Mathematics of the M25 roadworks
Discussion
About once a week I use the M25, but only if I can’t avoid it! Currently, the bit between the M3 and M4 is being widened into four lanes, which, apparently, is going to take about two years to complete. As such, the traffic is a total nightmare. When I was last in this particular traffic jam (twiddling my thumbs) I did some very simple maths.
Before the road-works started (outside of the rush hour) it would take me about 10-15 minutes to drive that distance – let’s say 15 minutes for arguments sake. Currently it takes me at least half an hour (often longer). So it is adding at least a quarter of an hour to my journey for the two year road-work period. I’m making an assumption, that when it becomes a four lane motorway it will knock, say, two minutes off of the previous time – from 15 minutes to 13 minutes.
If I continue to use the motorway once a week for the next two years, it will add 26 hours to my driving time over the duration of the road-works. So will I ever get this time back when it becomes a four lane motorway?
25 X 60 = 1560 minutes. Divide this by two minutes (the time I’ll save) and it means I’ll need to make the journey 780 times. I make the journey once a week (52 weeks a year), so I’ll get back my time in 15 years – the year 2020.
My question: is it worth spending hundreds of millions of Pounds for this level of payback?
Before the road-works started (outside of the rush hour) it would take me about 10-15 minutes to drive that distance – let’s say 15 minutes for arguments sake. Currently it takes me at least half an hour (often longer). So it is adding at least a quarter of an hour to my journey for the two year road-work period. I’m making an assumption, that when it becomes a four lane motorway it will knock, say, two minutes off of the previous time – from 15 minutes to 13 minutes.
If I continue to use the motorway once a week for the next two years, it will add 26 hours to my driving time over the duration of the road-works. So will I ever get this time back when it becomes a four lane motorway?
25 X 60 = 1560 minutes. Divide this by two minutes (the time I’ll save) and it means I’ll need to make the journey 780 times. I make the journey once a week (52 weeks a year), so I’ll get back my time in 15 years – the year 2020.
My question: is it worth spending hundreds of millions of Pounds for this level of payback?
Widening the M25 and M1 seems to be pouring money down a black hole - the road will fill up within weeks! What's more, the cost of building a new motorway is about the same as widening an existing one, but with obviously better effects (think M40 vs. M1/M6).
You're right, the maths doesn't make sense
You're right, the maths doesn't make sense
swilly said:
As PDV6 says, it would be a better use of your time to consider alternative routes rather than accepting you will be sitting in a jam for umpteen hours.
If I can avoid it I do, but that's not the point. The fact is thousands of pople are using the M25 between these two places and the maths will be similar for all of them - whether they use it once a day or once a year. It will still be a (circa) 15 year pay-back and the cost is hundereds of millions. Is it worth it? Would this public money be better spent on hospitals, schools, police, etc..?
>> Edited by srebbe64 on Thursday 16th December 12:05
I'd say the problem is the usual short-term thinking by the govt.
That's one of the busier sections of the M25, set to get worse due to Terminal 5. It needs 4 lanes right now today. By the time its completed, 5 will probably be needed.
Assuming there's nowhere to put a separate motorway/DC, they should be bunging in an extra 2 lanes each way; its unlikely to cost double the amount, I'd have thought, and when the decision is eventually made to stick a 5th lane in, you can be sure the cost will be treble what the 4th is currently costing...
That's one of the busier sections of the M25, set to get worse due to Terminal 5. It needs 4 lanes right now today. By the time its completed, 5 will probably be needed.
Assuming there's nowhere to put a separate motorway/DC, they should be bunging in an extra 2 lanes each way; its unlikely to cost double the amount, I'd have thought, and when the decision is eventually made to stick a 5th lane in, you can be sure the cost will be treble what the 4th is currently costing...
pdV6 said:
I'd say the problem is the usual short-term thinking by the govt.
That's one of the busier sections of the M25, set to get worse due to Terminal 5. It needs 4 lanes right now today. By the time its completed, 5 will probably be needed.
Assuming there's nowhere to put a separate motorway/DC, they should be bunging in an extra 2 lanes each way; its unlikely to cost double the amount, I'd have thought, and when the decision is eventually made to stick a 5th lane in, you can be sure the cost will be treble what the 4th is currently costing...
True - and the roadworks will take two years, which means it will be another 15 years to get the time back. 2035 - I'll be 75 years old!
srebbe64 said:
As PDV6 says, it would be a better use of your time to consider alternative routes rather than accepting you will be sitting in a jam for umpteen hours.
If I can avoid it I do, but that's not the point. The fact is thousands of pople are using the M25 between these two places and the maths will be similar for all of them - whether they use it once a day or once a year. It will still be a (circa) 15 year pay-back and the cost is hundereds of millions. Is it worth it? Would this public money be better spent on hospitals, schools, police, etc..?
>> Edited by srebbe64 on Thursday 16th December 12:05
How many traffic jams occur for no other reason than a group of numpties never bother to change their way of thinking, or simply accept being in a jam.
swilly said:
swilly said:
As PDV6 says, it would be a better use of your time to consider alternative routes rather than accepting you will be sitting in a jam for umpteen hours.
If I can avoid it I do, but that's not the point. The fact is thousands of pople are using the M25 between these two places and the maths will be similar for all of them - whether they use it once a day or once a year. It will still be a (circa) 15 year pay-back and the cost is hundereds of millions. Is it worth it? Would this public money be better spent on hospitals, schools, police, etc..?
>> Edited by srebbe64 on Thursday 16th December 12:05
How many traffic jams occur for no other reason than a group of numpties never bother to change their way of thinking, or simply accept being in a jam.
If, as you're suggesting, the route of the problem is joe public not using his nouse, then why spend hundreds of millions beefing up the motorway? Kind of proves my point really!
By the way, I have got a very decent sat-nav system which knows all the various short-cuts. However, so do may other people so these short cuts often become congested anyway.
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