced further.
Do I take it you're in the market for an Elise and surprised at the prices?
Yes, I have driven both, back to back, on the road and the track. The S1 is at best the same as a VX220, but definately no better. As to looks, I have to agree that VX220s certainly seem to turn more looks than S1s which are now common sights on our roads.
Yes, should have mentioned, I am in the market ... but reconsidering having looked at prices and seen what else you could buy for the money, current prices dont seem to me to be justifiable. I started this thread to see if others agreed with me ... obviously was expecting a backlash by biased owners
My original question remains ... is the bubble about to pop. Rational says yes in my honest opinion.
>> Edited by ShakMan on Wednesday 23 July 15:25
Yes, should have mentioned, I am in the market ... but reconsidering having looked at prices and seen what else you could buy for the money, current prices dont seem to me to be justifiable. I started this thread to see if others agreed with me ... obviously was expecting a backlash by biased owners
My original question remains ... is the bubble about to pop. Rational says yes in my honest opinion.
>> Edited by ShakMan on Wednesday 23 July 15:25
ShakMan said:I was in your position a couple of months ago. Personally, I'd be surprised if the bubble bursts in the next few months. The S1 Elise is seen as something of a 'future classic', and so I reckon it'll hold it's value quite well. Will probably settle around the 10k mark and not shift from there for a few years. The S2 (for my money) is a more contemporary design, and doesn't have the same 'classic' lines as the S1. I'd expect prices of these to drop a little once the S3 is out (particularly if there's a facelift). This will have a knock on effect on the S1, but neither will fall in price drastically. My VX will continue to loose money hand over fist, but will probably settle around the 10k mark, or just under for the next few years.
My original question remains ... is the bubble about to pop. Rational says yes in my honest opinion.
All of this is based on me checking out Elise/VX prices for a good year or so before buying, and looking at current prices for the 90's Elan, but basically I'm guessing!
Dan
For what it's worth when I was shopping for one, I thought the prices were high - don't regret it for a second.
The looks are a matter of opinion and it's been done to death on here already. I'm not a fan of the VX - nor of the S2 compared to the S1 for that matter. I can't think of anything in the same price bracket I'd rather see on my drive.
I haven't driven a VX so can't comment - I've driven a Cavalier tho
The prices are determined by market forces - as long as people will pay what some see as a premium for an Elise over a VX then the prices will hold up. Despite whatever Parker's guide says, sellers will see an equivalent car at a certain price and follow suit.
The looks are a matter of opinion and it's been done to death on here already. I'm not a fan of the VX - nor of the S2 compared to the S1 for that matter. I can't think of anything in the same price bracket I'd rather see on my drive.
I haven't driven a VX so can't comment - I've driven a Cavalier tho
The prices are determined by market forces - as long as people will pay what some see as a premium for an Elise over a VX then the prices will hold up. Despite whatever Parker's guide says, sellers will see an equivalent car at a certain price and follow suit.
OK as the biased owner I must apologise I was only intending to amuse!
However I think the S1 has already seen a price drop - locally there was a lovely S1 135 that went for £12k that 6 months ago would have been £16K.
The S2 – I have not seen any shift in prices and when they come on the market they are quick to sell (ask any dealer – they have real problems finding s/h S2 stock to sell)
I think the VX is in a contiguous market segment to the Elise so may affect some Lotus sales. But with the s/h Elise market still strong and under supplied it will be some time before this effect is seen.
However I think the S1 has already seen a price drop - locally there was a lovely S1 135 that went for £12k that 6 months ago would have been £16K.
The S2 – I have not seen any shift in prices and when they come on the market they are quick to sell (ask any dealer – they have real problems finding s/h S2 stock to sell)
I think the VX is in a contiguous market segment to the Elise so may affect some Lotus sales. But with the s/h Elise market still strong and under supplied it will be some time before this effect is seen.
I cant see the S1 being a collectors classic, with the exception of one or two of the special editions. And even so, collectors cars no longer hold their value anywhere near they used to.
For example, I used to own a Lancia Delta Integrale Evoluzione 2, a limited edition model, one of only 215 built and what was considered a classic car to many. Unlike the Lotus, it had a proper racing heritage (5 world rally championships) and it was a proper homogolation special. I bought it for £25k with low miles. Three years laters, prices suddenly collapsed ... the cause was that similar cars were alot cheaper. You could buy a nearly new Evo 6 for a lot less money or a Suburu WRX, Escort Cossie etc. I sold my car for £13,500. So my point is ... the same thing is due for the Elise. When it happens it will be very quick and sudden. I used to argue the same point ... 'ahh mine is Italian and isn't souless Jap rubbish, drives better, Eddie Irvine and Jean Alesi own one, blah blah' But at the end of the day, okay similar cars didn't have the kudos/badge, didn't look as good but they represented much better value ... so the price of my car HAD to come down. VX220s will do the same to the Elise, as will newer versions of the Elise.
I'm dont pertain to be an expert in car prices, but as a market analyst who looks at price anomalies and arbitrage opportunities, I would recommend Elises as a SELL to my clients.
Now the problem is ... I still want one
Convinced as I am, do I go out and buy one and take the hit or do I wait ... dilemna!
