Why Labour will definitely win the next election
Discussion
...sad to say!
It's totally obvious to me what Labour's strategy is - and it will work. The Labour strategist have got it right - it's what I'd advise if I were in their shoes. Let me explain what will happen:
TB (and wife) made it clear today that he won't step down imminently. As such, I reckon that about 9 months before the next election TB will step down and Brown will take over. This will mean that the public will be inclined to vote for Labour, on the basis that Brown should be given more time to prove himself. Equally, TB will become Britain's longest serving PM, eclipsing Maggie! Everyone's a winner if you support Labour! Which means at least 7 more years of high-tax, high-spend Government. Don't say I haven't warned you!!
It's totally obvious to me what Labour's strategy is - and it will work. The Labour strategist have got it right - it's what I'd advise if I were in their shoes. Let me explain what will happen:
TB (and wife) made it clear today that he won't step down imminently. As such, I reckon that about 9 months before the next election TB will step down and Brown will take over. This will mean that the public will be inclined to vote for Labour, on the basis that Brown should be given more time to prove himself. Equally, TB will become Britain's longest serving PM, eclipsing Maggie! Everyone's a winner if you support Labour! Which means at least 7 more years of high-tax, high-spend Government. Don't say I haven't warned you!!
I see it differently (really dave?)
Labour appear to be the only significant party at the mo.
The LibDems area bit of a joke and the Cons are going up their own arse like they did in Canada and New Zealand.
[edit]a bit of a joke too far
>> Edited by planetdave on Tuesday 27th September 23:10
Labour appear to be the only significant party at the mo.
The LibDems area bit of a joke and the Cons are going up their own arse like they did in Canada and New Zealand.
[edit]a bit of a joke too far
>> Edited by planetdave on Tuesday 27th September 23:10
Mrs Trackside said:
All the chavs won't want to lose the good deal they're getting at the moment under his Tonyness, so why should they vote for someone else?
Actually, the chavs won't bother to vote, because that means walking 400 yards to the polling station! Which will help Labour because any sensible chav (a contradiction in terms) would vote Libdem to increase their weekly handout!
Unfortunately, it will be a Labour (Brown) landslide!
I see it differently too.
Labour played a very clever hand. They recognised that left wing politics were no longer valued so they re-launched themselves as New Labour taking the middle ground. From there they slowly moved further and further right. This left nowhere for the Conservatives to go because far right politics is not an option anymore.
New Labour = old Conservatives
Labour played a very clever hand. They recognised that left wing politics were no longer valued so they re-launched themselves as New Labour taking the middle ground. From there they slowly moved further and further right. This left nowhere for the Conservatives to go because far right politics is not an option anymore.
New Labour = old Conservatives
tvrbob said:
I see it differently too.
Labour played a very clever hand. They recognised that left wing politics were no longer valued so they re-launched themselves as New Labour taking the middle ground. From there they slowly moved further and further right. This left nowhere for the Conservatives to go because far right politics is not an option anymore.
New Labour = old Conservatives
I can agree that Labour moved to the centre, but to the right given the explosion in public spending?
[quote=srebbe64 Which means at least 7 more years of high-tax, high-spend Government. Don't say I haven't warned you!![/quote]
I agree That is how I think they will work it (though perhaps a bit sooner than 7 months before the election)
On current opinion polls that would indeed give a boost to Labour, though whether that will continue when the economy, of which Gordon Brown is the steward, enters more difficult times and tax will almost certainly have to be raised even further to support his spending plans.
It rather depends on the opposition, or lack of it Labour faces at the next election.
Let us also not forget that the constituency boundaries will have been redrawn by the time of the next election to reflect the 2001 census. So whether Labour will be able to achieve another majority with such a low share of the vote is open to question.
I agree That is how I think they will work it (though perhaps a bit sooner than 7 months before the election)
On current opinion polls that would indeed give a boost to Labour, though whether that will continue when the economy, of which Gordon Brown is the steward, enters more difficult times and tax will almost certainly have to be raised even further to support his spending plans.
