House prices - soft landing?
House prices - soft landing?
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Discussion

tinman0

Original Poster:

18,231 posts

269 months

Thursday 30th June 2005
quotequote all
[pic]http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/41249000/gif/_41249001_houseprice_3006_gra203.gif[/pic]

There must be some vivid imaginations out there.

Everything I have read so far about the housing slowdown says "it'll be a soft landing".

But if you were given that graph - would you be thinking, "hmm soft landing"? How much of a steep decline on a graph do you need to start thinking "hmmm, might not be soft landing". Where does that graph at any point on its curve indicate "soft landing"?

The only thing the wretched graph shows is a damn big drop that is still in progress with no signs of recovery. I fail to see how on that data you can expect anything else.

Incorrigible

13,668 posts

290 months

Thursday 30th June 2005
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We dropped ours nearly 10% to sell

And I know it went for 5% less than one up the road last year, and the same as another up the road 2 years before

Yet this graph still shows a 4% increase where's my extra £30k then

Plotloss

67,280 posts

299 months

Thursday 30th June 2005
quotequote all
Surely thats indicating a soft landing?

July 2004 house prices rising at around 1.5% per month.

July 2005 house prices rising at around 0.3% a month

I would say if anything that that graph is optimistic, around here, prices are falling slightly...

rich1231

17,340 posts

289 months

Thursday 30th June 2005
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if that graph went further doun and you saw -2 -4 etc then that would worry me greatly, but as it only shows a slowly slowing market then its no cause for concern. Wait until interest rates drop in the next few months to see if it levels.

>> Edited by rich1231 on Thursday 30th June 10:56

rude-boy

22,227 posts

262 months

Thursday 30th June 2005
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anonymous said:
[redacted]


Very true.

Above £200k it's a bit sticky and below £120 it's like trying to catch a greased pig to get a good one before it's gone.

We appear to have reached a point at which House prices will not go up in value by much but nor will they plummet.

Not too sure that graph is that great though. If you ask me house price inflation was going up like mad 'till about July last year, then the real world hit, and since the end of August nothing's gone up in value save those between £100k and £120k the day after the budget. On the flip side it's not really gone down either. Sure it's a Buyers market but no sign of a '89 style drop.

tinman0

Original Poster:

18,231 posts

269 months

Thursday 30th June 2005
quotequote all
anonymous said:
[redacted]


I still don't see where the graph shows any sign of levelling out. Of all the possible outcomes you can come up with, levelling out at zero is the least likely.

Carrera2

8,352 posts

261 months

Thursday 30th June 2005
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As that graph shows only price increase it would need to be the exact opposite over the next 12 months for house prices to have remained the same in a two year period.

Soft landing? I think so.

rude-boy

22,227 posts

262 months

Thursday 30th June 2005
quotequote all
anonymous said:
[redacted]




:whingemodeon: Would also mention that my fees have had to stay the same this year as they were when we set them in Jan '03, yet I'm having to do about 30-60mins extra work per file to deal with badly drafted forms and moronic legislation.

KingRichard

10,146 posts

261 months

Thursday 30th June 2005
quotequote all
Incorrigible said:
We dropped ours nearly 10% to sell

And I know it went for 5% less than one up the road last year, and the same as another up the road 2 years before

Yet this graph still shows a 4% increase where's my extra £30k then


You sold for £720k? Thats why... presuming you don't live in Mayfair thats comfortably at the top of most markets... all the top end stuff is suffering at the moment.

All we have seen in kent is Asking Prices coming down, not so much average prices on exchange its just a realisation that house prices aren't increasing at the moment, and IMHO the slowdown in the market has been due to Vendors asking, and expecting too much money, which limits saleable houses in the market.

For sure there are lots of people trying to sell at the moment... but are they all accepting that they need to still be looking at early '04 prices, not an inflated one?

The places that are selling are the sharp cookies who realise this, and it leaves the guys that won't listen whingeing and moaning.

rude-boy

22,227 posts

262 months

Thursday 30th June 2005
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KingRichard said:

The places that are selling are the sharp cookies who realise this, and it leaves the guys that won't listen whingeing and moaning.


Could you please explain this to my ex who is blaming everything but the asking price for why the house hasn't sold yet, despite being told it should be on for £10k less?

up-the-dubs

4,282 posts

258 months

Thursday 30th June 2005
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Taht graph looks like a mirror for Irish house prices. Up up and away...........

