The future, and prognostications thereof...
Discussion
100 years doesn't seem very long in the scheme of things BUT - did you realise that 100 years ago it was *only* 1905...?
It's boggling to think of how the world has changed in that 100 years. The sun never set on the British Empire, the Great War wasn't even going to start for another 9 years, the Wright brothers only flew two years ago and Adolf Hitler was a teenager.
Which makes me think - what on earth's going to happen in the *next* 100 years, 2005 - 2105? Developments, technology, social change, wars. What of wars? It is practical to expect that man will stop fighting? I don't think so. Will China turn its DVD-player factories into weapons factories and head west, a la Mongols? Or will a new leader unite the Middle East make it Christians vs Muslims?
It's fascinating to ponder the variables and try to work out what might happen. But then, how much of the 20th century could have been predicted in 1905? A war with Germany perhaps, but no more.
Answers on a postcard. Closing date 9 May 2105...
It's boggling to think of how the world has changed in that 100 years. The sun never set on the British Empire, the Great War wasn't even going to start for another 9 years, the Wright brothers only flew two years ago and Adolf Hitler was a teenager.
Which makes me think - what on earth's going to happen in the *next* 100 years, 2005 - 2105? Developments, technology, social change, wars. What of wars? It is practical to expect that man will stop fighting? I don't think so. Will China turn its DVD-player factories into weapons factories and head west, a la Mongols? Or will a new leader unite the Middle East make it Christians vs Muslims?
It's fascinating to ponder the variables and try to work out what might happen. But then, how much of the 20th century could have been predicted in 1905? A war with Germany perhaps, but no more.
Answers on a postcard. Closing date 9 May 2105...
100 years since Einstein's landmark paper in 1905, and 100 years on again - what science fiction will be science fact by then?
In social terms, a real fear from extrapolation of current trends is the stifling of individuality, removal of the last vestige of risk, infinite political correctness and being so terrified of the environment god that we all have to fart in a jar and recycle our earwax.
In social terms, a real fear from extrapolation of current trends is the stifling of individuality, removal of the last vestige of risk, infinite political correctness and being so terrified of the environment god that we all have to fart in a jar and recycle our earwax.
We'll found economies based on things other than oil, probably biopetrol and biodiesel grown in GM (we'll accept it eventually) fields.
We've had technological integration and minuturisation throughout the last 100 years. The next development is technological combination. We're already seeing computers and mobile phones integrated. I think we'll see good-looking 'lounge' computers which deal with games, TV, radio, Hi-fi, telephone and work. Mobile phones will become the hand-held version, interactive with other 'lounge' computers.
Politics is going along Max Weber's predictions - politicians are becoming more distant from the people and government is becoming an all-enveloping bureaucracy. I'm not sure what the people will do in response. Possibly willfully ignore the government?
I don't think we'll see WWIII. Those scales of war occurred when states went to war with each other. This doesn't fit with the protocol any more - groups go to war and a country cannot expect a population to follow a decision to go to war.
We'll see a new resurgence of social conservatism. There will come a point where we'll have enough of chavs, of people getting away with everything, compensation culture, cheap loans, porn being shoved in everyone's faces and 10-year-old girls wearing tops with 'Sex Goddess' written on them. Some people might find it puritannical, others will see it as a reassertion of British social standards.
We've had technological integration and minuturisation throughout the last 100 years. The next development is technological combination. We're already seeing computers and mobile phones integrated. I think we'll see good-looking 'lounge' computers which deal with games, TV, radio, Hi-fi, telephone and work. Mobile phones will become the hand-held version, interactive with other 'lounge' computers.
Politics is going along Max Weber's predictions - politicians are becoming more distant from the people and government is becoming an all-enveloping bureaucracy. I'm not sure what the people will do in response. Possibly willfully ignore the government?
I don't think we'll see WWIII. Those scales of war occurred when states went to war with each other. This doesn't fit with the protocol any more - groups go to war and a country cannot expect a population to follow a decision to go to war.
We'll see a new resurgence of social conservatism. There will come a point where we'll have enough of chavs, of people getting away with everything, compensation culture, cheap loans, porn being shoved in everyone's faces and 10-year-old girls wearing tops with 'Sex Goddess' written on them. Some people might find it puritannical, others will see it as a reassertion of British social standards.