It rather depends on the opposition, or lack of it Labour faces at the next election.
Let us also not forget that the constituency boundaries will have been redrawn by the time of the next election to reflect the 2001 census. So whether Labour will be able to achieve another majority with such a low share of the vote is open to question.
Jaglover said:
I see it differently too.
Labour played a very clever hand. They recognised that left wing politics were no longer valued so they re-launched themselves as New Labour taking the middle ground. From there they slowly moved further and further right. This left nowhere for the Conservatives to go because far right politics is not an option anymore.
New Labour = old Conservatives
I can agree that Labour moved to the centre, but to the right given the explosion in public spending?
Amazing that after all these years, you still can't spot it.
They have moved from the left to the centre, but shifted to the right, where it is popular for them to do so, with a majority of voters, ie, have become more authoritarian, assuaging the Daily Mail hysterical readers. Ironic that the Daily Mail should probably be one of the big reasons why Labour has remained in power for so many years.
The Tories, of course, haven't spotted that they have to try to appeal to the majority, rather than consolidating their position on the right of politics. They have become a characateur of themselves. And with todays ruling of handing the leadership vote back to the party members has sunk any hopes of them regaining office.
968 said:
Amazing that after all these years, you still can't spot it.
They have moved from the left to the centre, but shifted to the right, where it is popular for them to do so, with a majority of voters, ie, have become more authoritarian, assuaging the Daily Mail hysterical readers. Ironic that the Daily Mail should probably be one of the big reasons why Labour has remained in power for so many years.
I would view it rather differently that they give a great pretence of being tough on crime/immigration but in reality deliberately achieve little.
With Labour it is all about how they are perceived they fight straw men in order to demonstrate their centre right credentials, whilst the actual results of their time in power are often rather left wing.
Traditionally in The UK, the party that package themselves right of centre, but not extreme right, tends to win. As such, the rhetoric we heard today was "hard on crime", coupled with "opportunity for the poor". Such a marketing package is boringly predictable - reliably efficient and will be succesful.
Agree but I dont see Labour wining by strategy alone. I think they will get in next time (if they do it will be by a whisker) it will be because the other parties lost it.....
Sad to say but since the Conservative party seems to be on self destruct mode and the liberals are just plain potty - leaves no real opposition. Labour win by default!
If the Cons. can get their arse in gear and sort themselves out then great - real politics and real issues. Otherwise Labour keep dictating what the issues are and obviously only the ones they can win on......
The democratic election system relies on at least two well supported and effective political parties. At the moment we barely scrape one, so heaven only knows what the next election will be.....
Sad to say but since the Conservative party seems to be on self destruct mode and the liberals are just plain potty - leaves no real opposition. Labour win by default!
If the Cons. can get their arse in gear and sort themselves out then great - real politics and real issues. Otherwise Labour keep dictating what the issues are and obviously only the ones they can win on......
The democratic election system relies on at least two well supported and effective political parties. At the moment we barely scrape one, so heaven only knows what the next election will be.....
The Labour marketing guys have got it right, unfortunarely. Meanwhile, the Tory marketing guys don't actually exist! Tonight I watched an interview with certain 'Young Connservatives' - cringeworthy, or what! The Labour spin machine will be laughing their socks off tonight! In reality, to get elected policies are not important, track-record is not important and debate is not important. What is important important is 'marketing' - particularly what is seen on TV. Both TB and Brown are excellent speakers, and impressively visually. It's a proven marketing fact that such a package will get votes.
Jaglover said:
I would view it rather differently that they give a great pretence of being tough on crime/immigration but in reality deliberately achieve little.
With Labour it is all about how they are perceived they fight straw men in order to demonstrate their centre right credentials, whilst the actual results of their time in power are often rather left wing.
Well, the Conservatives hardly covered themselves in glory either, during their terms of office, hence it is easy for Labour to talk about dealing with such issues, as the Tories made such a total cock up of things before.
Besides which all this talk of left/right wing is crap anyway. Such broad and old fashioned categorisations explain why the Tories can't ge their act together, as Labour discovered, that people can have a right wing view on one thing and a left or centre view on another.
srebbe64 said:
The Labour marketing guys have got it right, unfortunarely. Meanwhile, the Tory marketing guys don't actually exist! Tonight I watched an interview with certain 'Young Connservatives' - cringeworthy, or what! The Labour spin machine will be laughing their socks off tonight! In reality, to get elected policies are not important, track-record is not important and debate is not important. What is important important is 'marketing' - particularly what is seen on TV. Both TB and Brown are excellent speakers, and impressively visually. It's a proven marketing fact that such a package will get votes.
I think you have summed it up nicely though with the proviso that the 'package' you see is partly determined by the bias of the media through which it is presented
srebbe64 said:
The Labour marketing guys have got it right, unfortunarely. Meanwhile, the Tory marketing guys don't actually exist! Tonight I watched an interview with certain 'Young Connservatives' - cringeworthy, or what! The Labour spin machine will be laughing their socks off tonight! In reality, to get elected policies are not important, track-record is not important and debate is not important. What is important important is 'marketing' - particularly what is seen on TV. Both TB and Brown are excellent speakers, and impressively visually. It's a proven marketing fact that such a package will get votes.
precisely right and everytime u see a conservative meeting and everyone is over 90 more voters switch off...
Way too early to tell - so much could happen between now and the next general election.
I think the economy's going to catch a major dose of man 'flu in the next 12 months and this will expose Brown's lies on borrowing, taxation and public spending. This will do him some severe damage.
I think the unions are also building up a head of steam and we're likely to see some flexing of muscles in the months ahead. This will do Blair some severe damage.
The Conservative leadership contest is a vital factor. The process doesn't really matter, so long as they come up with the right answer. That doesn't have to mean a populist answer - there's plenty of time for a new leader to prove themselves between now and the next election.
The one part of Blair's speach that I did think had resonance yesterday was his comment on the other main political parties. "We should never take the Conservatives too lightly and we should never take the Lib Dems too seriously." Well played that speech writer!
I think the economy's going to catch a major dose of man 'flu in the next 12 months and this will expose Brown's lies on borrowing, taxation and public spending. This will do him some severe damage.
I think the unions are also building up a head of steam and we're likely to see some flexing of muscles in the months ahead. This will do Blair some severe damage.
The Conservative leadership contest is a vital factor. The process doesn't really matter, so long as they come up with the right answer. That doesn't have to mean a populist answer - there's plenty of time for a new leader to prove themselves between now and the next election.
The one part of Blair's speach that I did think had resonance yesterday was his comment on the other main political parties. "We should never take the Conservatives too lightly and we should never take the Lib Dems too seriously." Well played that speech writer!
You know I don't actually think Tony will hand over to Gordon, they'll be time to prepare another heir apparent in the meantime.
Over the next few years your going to see alot of bad economic news for the UK, even the dreaded term of Britain as the 'sick man of Europe' might come back to haunt us. Browns economic policies are going to be called into question, that'll make him as tainted as Tony is by the Iraq war.
My money is someone untainted, so neither Tony nor Gordo. But they probably will win the next election, even if it is by fairly massive postal electoral fraud and a delay in the updating of constituency boundaries. And even if they didn't win a majority of seats in the commons they'd form a coalition with the LibDems.
Over the next few years your going to see alot of bad economic news for the UK, even the dreaded term of Britain as the 'sick man of Europe' might come back to haunt us. Browns economic policies are going to be called into question, that'll make him as tainted as Tony is by the Iraq war.
My money is someone untainted, so neither Tony nor Gordo. But they probably will win the next election, even if it is by fairly massive postal electoral fraud and a delay in the updating of constituency boundaries. And even if they didn't win a majority of seats in the commons they'd form a coalition with the LibDems.
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