Is the classic car bubble finally deflating?

[DegsyE39]

I've been looking at auction results a lot this summer as hopefully next year i will be in the position to get something a little fruitier than my current mk4 golf... One thing that strikes me jeez where has the momentum gone, surely dealers have to stop touting this 'investment potential blue chip' crap

Seems like some prices are back at 2016 levels but then you'll see an e36 318is and its 5 grand, strange times! would love to know the opinions of some of the very knowledgeable classic fans/owners on this part of the forum!

Cheers!

[blue_haddock]

Some prices have deflated but then others are still in cuckoo land, especially in the category of modern classics.

[VeeReihenmotor6]

Prices of general classic/modern classic cars that have actually sold has gone down, eroding all if not most of the covid gains. This is great news for enthusiasts as we can get back into the cars we love for sensible money.

Unique and special (special edition or just special) cars still hold strong, as always, but those that bought "any old" classic at an inflated price will have a sore head come sale. We are in a market where that message has not settled in though so you see cars advertised for all sorts of prices.

My advice would be to tag/flag/star the ones you like and keep an eye. Even if they go off market they may not be sold. Some sellers give up before they succumb to lowering the price thinking it is the time of year, not enough sun out, planets might align etc etc so used this site https://www.checkcardetails.co.uk/mot-check to check whether the V5 actually changes hands (rarely does I have found and i've watched at least 50 cars i liked over the last 12 months).

[Hoofy]

There's a higher mileage F360 for £42k. 2 years ago, the seller would have been asking £62k.

[politeperson]

Much of the "modern classic" stuff is dishwater dull to me.
Just because you have happy memories of sitting in the back of you dads work car when you were a kid does not make it an interesting investment long term. Still worth buying though just for fun.
Classic, like the phrase "awesome", is a very misused term.
"Classics" that are just old modern cars are just that- old modern cars!
To me, the modern car started in the early 90's with a wide wheel track, squarish profile tyres, efficient overhead cam engines with fuel injection, crash protection, a lack of chrome and 80mph at 2,000 rpm all day long.
Since then, apart from SUVs, it has mostly been variations on a theme.
In fact I would say "peak car" as a functional item was probably in the early 2000s with the modern 2.0l turbo diesel. Something like an Audi A3 1.9tdi 130bhp. Great cars but not collector cars.
Have new cars got any better? Maybe a silly big screen to distract you in the dashboard, but really its the same formula that's been around for 25 years or so. It works brilliantly.
With proper collector cars, the good stuff mainly holds its value, like any other market. These are cars whose main function is not transport people but as a way to hold wealth or enjoy.

I wanted this the other day at auction guided at £90k.
It went for around £150k! I got well and truly blown out of the water, even though it needed loads of work.

I would say the market has become more selective, but it is still strong for the right cars.

[sortedcossie]

politeperson said:

Much of the "modern classic" stuff is dishwater dull to me.

With proper collector cars, the good stuff mainly holds its value, like any other market. These are cars whose main function is not transport people but as a way to hold wealth or enjoy.

This sums up what I was thinking ^^

[Skyedriver]

While I have a "modern classic" that's value is about 2/3s of what I paid two year ago, I'm in the market for something else and have a sort of shortlist of possibles but I'm aware that 6 month down the line I may be able to get the same car several £££ cheaper allowing me cash to add/renovate etc.
Like a few who have already posted here I've seen some vehicles sit on the ads for sale for months, I never know whether it's worth "insulting" the seller with a substantially lower offer than what they think the car is worth or just leaving it for sale. Guess there's nothing wasted in making an offer.
For some sellers they need to sell to either fund another purchase or simply to clear out unwanted vehicles. For Dealers it's different, they maybe bought in at £*** and can't sell at less than that. On the other hand, they could take the hit and then buy new stock. I'm no dealer so don't know the ins and out of that.
Of course it only needs one person to pay the over inflated price and off the market goes for that particular model.
For the moment, I'm watching. Auction reserves being lowered near the end of the auction, stuff for sale for ages.

[Yertis]

VeeReihenmotor6 said:

https://www.checkcardetails.co.uk/mot-check

I just made the mistake of putting my two owner from new inc me, low mileage and completely orginal Quattro into that site to find a big red banner saying the mileage has been reduced by 30,000 odd miles and that it has 'serious issues'. FFS. Completely untrue. When I bought it I had it MoTd (which it failed on a bunch of stuff, hardly driven previous ten years) and obviously in the course of that some monkey hit the button that switches MPH to KPH (to be fair easily done on a Quattro) so when it was next MoT's it showed plus 1.6 times whatever was there before. Then MoT'd again shortly after having been switched back to MPH, so mileage apparently up and down by 30,000 mies in less than a month.

I've been in touch with DVLA about this previously but they basically said "tough st".

[Turbobanana]

Skyedriver said:

While I have a "modern classic" that's value is about 2/3s of what I paid two year ago, I'm in the market for something else and have a sort of shortlist of possibles but I'm aware that 6 month down the line I may be able to get the same car several £££ cheaper allowing me cash to add/renovate etc.
Like a few who have already posted here I've seen some vehicles sit on the ads for sale for months, I never know whether it's worth "insulting" the seller with a substantially lower offer than what they think the car is worth or just leaving it for sale. Guess there's nothing wasted in making an offer.
For some sellers they need to sell to either fund another purchase or simply to clear out unwanted vehicles. For Dealers it's different, they maybe bought in at £*** and can't sell at less than that. On the other hand, they could take the hit and then buy new stock. I'm no dealer so don't know the ins and out of that.
Of course it only needs one person to pay the over inflated price and off the market goes for that particular model.
For the moment, I'm watching. Auction reserves being lowered near the end of the auction, stuff for sale for ages.

I'm in this situation at the moment.

My GT6 has been on Car & Classic since June, at what I know is an ambitious price. I haven't had a single enquiry, not even a low ball cheeky offer. If someone bid me £3000 less than the asking price now, I'd take it. I'm on holiday until after the bank holiday so not much point doing anything until then, but my inclination is to reduce it and if it doesn't sell by the end of September I'll keep it and improve it over winter. I guess that's the benefit of it not being a forced sale.

When I was in the trade, if a car had sat for a while our view was that the first opportunity to make a profit/ break even was to be taken. Move the money into more desirable stock.

[POORCARDEALER]

Market has been poor for an about a year now, deadlock , owners wanting Covid money, buyers keeping hands in pockets as they know stuff is dropping/going to drop.

Spoke to an auctioneer at one of the leading auction houses this afternoon - quote “the very best stuff is still surprising us, but the average cars are not doing average money, they are way below or not getting bids.

[aeropilot]

POORCARDEALER said:

Market has been poor for an about a year now, deadlock , owners wanting Covid money, buyers keeping hands in pockets as they know stuff is dropping/going to drop.

Spoke to an auctioneer at one of the leading auction houses this afternoon - quote “the very best stuff is still surprising us, but the average cars are not doing average money, they are way below or not getting bids.

Yep.
I know someone that was recently offered one of those "the very best stuff is still surprising us" prices for his car by a foreign buyer (car is in that very best category) and wasn't even for sale, guy came up to him at show and said "I want to buy that, I'll give you xx", with the xx price being about 50% more than what he ever thought it would sell for if he had to sell it.

[Nick Forest]

It’s definitely a buyers market right now for 90% of the stuff that’s out there.

I’ve had a number of classics over the last 15 years and always bought the cars I really wanted to own.

All bought on the basis that I’ll be lucky to break even and never bought on the basis of speculation.

I’ve yet to be disappointed…

[DegsyE39]

Thanks for all the insights lads some very interesting stuff! I do have a vested interest but my budget will be about 3k next summer..

Agree with the posters saying the very best stuff going mad! very strange times..

[Whatever123]

POORCARDEALER said:

Market has been poor for an about a year now, deadlock , owners wanting Covid money, buyers keeping hands in pockets as they know stuff is dropping/going to drop.

Spoke to an auctioneer at one of the leading auction houses this afternoon - quote “the very best stuff is still surprising us, but the average cars are not doing average money, they are way below or not getting bids.

Just achieved way more than expected for our ‘68’ 280se cabriolet, but i guess that is ‘the very best stuff’ ??

[dbdb]

Yertis said:

VeeReihenmotor6 said:

https://www.checkcardetails.co.uk/mot-check

I just made the mistake of putting my two owner from new inc me, low mileage and completely orginal Quattro into that site to find a big red banner saying the mileage has been reduced by 30,000 odd miles and that it has 'serious issues'. FFS. Completely untrue. When I bought it I had it MoTd (which it failed on a bunch of stuff, hardly driven previous ten years) and obviously in the course of that some monkey hit the button that switches MPH to KPH (to be fair easily done on a Quattro) so when it was next MoT's it showed plus 1.6 times whatever was there before. Then MoT'd again shortly after having been switched back to MPH, so mileage apparently up and down by 30,000 mies in less than a month.

I've been in touch with DVLA about this previously but they basically said "tough st".

My Jag comes up as having had the mileage reduced by 90,000 miles in January 2009. Not true either. Somehow the DVLA managed to amalgamate my car's history with something else entirely and add an entirely spurious MOT fail to it. I owned the car at the time: it didn't fail its MOT (and the current mileage, still only 100,000 is accurate, it has never been reduced).

I received the same response from the DVLA as you - basically, tough st. It makes me wonder how many mistakes that database contains, they certainly had no interest in correcting it.

[dbdb]

Whatever123 said:

Just achieved way more than expected for our ‘68’ 280se cabriolet, but i guess that is ‘the very best stuff’ ??

It is!

[Doofus]

DegsyE39 said:

I've been looking at auction results a lot this summer as hopefully next year i will be in the position to get something a little fruitier than my current mk4 golf... One thing that strikes me jeez where has the momentum gone, surely dealers have to stop touting this 'investment potential blue chip' crap

Seems like some prices are back at 2016 levels but then you'll see an e36 318is and its 5 grand, strange times! would love to know the opinions of some of the very knowledgeable classic fans/owners on this part of the forum!

Cheers!

That 318 is extremely low mileage, and everything else you've said is subjective at best.

[politeperson]

DegsyE39 said:

Thanks for all the insights lads some very interesting stuff! I do have a vested interest but my budget will be about 3k next summer..

Agree with the posters saying the very best stuff going mad! very strange times..

Degsy,

I was just looking at my trade buyers listings to get some Idea what £3k or less will get you.

£3k is an interesting budget. I would be looking at interesting cars/sports cars at the bottom of their depreciation curve that you can enjoy and they would become more interesting and valuable as each year goes by.

They have to be affordable to run, be able to get you somewhere and not be boring. Maybe my Series Land Rover fails on a couple of these points!

I put myself in the position of buying a Porsche 356 in 1970. No one wanted them them, the attrition rate became huge as they were scrapped and now look at the values, they are sky high.

The only rule is buy the best example you can find of course.

For what it is worth, my recommendations of excellent interesting cars, that are unappreciated by the market in 2024 are -


Audi TT MK1 225 Quattro
Early new shape Beetle (the market has totally forgotten about the storm they created in the UK in 1999 in their release)
Fiat Panda 4x4
BMW Z3
BMW Z4
Series Land Rover (if you dont want to go very far from home)
Mercedes CLK
Porsche Boxster
Mazda MX5
Audi A2
Early Mini Cooper

[POORCARDEALER]

Whatever123 said:

Just achieved way more than expected for our ‘68’ 280se cabriolet, but i guess that is ‘the very best stuff’ ??

Absolutely- fantastic cars

[DegsyE39]

politeperson said:

DegsyE39 said:

Thanks for all the insights lads some very interesting stuff! I do have a vested interest but my budget will be about 3k next summer..

Agree with the posters saying the very best stuff going mad! very strange times..

Degsy,

I was just looking at my trade buyers listings to get some Idea what £3k or less will get you.

£3k is an interesting budget. I would be looking at interesting cars/sports cars at the bottom of their depreciation curve that you can enjoy and they would become more interesting and valuable as each year goes by.

They have to be affordable to run, be able to get you somewhere and not be boring. Maybe my Series Land Rover fails on a couple of these points!

I put myself in the position of buying a Porsche 356 in 1970. No one wanted them them, the attrition rate became huge as they were scrapped and now look at the values, they are sky high.

The only rule is buy the best example you can find of course.

For what it is worth, my recommendations of excellent interesting cars, that are unappreciated by the market in 2024 are -


Audi TT MK1 225 Quattro
Early new shape Beetle (the market has totally forgotten about the storm they created in the UK in 1999 in their release)
Fiat Panda 4x4
BMW Z3
BMW Z4
Series Land Rover (if you dont want to go very far from home)
Mercedes CLK
Porsche Boxster
Mazda MX5
Audi A2
Early Mini Cooper

Politeperson i think the z3 is a very good shout i miss that era of bmw so much, great engines gearboxes and styling also i've driven a z4 and thats something i would consider..

Cars i've been watching and will probably try get into next year are.. ahem

Chevrolet caprice classic box style
Chevrolet caprice jellymould style
Third gen camaro
Fourth gen mustang
Buick park ave with the 3800 v6 (stop sniggering)


And on the european side of things.. Alfa spider or an older saab 900

Cheers!