For example, I used to own a Lancia Delta Integrale Evoluzione 2, a limited edition model, one of only 215 built and what was considered a classic car to many. Unlike the Lotus, it had a proper racing heritage (5 world rally championships) and it was a proper homogolation special. I bought it for £25k with low miles. Three years laters, prices suddenly collapsed ... the cause was that similar cars were alot cheaper. You could buy a nearly new Evo 6 for a lot less money or a Suburu WRX, Escort Cossie etc. I sold my car for £13,500. So my point is ... the same thing is due for the Elise. When it happens it will be very quick and sudden. I used to argue the same point ... 'ahh mine is Italian and isn't souless Jap rubbish, drives better, Eddie Irvine and Jean Alesi own one, blah blah' But at the end of the day, okay similar cars didn't have the kudos/badge, didn't look as good but they represented much better value ... so the price of my car HAD to come down. VX220s will do the same to the Elise, as will newer versions of the Elise.
I'm dont pertain to be an expert in car prices, but as a market analyst who looks at price anomalies and arbitrage opportunities, I would recommend Elises as a SELL to my clients.
Now the problem is ... I still want one
Convinced as I am, do I go out and buy one and take the hit or do I wait ... dilemna!
SHAKMAN,
13500/25000 FOR WHAT, A 10 YEAR OLD CAR! (GREAT CAR BY THE WAY)
THATS 54% AFTER 10 YEARS, I THINK YOU'VE ANSWERED YOUR OWN QUESTION.
I WILL NOW ATTEMPT TO PREDICT THE FUTURE:
ELISE PRICES WILL FALL, THEY WILL ALL BE FUTURE CLASSICS, PRICES WILL BOTTOM OUT AT AROUND £10K FOR A DECENT EXAMPLE.
PRICES FOR S1 WILL FALL GRADUALLY OVER NEXT FEW YEARS, S2 WILL TAKE A HIT WHEN S3 IS RELEASED BUT NOT AS MUCH AS YOU'D NORMALLY EXPECT 'COS S3 WILL MOVE UPMARKET.
S1 AND S2 WILL STABILISE AROUND THE SAME PRICE DEPENDANT ON CONDITION AND BUYERS WILL BE ABLE TO CHOOSE WHICH THEY PREFER, WHICH IS A PURELY SUBJECTIVE DECISION SINCE THEY ARE BOTH FABULOUS!
I REALLY DON'T THINK YOU'VE UNDERSTOOD THE MARKET FOR THESE CARS, AND BESIDES THAT REALLY ISN'T THE POINT.
IF YOU WANT ONE, BUY ONE!.....NOW!!.....GO ON THEN...OFF YOU GO....
HAPPY HUNTING, NEIL
13500/25000 FOR WHAT, A 10 YEAR OLD CAR! (GREAT CAR BY THE WAY)
THATS 54% AFTER 10 YEARS, I THINK YOU'VE ANSWERED YOUR OWN QUESTION.
I WILL NOW ATTEMPT TO PREDICT THE FUTURE:
ELISE PRICES WILL FALL, THEY WILL ALL BE FUTURE CLASSICS, PRICES WILL BOTTOM OUT AT AROUND £10K FOR A DECENT EXAMPLE.
PRICES FOR S1 WILL FALL GRADUALLY OVER NEXT FEW YEARS, S2 WILL TAKE A HIT WHEN S3 IS RELEASED BUT NOT AS MUCH AS YOU'D NORMALLY EXPECT 'COS S3 WILL MOVE UPMARKET.
S1 AND S2 WILL STABILISE AROUND THE SAME PRICE DEPENDANT ON CONDITION AND BUYERS WILL BE ABLE TO CHOOSE WHICH THEY PREFER, WHICH IS A PURELY SUBJECTIVE DECISION SINCE THEY ARE BOTH FABULOUS!
I REALLY DON'T THINK YOU'VE UNDERSTOOD THE MARKET FOR THESE CARS, AND BESIDES THAT REALLY ISN'T THE POINT.
IF YOU WANT ONE, BUY ONE!.....NOW!!.....GO ON THEN...OFF YOU GO....
HAPPY HUNTING, NEIL
Interesting, because I've often thought similar when daydreaming about Elises (will have a wait a few years though). A big part of the strong residual value was the high demand and long waiting lists - lots of people wanted one NOW and with limited numbers of used examples, prices stayed high.
Now the situation is rather different, although the cost of a new Elise seems to be creeping up too. I think it'll be more of a slow push downwards though, the early S1s have to make space for the late S1s and S2s.
I think there's also very optimistic advertising - I'd have though a lot of the 13-14k early S1s actually go for a lot less, but the people selling are in "strong residuals" mode until they get little interest and end up selling for about 11.
The VX220, which I thought would plummet in like a stone (rubs hands) is actually doing OK - the cheapest ones I can find are all around 15k, which isn't bad for a 2-year old car that you can get for a little over 20k new now.
Now the situation is rather different, although the cost of a new Elise seems to be creeping up too. I think it'll be more of a slow push downwards though, the early S1s have to make space for the late S1s and S2s.
I think there's also very optimistic advertising - I'd have though a lot of the 13-14k early S1s actually go for a lot less, but the people selling are in "strong residuals" mode until they get little interest and end up selling for about 11.
The VX220, which I thought would plummet in like a stone (rubs hands
) is actually doing OK - the cheapest ones I can find are all around 15k, which isn't bad for a 2-year old car that you can get for a little over 20k new now.VX's are down to £12K now...S2 Elise down to £18K ish
who cares anyway - they are built to be driven...not for investments...I do 25-30K miles a year so any car I buy is worth
all after 3-4 years...at least the Elise (S2) wont rot so I stick a new (Honda) lump in it and keep it as a track toy for another few years
who cares anyway - they are built to be driven...not for investments...I do 25-30K miles a year so any car I buy is worth
all after 3-4 years...at least the Elise (S2) wont rot so I stick a new (Honda) lump in it and keep it as a track toy for another few years Gassing Station | Elise/Exige/Europa/340R | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff