Classic Car values to fall?
Discussion
OK, this is not based on any media reports or knowledge, just a hypothesis.
As Classics get older, and the people who can afford them, afford to fix them and the folks who maintain them become older, will we start to see the value of the older cars start to drop?
In other words, will the values of 1920's cars slowly retreat, as the people who value them become too old to enjoy, use and repair them?
Would that effect, if it happens, slowly move its way through all the decades?
My thinking is that I am sure there are many 60+ year olds that would be very keen to own anything their fathers owned from, say, 1930-50's.
However, today's kids would only remember at most 1960-70's metal on the roads and therefore have no interest in anything 20's.
So in theory... values would drop.
open to discussion, because I cannot make my mind up!
As Classics get older, and the people who can afford them, afford to fix them and the folks who maintain them become older, will we start to see the value of the older cars start to drop?
In other words, will the values of 1920's cars slowly retreat, as the people who value them become too old to enjoy, use and repair them?
Would that effect, if it happens, slowly move its way through all the decades?
My thinking is that I am sure there are many 60+ year olds that would be very keen to own anything their fathers owned from, say, 1930-50's.
However, today's kids would only remember at most 1960-70's metal on the roads and therefore have no interest in anything 20's.
So in theory... values would drop.
open to discussion, because I cannot make my mind up!
I'm not old enough by a long way to remember 20's & 30's cars on the road but the moment they drop enough so I can afford an ERA I'll be happy!
Suspect the relatively limited number of older vehicles will keep prices up as there's probably enough younger enthusisasts to support the market.
Suspect the relatively limited number of older vehicles will keep prices up as there's probably enough younger enthusisasts to support the market.
It depends on the car and the buyer IMO. Some cars ebb and flow in the tendiness market (for a whole variety of reasons) but there's one thing they all have in common: they do not attract Capital Gains Tax (or whatever sales tax various countrys have).
Whilst those that are cheaper and/or less desirable will ebb and flow with the trends of the car enthusiast, those of more value will be more influenced by the investment market. And the threshold is not as high as might be imagined, if you had £5k to invest what would be a better bet, putting it in a savings account, buying shares or buying a car?
Whilst those that are cheaper and/or less desirable will ebb and flow with the trends of the car enthusiast, those of more value will be more influenced by the investment market. And the threshold is not as high as might be imagined, if you had £5k to invest what would be a better bet, putting it in a savings account, buying shares or buying a car?
Unlikely to be honest. If you look at something like an Austin 7, the parts availability is amazing. The other thing they have in their favour is that due to the fairly basic construction most of the parts are easily reproduced. Ford designed their Model T to be run and maintained by unskilled hands (most of the bolts are the same size IIRC!).
The issue comes for cars of the 50s and afterwards when plastic started to be used. It's much harder to replicate plastic parts since unlike pressed steel parts they can't be remade in small runs by hand making them.
The issue comes for cars of the 50s and afterwards when plastic started to be used. It's much harder to replicate plastic parts since unlike pressed steel parts they can't be remade in small runs by hand making them.
Not that Im suggesting this is the right reason for values on classics or vintage motors - but theres always a big market for the hot-rodders etc.
Just look at the amount of old metal thats now been slammed to the floor and tricked out with the latest 'big block' or whatever.
I see what you're trying to get at, but IMO No, the values wont drop off (other than normal market conditions) unless all the governments around europe etc decide to ban classics altogether in their efforts to try and purvey a 'green' stance
Also, there are less 'classic' cars being produced today, other than the exotica which will always attract a premium. I just cant see people in 20 years time yearning for a Toyota Yaris or Vauxhall Zafira in the same way they would a classic mini, or Morris Traveller etc.
Just look at the amount of old metal thats now been slammed to the floor and tricked out with the latest 'big block' or whatever.
I see what you're trying to get at, but IMO No, the values wont drop off (other than normal market conditions) unless all the governments around europe etc decide to ban classics altogether in their efforts to try and purvey a 'green' stance
Also, there are less 'classic' cars being produced today, other than the exotica which will always attract a premium. I just cant see people in 20 years time yearning for a Toyota Yaris or Vauxhall Zafira in the same way they would a classic mini, or Morris Traveller etc.
I have thought this through before as I am 36 and I currently own a 1929 Lagonda. So far values (at auction) seem to be nicely on a positive trend. There are two observations I have made about ownership and why I have kept the car (apart from it being my fathers and a lot of fun).
1) Although not a LG45 or Le Mans 3 Litre it is still a signature brand and therefore inherent value will be retained as it will be with period Rolls/Bentley/Alfa/Bugatti etc....
2) Most stay in the same family ownership like an eternal pet dog would, there are therefore very few on the market. Tryng finding a 3 Litre High Chassis Open Tourer Lagonda for sale? Alternatively you almost choose what colour DB5 / Etype you wanted.
At some point I will probably sell it as I have daughters and not sons (they may yet surprise me)and they will probably want horses or the like.
Mechanically it has all been machined and there is nothing that can't be re-machined so up keep although expensive is far less trouble than replacing moulded spares.
1) Although not a LG45 or Le Mans 3 Litre it is still a signature brand and therefore inherent value will be retained as it will be with period Rolls/Bentley/Alfa/Bugatti etc....
2) Most stay in the same family ownership like an eternal pet dog would, there are therefore very few on the market. Tryng finding a 3 Litre High Chassis Open Tourer Lagonda for sale? Alternatively you almost choose what colour DB5 / Etype you wanted.
At some point I will probably sell it as I have daughters and not sons (they may yet surprise me)and they will probably want horses or the like.
Mechanically it has all been machined and there is nothing that can't be re-machined so up keep although expensive is far less trouble than replacing moulded spares.
Like any antique, classic cars are subject to the vagaries of fashion. They are also very dependent on genuine rarity. So values may fall as well as rise. I think that one of the reasons for the dramatic rise, and then fall, in classic car values in the 80's and 90's was that some of the people then buying them thought they were buying a commodity like a Vermeer or a Rembrandt. They didn't fully realise the implications of the condition of the cars they were buying, or the costs associated with restoration. Also they were influenced by prices being achieved for a small number of vehicles, and failed to realise that the actual available supply with potential restoration was far greater. The high prices then bring all the old bangers out of sheds, and pop goes the market. It is the same with any antique you care to mention.
Now the buyers are more sophisticated, and so is both the market and the support industry. People are much more likely to understand clearly what they are buying - even given some of the debates about what is or is not a genuine car such as one or two of our comrades were having a while back about C and D Type Jags. Yes, the rising generation may not have the hankering for a vintage Bentley that so appealed to the likes of Ian Fleming. But there are enthusiasts, and an increasing and ever wealthier number of them, so I would predict a steady appreciation of truly rare and fine cars.
I would however advise extreme caution over taking part in sudden mad bidding wars and increases in car values - because there is always something else out there and often something better, and the smart money realises that. And the cost of restoration in most cases still exceeds the value of the finished vehicle. Anything more than a steady appreciation is an invitation to disaster.
Now the buyers are more sophisticated, and so is both the market and the support industry. People are much more likely to understand clearly what they are buying - even given some of the debates about what is or is not a genuine car such as one or two of our comrades were having a while back about C and D Type Jags. Yes, the rising generation may not have the hankering for a vintage Bentley that so appealed to the likes of Ian Fleming. But there are enthusiasts, and an increasing and ever wealthier number of them, so I would predict a steady appreciation of truly rare and fine cars.
I would however advise extreme caution over taking part in sudden mad bidding wars and increases in car values - because there is always something else out there and often something better, and the smart money realises that. And the cost of restoration in most cases still exceeds the value of the finished vehicle. Anything more than a steady appreciation is an invitation to disaster.
I can see prices going up as enthusiasts in China/middle east/India/Russia and other emerging markets switch on to classic cars, if for no other reason then exclusivity. There is only a limited number of these cars about, more buyers means they get rarer, hence higher values. I recently read about a classic car event in Dubai (yesterdays cars on tomorrows roads or something?) and they had twice as many cars this year as last year.
Conversely as modern cars become increasingly sterile and the driver experience being hidden behind more and more flattering electronic gizmos, the gulf between moderns and classics grows and so potentially a new group of buyers may join the ranks. Those who seek the experience of driving a classic car so that they can feel what it is like to be in charge themselves and not to be nannied all the time.
