The Official 'How Fast Will House Prices Rise" Thread
Discussion
LeeME3 said:
Some lady from Savilles on R5 this morning was saying 10% fall this year, 15% fall next year, slow recovery and back to 2007 levels by 2012.
But that, of course, is a guess (albeit a better educated one than I could manage).
The futures market indicate around 2016 for a return to 2007 levelsBut that, of course, is a guess (albeit a better educated one than I could manage).
NoelWatson said:
LeeME3 said:
Some lady from Savilles on R5 this morning was saying 10% fall this year, 15% fall next year, slow recovery and back to 2007 levels by 2012.
But that, of course, is a guess (albeit a better educated one than I could manage).
The futures market indicate around 2016 for a return to 2007 levelsBut that, of course, is a guess (albeit a better educated one than I could manage).
NoelWatson said:
LeeME3 said:
Some lady from Savilles on R5 this morning was saying 10% fall this year, 15% fall next year, slow recovery and back to 2007 levels by 2012.
But that, of course, is a guess (albeit a better educated one than I could manage).
The futures market indicate around 2016 for a return to 2007 levelsBut that, of course, is a guess (albeit a better educated one than I could manage).
audidoody said:
Seems only fair - now that the Fed has bailed out the US housing market ...
Given the current state of play I can see the average UK house being *worth* £1,000,000 within 10 years, the problem is by that point a loaf of bread will cost £250 and a tank of petrol £2000, and the average wage will be around £250,000. Britain.......Italy without the nice weather.
The block of flats across the road from me have dropped 62% in ~2yrs.
I'd bet, regardless of housing market shinnanigans, they'll start to rise (and continue to rise) at ~10% per annum for the next 5yrs or so.
Looking at the market as a whole (and my god this must have been said eleventy billion times by now) is pointless, regions / city districts / streets in isolation will obey completely different trends.
I'd bet, regardless of housing market shinnanigans, they'll start to rise (and continue to rise) at ~10% per annum for the next 5yrs or so.
Looking at the market as a whole (and my god this must have been said eleventy billion times by now) is pointless, regions / city districts / streets in isolation will obey completely different trends.
Timmy35 said:
audidoody said:
Seems only fair - now that the Fed has bailed out the US housing market ...
Given the current state of play I can see the average UK house being *worth* £1,000,000 within 10 years, the problem is by that point a loaf of bread will cost £250 and a tank of petrol £2000, and the average wage will be around £250,000. Britain.......Italy without the nice weather.
off_again said:
Timmy35 said:
audidoody said:
Seems only fair - now that the Fed has bailed out the US housing market ...
Given the current state of play I can see the average UK house being *worth* £1,000,000 within 10 years, the problem is by that point a loaf of bread will cost £250 and a tank of petrol £2000, and the average wage will be around £250,000. Britain.......Italy without the nice weather.
IIRC the purchasing power of the £ fell by around 90% between 1970 and 1990.....but this was widely interpreted as a rise in the value of assets rather than a collapse in the value of the currency. Interesting as you say.
Of course politicians prefer to put it in terms of rising prices.....rather than a devaluing currency.
HundredthIdiot said:
NoelWatson said:
LeeME3 said:
Some lady from Savilles on R5 this morning was saying 10% fall this year, 15% fall next year, slow recovery and back to 2007 levels by 2012.
But that, of course, is a guess (albeit a better educated one than I could manage).
The futures market indicate around 2016 for a return to 2007 levelsBut that, of course, is a guess (albeit a better educated one than I could manage).
Just to come back on track a bit - does the Fed guaranteeing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's global liabilities restore stability to the international financial markets thus signalling the beginning of the end of the 'credit crunch'? (seeing as how money doesn't really exist and it's all about confidence).
audidoody said:
Just to come back on track a bit - does the Fed guaranteeing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's global liabilities restore stability to the international financial markets thus signalling the beginning of the end of the 'credit crunch'? (seeing as how money doesn't really exist and it's all about confidence).
No. Timmy35 said:
audidoody said:
Just to come back on track a bit - does the Fed guaranteeing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's global liabilities restore stability to the international financial markets thus signalling the beginning of the end of the 'credit crunch'? (seeing as how money doesn't really exist and it's all about confidence).
No. audidoody said:
Timmy35 said:
audidoody said:
Just to come back on track a bit - does the Fed guaranteeing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's global liabilities restore stability to the international financial markets thus signalling the beginning of the end of the 'credit crunch'? (seeing as how money doesn't really exist and it's all about confidence).
No. 
I think that by this time next year we will have seen the worst of what is going to happen. Honestly.
I don't think that prices are going to bounce back at all as a market. People were silly for the last 3-4 years. Property prices were not so much driven by the normal market forces but by everyone wanting to believe that they had made another £5k on their 3 bed semi last month.
I honestly believe that what we will see is the rationalising of property prices. Your 3 bed semi on a big estate was being valued within spitting distance of the same property with twice the garden in a nice little village a mile away. What i can see happening is that the real market will come back through and the cream will once again rise whilst the dross sits where it falls.
I don't think that prices are going to bounce back at all as a market. People were silly for the last 3-4 years. Property prices were not so much driven by the normal market forces but by everyone wanting to believe that they had made another £5k on their 3 bed semi last month.
I honestly believe that what we will see is the rationalising of property prices. Your 3 bed semi on a big estate was being valued within spitting distance of the same property with twice the garden in a nice little village a mile away. What i can see happening is that the real market will come back through and the cream will once again rise whilst the dross sits where it falls.
NoelWatson said:
rude-boy said:
I think that by this time next year we will have seen the worst of what is going to happen. Honestly.
I guess if the falls continue as they are currently and we get another 25% off, you may not be far wrong.Followed by 5-6 years of stagnation whilst inflation eats away at 'real' prices, that would be about par for the course.
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