UK at risk of Mega Tsunamis

UK at risk of Mega Tsunamis

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john75

Original Poster:

5,303 posts

254 months

Thursday 30th December 2004
quotequote all
The Geological Society [Note 1] has written to the Science Minister Lord Sainsbury warning him that the UK could be severely endangered by tsunamis (often wrongly termed "tidal waves"). The possibility of "mega-tsunamis" originating from the collapse of unstable volcanic islands in the Atlantic form the subject of a BBC Horizon programme to be broadcast on Thursday 12 October.

The Society is recommending that another task force, similar to that which recently reported on the threat from Near Earth Asteroids, be set up to look at a broad band of terrestrial disasters. It is likely that tsunamis, large earthquakes and supervolcanoes pose a greater threat than cosmic impacts; particularly since such events are unstoppable.

The letter, from Professor Chris Wilson, the Society's Honorary Secretary (Foreign and External Affairs) says:

"Such disasters have affected, and could in future affect, the UK. In such an event, Government should have civil defence contingency plans in place to deal with them. These plans will inevitably involve trans-departmental co-operation on a significant scale, at least involving MAFF for coastal defence, the Environment Agency on lowland rivers and the DETR on planning issues.

"Catastrophes caused by earthquakes (especially those affecting major economic centres such as Tokyo or California) volcanoes, tsunamis and cosmic impacts are all (with the possible exception of the latter) unstoppable. Humanity will eventually have to deal with the consequences of such events; perhaps tomorrow, or in tens, hundreds or thousands of years' time.

"Governments have taken global warming seriously, but the inevitability of global natural hazards has yet to be recognised as a problem by the international community. The recognition that meteorite impacts are more than science fantasy by the UK Government is encouraging. We suggest that the UK should go even further and take the lead in influencing the international community to develop global natural disaster preparation plans based on sound scientific research. "

The BBC Horizon programme features the work of Dr Simon Day and Professor Bill McGuire of the Benfield Greig Hazard Research Centre, University College London.

richie_few

642 posts

243 months

Thursday 30th December 2004
quotequote all
HMMMM sounds possible but its the normal post-disaster scare mungering

john75

Original Poster:

5,303 posts

254 months

Thursday 30th December 2004
quotequote all
Richie you might draw that conclusion but I forgot to point out that it was four years ago that these concerns were raised.

mrmaggit

10,146 posts

255 months

Thursday 30th December 2004
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I seem to remember that there was some sort of undersea landslide that swamped the Orkneys and Shetlands in pre-written history.

Also that the science fraternity are awaiting Hawaii to split in two, and half of one of the Azores to fall into the Atlantic. Not to mention Yellowstone erupting.

Big Bunker, anybody?

robdickinson

31,343 posts

261 months

Thursday 30th December 2004
quotequote all
Theres a lot of what if talk about the canaries, one of them basicaly splitting in half, drowining the east coast of the US and doing similar damage to europe.

So what? nothing we can do about it if it happens, and it may not for 1000's of years.

FourWheelDrift

89,646 posts

291 months

Thursday 30th December 2004
quotequote all
richie_few said:
HMMMM sounds possible but its the normal post-disaster scare mungering


The use of the words "BBC program" probably gave the game away a bit on that one.

richie_few

642 posts

243 months

Thursday 30th December 2004
quotequote all
The risks are always there, i studied "natural disasters" as part of a geography a-level. It doesnt qualify my to any more than the next man but there are so many risks of so many possible eventualities that the cost of defence out ways the cost of repair.

its quite frightening when you consider the risks that surround us!!!

turbobloke

107,864 posts

267 months

Thursday 30th December 2004
quotequote all
If this goes the right way then some major good may come of it, if all it does is give governments the leeway to levy more taxes and then waste the income on projects unrelated to the hazard that was supposedly the reason for the tax then it'll be yet another waste of time and money.

As for some of the detail...sound stuff except for two angles. Firstly climate shifts - like all the other natural phenomena discussed - are not amenable to change by mankind at all and for any doubters certainly not on the scale seen many times in the past, where shifts of between 5 and 10 deg C have happened in the space of a human lifetime well before industrialisation and mechanised transport. The greens are currently apoplectic over half a degree in 100+ years. Secondly, some near-earth potentially hazardous objects may not be stoppable either, as detection may be very late in the day.