Twincam16 said:
We'll see a new resurgence of social conservatism. There will come a point where we'll have enough of chavs, of people getting away with everything, compensation culture, cheap loans, porn being shoved in everyone's faces and 10-year-old girls wearing tops with 'Sex Goddess' written on them. Some people might find it puritannical, others will see it as a reassertion of British social standards.
Back to my point about China. Do you think they see us as a "civilised culture" with all this crap going on? We must be a laughing stock to others.
I think we have about 30 years until things kick off. Im quite concerned what is going to happen to the middle east when they start running low on oil, yes the price will increase, but with that demand will decrease as alternative fuel sources are exploited.. so what is going to happen when the middle east economies collapse? China-> big concern also, as they grow and become more confident what are they going to do about taiwan? That could lead to unfortunate actions...
This is without even considering the spread of AIDS and the possibility of a flu pandemic and the rapid spread of infections due to world travel. If terrorists get hold of small pox we are in trouble too, not to mention there are over 200 nukes unaccounted for in the former USSR.
Humanity is in for some interesting times ahead that's for sure.. make the most of it while you can.
This is without even considering the spread of AIDS and the possibility of a flu pandemic and the rapid spread of infections due to world travel. If terrorists get hold of small pox we are in trouble too, not to mention there are over 200 nukes unaccounted for in the former USSR.
Humanity is in for some interesting times ahead that's for sure.. make the most of it while you can.
Well AIDS is going to wipe out a fair wedge of the African population and E.Europe and China won't be far behind.
Islam without doubt will be the dominate religion and I would think there will be some kind of leader able to unite all of the countries of Islam which will neutralise the current American empire.
USA will turn inwards and protect its borders without its position of dominance in the middle east and Israel will cease to exist in its current form.
Things like chavs will got the way of all other fashions!
Thats bout it for me.
Islam without doubt will be the dominate religion and I would think there will be some kind of leader able to unite all of the countries of Islam which will neutralise the current American empire.
USA will turn inwards and protect its borders without its position of dominance in the middle east and Israel will cease to exist in its current form.
Things like chavs will got the way of all other fashions!
Thats bout it for me.
I think it's possible that we'll see lawless, chav-infested 'ghettoes' - areas the police will literally give up policing. Nearly every car will be untaxed and uninsured, houses will be worth nothing, everything will be stolen and chavs will run riot.
And people will learn to give these areas a very wide berth.
Sad, innit?
And people will learn to give these areas a very wide berth.
Sad, innit?
Twincam16 said:
I think it's possible that we'll see lawless, chav-infested 'ghettoes' - areas the police will literally give up policing. Nearly every car will be untaxed and uninsured, houses will be worth nothing, everything will be stolen and chavs will run riot.
And people will learn to give these areas a very wide berth.
You've been to Stockport then?
Nice to have an optimistic discussion about the future isn't it? 
But seriously, many experts believe that we are entering a new "dark age". The "Mega Rich" of this world are now so powerful that they dictate to, and threaten governments the world over. Changing Political systems and laws that they:........don't like.
Huge corporations use their collective muscle to bring down those who resist. Wages and rights for the poor are being driven through the floor whilst they take the profits to make themselves even richer.
Sure in the end things will have to stabilise, if they want to sell their goods to us, prices will have to fall along with wages, but they will pick up the "extra" cash so released by selling globally.
I believe we are entering a new global "industrial revolution", greater possibly than that of the last century which will leave a handful of very rich, controlling everthing worldwide. They will make the rules, decide the laws, set the wages. The Democracy experiment will die. I'm almost glad that I won't see it, or will I? Never mind eh, chin up!
But seriously, many experts believe that we are entering a new "dark age". The "Mega Rich" of this world are now so powerful that they dictate to, and threaten governments the world over. Changing Political systems and laws that they:........don't like.
Huge corporations use their collective muscle to bring down those who resist. Wages and rights for the poor are being driven through the floor whilst they take the profits to make themselves even richer.
Sure in the end things will have to stabilise, if they want to sell their goods to us, prices will have to fall along with wages, but they will pick up the "extra" cash so released by selling globally.
I believe we are entering a new global "industrial revolution", greater possibly than that of the last century which will leave a handful of very rich, controlling everthing worldwide. They will make the rules, decide the laws, set the wages. The Democracy experiment will die. I'm almost glad that I won't see it, or will I? Never mind eh, chin up!
I'm pretty convinced that an energy CRISIS is inevitable and will happen quite pronto and will be sped up by the westernisation of China, etc. We will not have enough nuclear power stations in place or enough time to build them as the power crisis happens. Considering the supply/demand/price, there will be a pinch point where it just goes tits up. Thankfully, I will have burned as much petrol as possible and will be able to resign myself to a life of my library and candles made from animal fat.
Forget coal distillation, wind energy, vegetarian fart harnessing and pipework to cows arses. We are in for a munter of a fuel crisis and it's probably going to go tits up in my lifetime. (I reckon).
Thanks to this stupid government pandering to the whims of most idiots to get their next terms, long term policy is strictly out of the question. It reminds me of Viz where that chap has a car powered by monkey spunk and a bike powered by leopards fanny batter. It is laughable but sad how the ignorance of world governments is going to make this a major snag.
We need to start building lots of nuclear power stations now, regardless of what those
idiots in the thinktanks say. Failing that we need to have a big cull to get a feasible way of maintaining our lifestyles in light of the energy we will have at our disposal.
.....or we could just become the 51st state of the US and have some of the oil they are saving when the middle east runs dry.
Sadly, oil is important for chemical raw stocks and is A LOT MORE IMPORTANT THAN YOU THINK. I often wish I could live 500 years and see what happens as I reckon there is going to be a break point in these exponential patterns.
Forget coal distillation, wind energy, vegetarian fart harnessing and pipework to cows arses. We are in for a munter of a fuel crisis and it's probably going to go tits up in my lifetime. (I reckon).
Thanks to this stupid government pandering to the whims of most idiots to get their next terms, long term policy is strictly out of the question. It reminds me of Viz where that chap has a car powered by monkey spunk and a bike powered by leopards fanny batter. It is laughable but sad how the ignorance of world governments is going to make this a major snag.
We need to start building lots of nuclear power stations now, regardless of what those
idiots in the thinktanks say. Failing that we need to have a big cull to get a feasible way of maintaining our lifestyles in light of the energy we will have at our disposal. .....or we could just become the 51st state of the US and have some of the oil they are saving when the middle east runs dry.
Sadly, oil is important for chemical raw stocks and is A LOT MORE IMPORTANT THAN YOU THINK. I often wish I could live 500 years and see what happens as I reckon there is going to be a break point in these exponential patterns.
Disagree ever so slightly love machine on the long term policy thing. I think all past UK governments have been shortsighted. Privitising the energy industries and taking them out of state control I believe was a mistake, how can any government plan the future of a private company? Some things I feel are BETTER done by the state.
Incidently, did you see the recent TV programme ( forget which channel) on the Nuclear industry? (Agree that it must take a bigger part, for better or worse). The American expert critisised the size of the reactor built at "3 mile island" (and I suspect, elsewhere) saying it should have been smaller.
If it had, the disaster would not have happened, the containment vessel would have coped. So more smaller reactors seems to be the future, the larger ones were it seems more for the production of weapons grade plutonium not electrical power.
>> Edited by 8Pack on Tuesday 10th May 01:40
Incidently, did you see the recent TV programme ( forget which channel) on the Nuclear industry? (Agree that it must take a bigger part, for better or worse). The American expert critisised the size of the reactor built at "3 mile island" (and I suspect, elsewhere) saying it should have been smaller.
If it had, the disaster would not have happened, the containment vessel would have coped. So more smaller reactors seems to be the future, the larger ones were it seems more for the production of weapons grade plutonium not electrical power.
>> Edited by 8Pack on Tuesday 10th May 01:40
Good topic!
Futurology is a long term interest of mine, so based upon considerable thought and reading of numerous scientific publications, here goes:
The world will be a significantly different place in 100 years to what it is now.
The Positives:
Technology will hae developed beyond a point at which we can realistically imagine right now, as computer power continues to increase exponentially. In essence, we will reach a point where we no longer have to work out the answers, but rather have to work out the questions - the computers will work out the answers.
Communications will be constant and we will have two lives - a real life and a cyber-life. Both will interact in a totally integrated way.