I can see exactly what the OP is getting at here. There has been no real increase in the values of such staples as 7's or Y's for 30 years, and MGB's have fallen tremendously. Yet we now regularly see £40k RS Cosworths for sale that were £15k just a couple of years ago (I'm quite suspicious of whether they ever sell close to this though) and 5 Turbos in the late £20's where they were £12k 2 or 3 years ago. Certainly, as new money reaches the market, it tends to be drawn towards just what Dad drove (Why else would anyone pay good money for an Allegro or MK3 Cortina for instance?), or the drivers icons. So whilst an Integrale, GTA, Golf GTi Mk1, 5 Gordini or such like is probably getting close to their maximum value, perhaps the smart money ought to be sourcing cars like the Impreza and Clio V6's? Just a thought.
Plug550 said:
I can see exactly what the OP is getting at here. There has been no real increase in the values of such staples as 7's or Y's for 30 years, and MGB's have fallen tremendously. Yet we now regularly see £40k RS Cosworths for sale that were £15k just a couple of years ago (I'm quite suspicious of whether they ever sell close to this though) and 5 Turbos in the late £20's where they were £12k 2 or 3 years ago. Certainly, as new money reaches the market, it tends to be drawn towards just what Dad drove (Why else would anyone pay good money for an Allegro or MK3 Cortina for instance?), or the drivers icons. So whilst an Integrale, GTA, Golf GTi Mk1, 5 Gordini or such like is probably getting close to their maximum value, perhaps the smart money ought to be sourcing cars like the Impreza and Clio V6's? Just a thought.
I think this is about right, although there are oodles of imprezas around so little scarcity value. I guess as they get barried up that will change for original examples.I clicked on this thread thinking it was a general comment on prices. Sorting through some old Classic and Sportscar magazines the other week, it struck me how much prices in general had gone up and that we may due a correction, particularly if interest rates go up and people have less disposal income/need to get rid of assets to keep their homes.
Values certainly have gone up.
Interest rates could well have a further impact of pricing. The classic car dealers I've spoken too comment that some people are buying classic cars but there is no benefit putting money in banks. When interest rates are low people are less inclined invest. Sadly many of these people are looking at classics as a way to make money.
Interest rates could well have a further impact of pricing. The classic car dealers I've spoken too comment that some people are buying classic cars but there is no benefit putting money in banks. When interest rates are low people are less inclined invest. Sadly many of these people are looking at classics as a way to make money.
A market is a market - it rises and it falls, like any other. We had a classic car boom in the 1960s, then at the end of the 80s and now, as A8HEX has intimated, it is fuelled by low interest rates. Some cars are almost bullet proof, like the 250 GTO and the Bugatti Royale, but elsewhere things do seem to be getting out of proportion. When I see a Ford Escort for sale at £45,000 I start to wonder what on earth is happening. In my own domain a I bought two Lynx D-types in the last 10 years, one at £50,000 and the last at £65,000 but four years ago. Now there are two Lynx-Ds on the market at £200,000 each.
I think there must and will be a correction and that if you anyone hesitating, then sell. It will only take a rise in interest rates, which is predicted for the New Year, to make financing cars expensive and leave little or no profit for the speculators.
And don't think your own particular cars are exempt from this; A Sunbeam Tiger was £16,000 three years back, and is now around £40,000. There's even a Frogeye Sprite on the market a £17,750 and Mini Cooper at £22,000 FFS, both roughly double the price of a couple of years back.
I think there must and will be a correction and that if you anyone hesitating, then sell. It will only take a rise in interest rates, which is predicted for the New Year, to make financing cars expensive and leave little or no profit for the speculators.
And don't think your own particular cars are exempt from this; A Sunbeam Tiger was £16,000 three years back, and is now around £40,000. There's even a Frogeye Sprite on the market a £17,750 and Mini Cooper at £22,000 FFS, both roughly double the price of a couple of years back.
Wise advice, and I'm sure your money is safe in the Lynx D-Types!