Far too expensive now. I'm busting my gut to buy my first. No fun.

Incorrigible

13,668 posts

290 months

Thursday 30th June 2005
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KingRichard said:
You sold for £720k?
Err no, not even close, in fact about 1/4 of that

minimax

11,985 posts

285 months

Thursday 30th June 2005
quotequote all
tinman0 said:


There must be some vivid imaginations out there.

Everything I have read so far about the housing slowdown says "it'll be a soft landing".

But if you were given that graph - would you be thinking, "hmm soft landing"? How much of a steep decline on a graph do you need to start thinking "hmmm, might not be soft landing". Where does that graph at any point on its curve indicate "soft landing"?

The only thing the wretched graph shows is a damn big drop that is still in progress with no signs of recovery. I fail to see how on that data you can expect anything else.


pardon?

that graph does not show a drop in house prices, it shows a slow down in (house price) inflation. the housing market continues to remain flat, some areas dropping slightly, others rising slightly

up-the-dubs

4,282 posts

258 months

Thursday 30th June 2005
quotequote all
over the last three years I think there has been an average of 60-80,000 new homes (apartments or houses) built in the dublin area alone. There is so much demand for investors and purchasers alike that it is tough. A good friend sell new homes and they are ruthless with the prices. A good opening weekend and they crank on €10,000 for the next weekend. She has even priced herself out of a house she wanted to buy!

Our wages did go up with the tiger, but not nearly as much as house prices. Currently there is no end in sight to the rise but it is slowing slightly. Morgtages are easy to get, but impossible to afford.

As i said, it's no fun, and I'm more than just a bit nervous about it as my house will be completed in October.

kerfuffle

5,253 posts

283 months

Thursday 30th June 2005
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I don't suppose anyone knows anything about Guildford house prices and trends at the moment do they?

Incorrigible

13,668 posts

290 months

Thursday 30th June 2005
quotequote all
kerfuffle said:
I don't suppose anyone knows anything about Guildford house prices and trends at the moment do they?
I'm in Horsham, don't know how closely related the fluctuations will be

Drop me a PM if you want to chat about it

KingRichard

10,146 posts

261 months

Thursday 30th June 2005
quotequote all
rude-boy said:

KingRichard said:

The places that are selling are the sharp cookies who realise this, and it leaves the guys that won't listen whingeing and moaning.



Could you please explain this to my ex who is blaming everything but the asking price for why the house hasn't sold yet, despite being told it should be on for £10k less?


Ask your Estate Agent to do it, thats what your paying them for mate

minimax

11,985 posts

285 months

Thursday 30th June 2005
quotequote all
KingRichard said:

rude-boy said:


KingRichard said:

The places that are selling are the sharp cookies who realise this, and it leaves the guys that won't listen whingeing and moaning.




Could you please explain this to my ex who is blaming everything but the asking price for why the house hasn't sold yet, despite being told it should be on for £10k less?



Ask your Estate Agent to do it, thats what your paying them for mate


reductions reductions reductions!

you got a day off from the academy matey?

kerfuffle

5,253 posts

283 months

Thursday 30th June 2005
quotequote all
anonymous said:
[redacted]


It seems a funny period - I've noticed a few houses dropping their prices in the sector I'm looking at. Indeed one place I'm considering has had £75k knocked off it, which is good but also a worry. Quite a few have been knocking around £10k off.

KingRichard

10,146 posts

261 months

Thursday 30th June 2005
quotequote all
minimax said:

KingRichard said:


rude-boy said:



KingRichard said:

The places that are selling are the sharp cookies who realise this, and it leaves the guys that won't listen whingeing and moaning.





Could you please explain this to my ex who is blaming everything but the asking price for why the house hasn't sold yet, despite being told it should be on for £10k less?




Ask your Estate Agent to do it, thats what your paying them for mate



reductions reductions reductions!

you got a day off from the academy matey?


Nope, studying hard! well ok, i'll start in a minute... but I've got through all of CeMAP 2 in 10 Days so i'm allowing a small amount of PH time You writing lots of business?

Prob best in a mail mate rather than me clogging up the topic!

Yes, Reductions = Sales, unless your Estate Agent really knows his onions then he won't take it on for too much money in the first place