The moon will have been industrialised and manufacturing and mining operations will have been established.
Humans will have established a scientific research post on Mars, and early colonists will have begun to settle.
Power will no longer be an issue, as nuclear fusion and a range of other technologies will have been developed.
The planet will be a cleaner place as enironmental issues have become fully global issues.
It is quite likely that evidence will have been found of extra-terrestrial life in one form or another.
Cancer in most of it's forms will have been cured.
The Negatives:
Over-population growth in certain areas will have led to mass famines and significant population migration.
The world will have divided upon religious lines even more so than today - with two major camps - believers and non-believers.
Catholicism will have declined, as will christianity in general. Islam will have expanded, but reached a peak in the developing world. In the developed world it will have made less of an impact as moslems become more integrated into the democratic process and reject theocracies.
There will have been at least one major virus outbreak which will have killed many millions of people, and resulted in much tighter border controls.
More of us will live in secure communities as a result of paranoia over property crime.
There will be more prisons and far more punitive punishments as a result of state intolerance to petty crime and social dysfunction.
Just a few long-term predictions based upon years of fascination with this kind of stuff....
Feel very free to disagree.
>> Edited by alexkp on Tuesday 10th May 09:48
Futurology is a long term interest of mine, so based upon considerable thought and reading of numerous scientific publications, here goes:
The world will be a significantly different place in 100 years to what it is now.
The Positives:
Technology will hae developed beyond a point at which we can realistically imagine right now, as computer power continues to increase exponentially. In essence, we will reach a point where we no longer have to work out the answers, but rather have to work out the questions - the computers will work out the answers.
Communications will be constant and we will have two lives - a real life and a cyber-life. Both will interact in a totally integrated way.
The moon will have been industrialised and manufacturing and mining operations will have been established.
Humans will have established a scientific research post on Mars, and early colonists will have begun to settle.
Power will no longer be an issue, as nuclear fusion and a range of other technologies will have been developed.
The planet will be a cleaner place as enironmental issues have become fully global issues.
It is quite likely that evidence will have been found of extra-terrestrial life in one form or another.
Cancer in most of it's forms will have been cured.
The Negatives:
Over-population growth in certain areas will have led to mass famines and significant population migration.
The world will have divided upon religious lines even more so than today - with two major camps - believers and non-believers.
Catholicism will have declined, as will christianity in general. Islam will have expanded, but reached a peak in the developing world. In the developed world it will have made less of an impact as moslems become more integrated into the democratic process and reject theocracies.
There will have been at least one major virus outbreak which will have killed many millions of people, and resulted in much tighter border controls.
More of us will live in secure communities as a result of paranoia over property crime.
There will be more prisons and far more punitive punishments as a result of state intolerance to petty crime and social dysfunction.
Just a few long-term predictions based upon years of fascination with this kind of stuff....
Feel very free to disagree.
>> Edited by alexkp on Tuesday 10th May 09:48
Twincam16 said:
I think it's possible that we'll see lawless, chav-infested 'ghettoes' - areas the police will literally give up policing. Nearly every car will be untaxed and uninsured, houses will be worth nothing, everything will be stolen and chavs will run riot.
And people will learn to give these areas a very wide berth.
Sad, innit?
pre-Victorian times there were many places like this, Bobby Peel changing that in the late 1820's.
There are areas of Belfast like that currently, although they have local "enforcement" which can keep things in check but is not exactly a wholesome solution
In 100 years there will be fantasic technological innovations. Man will have ventured further into space, perhaps beyond Mars.
China will be THE manufacturing centre of the world and the richest economy.
Oil will still be found, as methods of discovery develop, climate change will have been proven once and for all - one way or the other.
BUT I still see the biggest problem will be religious groups bickering and fighting with each other - causing problems throughout the world.
We WONT be living on the moon or flying to work.
...Hopefully the x-ray specs I have always wanted will be commercially available
China will be THE manufacturing centre of the world and the richest economy.
Oil will still be found, as methods of discovery develop, climate change will have been proven once and for all - one way or the other.
BUT I still see the biggest problem will be religious groups bickering and fighting with each other - causing problems throughout the world.
We WONT be living on the moon or flying to work.
...Hopefully the x-ray specs I have always wanted will be commercially available
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