I have owned a few classics, such as a V12 E, a TR4A and a TR5, not to mention a Bentley T2 currently. I have never lost money on a classic car, and that is enough to keep me happy. People who expect more are often in for a surprise, just like in the house market.
I have owned a few classics, such as a V12 E, a TR4A and a TR5, not to mention a Bentley T2 currently. I have never lost money on a classic car, and that is enough to keep me happy. People who expect more are often in for a surprise, just like in the house market.
The risk is generalising a market that includes the most exotic end of the classic car game - which is of acedemic interest only to me! - along with popular cars which are really just old but we still like to call classics.
I have often pondered the OP's proposition in context of whether the classic car hobby has a future at all, but when you regard the current interest in 80's stuff you would have to conclude that it has.
I began with classic cars as soon as the term was invented. I just started to call the banger I was driving at the time a 'classic' and went from there. That would have been in the 70's.
If you disregard the exotics, the price hikes in the late 80's and hypes like MK11 Escorts then popular classics are steadily appreciating assets and will likely remain so. Sound investments probably not, but there will always be the odd gamble that pays off. Lets buy a shedload of MK3 Escorts then!
Even my old 100e has doubled in value in the lsat couple of years which justifies the modest expenditure of keeping it going. Makes for a cheap hobby and I am satisfied with that.
I still can't imagine a time when Yaris' and Focii turn up at classic shows but one day somebody will love them.
I have often pondered the OP's proposition in context of whether the classic car hobby has a future at all, but when you regard the current interest in 80's stuff you would have to conclude that it has.
I began with classic cars as soon as the term was invented. I just started to call the banger I was driving at the time a 'classic' and went from there. That would have been in the 70's.
If you disregard the exotics, the price hikes in the late 80's and hypes like MK11 Escorts then popular classics are steadily appreciating assets and will likely remain so. Sound investments probably not, but there will always be the odd gamble that pays off. Lets buy a shedload of MK3 Escorts then!
Even my old 100e has doubled in value in the lsat couple of years which justifies the modest expenditure of keeping it going. Makes for a cheap hobby and I am satisfied with that.
I still can't imagine a time when Yaris' and Focii turn up at classic shows but one day somebody will love them.
In case anyone misinterpreted my last post, I hasten to add that I am a dyed-in-the-wool and diehard enthusiast, not in it for the money. If I was I'd have sold the E-type in 1989 when I was offered £75,000 for it! Also, the two Lynx cars mentioned are not selling because even the market of today won't stand for that level of profiteering. They also have for sale a Lynx XKSS at an eye-watering £300,000, and I turned one down three years back at £125,000 because it was "far too dear". Nevertheless, they have had offers close to £250,000 just the same. A fool and his money is the expression that comes to mind here, especially since Lynx will build you a new one cheaper!
But to return to the premise that as we get older the interest in the older cars is decreasing; certainly not in the case of the ERA mentioned or such exotica as that, but when I was at the Barratt Jackson auctions in Phoenix they did intimate that there is less interest in the more mundane pre-war americana but that post war cars are flying off the shelf. We in our 60s are of that era but not perhaps so interested in the pre-war cars whereas our parents were. However, the VSCC seems to thrive and doesn't seem to lack for members, their events are well supported (Prescott hill climb just to mention one) and there are a number of youthful faces to be seen at the wheel there.
Frankly, the value of my cars doesn't really interest me as long as I have the health and wherewithal to run them. Likewise, I hope that those youthful (to me) faces I see in pre-war cars will form a new wave of people passionate about our heritage.
But to return to the premise that as we get older the interest in the older cars is decreasing; certainly not in the case of the ERA mentioned or such exotica as that, but when I was at the Barratt Jackson auctions in Phoenix they did intimate that there is less interest in the more mundane pre-war americana but that post war cars are flying off the shelf. We in our 60s are of that era but not perhaps so interested in the pre-war cars whereas our parents were. However, the VSCC seems to thrive and doesn't seem to lack for members, their events are well supported (Prescott hill climb just to mention one) and there are a number of youthful faces to be seen at the wheel there.
Frankly, the value of my cars doesn't really interest me as long as I have the health and wherewithal to run them. Likewise, I hope that those youthful (to me) faces I see in pre-war cars will form a new wave of people passionate about our heritage.
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