To illustrate the abuses of political 'concern' like this, take the risible climate change levy on UK businesses. What exactly has Tiny Bliar done to help people and businesses offset the impact of possible future climate change, whatever its cause? Not a lot. But if you're a four toed purple skinned trisexual martian asylum seeker looking for benefits and a free roof, you'll be a big fan of it.

As for syetems and procedures designed to help minimise and/or alleviate natural disasters, the US geology folk sent word of possible tsunami activity to Hong Kong after the quake and before the wave struck, clearly nothing effective happened after that to help people directly affected. No doubt we all wish and hope there is undiluted sincerity behind this, if not, we're doomed in the long run.

turbobloke

107,864 posts

267 months

Thursday 30th December 2004
quotequote all
richie_few said:
...its quite frightening when you consider the risks that surround us!!!
Yep, the planet doesn't need saving from us, but we and other inhabitants certainly need saving from it on a regular basis

hedders

24,460 posts

254 months

Thursday 30th December 2004
quotequote all
robdickinson said:
Theres a lot of what if talk about the canaries, one of them basicaly splitting in half, drowining the east coast of the US and doing similar damage to europe.



All of a sudden I am curious about how high i am above sea level...I have had a sniff around google etc but can't seem to find any info without buying a special map.

turbobloke

107,864 posts

267 months

Thursday 30th December 2004
quotequote all
hedders said:
All of a sudden I am curious about how high i am above sea level...I have had a sniff around google etc but can't seem to find any info without buying a special map.
Hedders, try putting your postcode in here

richie_few

642 posts

243 months

Thursday 30th December 2004
quotequote all
All in all we are actually very lucky living in this country as far as natural disasters go.

can you imagine living in Japan with the earthquakes they get and history of Tsunami.

Caribean: tropical storms
Usa: tornados, hurricanes, earthquakes, volcanic erruptions.

The list is endless!!!!!!!

The only regular problem in this country is coastal erosion and flooding.

The best place to live at the moment is iceland.

Its getting bigger!!!!!!!!

chief-0369

1,195 posts

259 months

Thursday 30th December 2004
quotequote all
richie_few said:

The best place to live at the moment is iceland.


Dont they have volcanos?

turbobloke

107,864 posts

267 months

Thursday 30th December 2004
quotequote all
Gazboy said:
How do you stop 3,000,000,000,000,000 tonnes of water anyway? You can't.
Tonytax could do it

telecat

8,528 posts

248 months

Thursday 30th December 2004
quotequote all
The Program was about La Palma that has a large fault on It's Volcano that could allow it to fall into the sea during the next eruption. The Tsunami would in theory decimate the east coast of the USA. The conclusion for Europe was that Cornwall might have some larger waves than normal but wouldn't be that affected due to the direction of the original wave.

www.bbc.co.uk/science/horizon/2000/mega_tsunami.shtml


There is also the possibility it is "junk" science. The Tsunami in the Bay could be a geological freak due to the closeness of the valley walls around it. Another view is here.

www.sthjournal.org/media.htm
>> Edited by telecat on Thursday 30th December 14:05

>> Edited by telecat on Thursday 30th December 14:14

tallbloke

10,376 posts

290 months

Thursday 30th December 2004
quotequote all


http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/3963563.stm

seems to cover both sides of the argument even handedly.

willmcc

758 posts

246 months

Thursday 30th December 2004
quotequote all
North East Scotland suffered a tsunami about 2500(?)yrs ago, whenever it was, in geological time it was very recent.
Water washed up against the Grampians basically wiping out much of low lying North East Scotland, was caused by a underwater landslide in Norway IIRC. They reckon that similar slips could happen again but have no way of telling when.

>> Edited by willmcc on Thursday 30th December 14:28

arcturus

1,493 posts

270 months

Thursday 30th December 2004
quotequote all
hedders said:


All of a sudden I am curious about how high i am above sea level...


Put your postcode into www.multimap.co.uk . When the map comes up, switch to the 1:25000 scale and you will be able to see the contour lines, hence work out your height.

tallbloke

10,376 posts

290 months

Thursday 30th December 2004
quotequote all


Or this, which will show the cross section of the land between your address and a point on the coast of your choice.

www.megalithia.com/elect/terrain.html

You can use multimap to get the co-ordinates first.

mybrainhurts

90,809 posts

262 months

Thursday 30th December 2004
quotequote all
Or buy your local Ordnance Survey map and read off the contours.