Brightwell's auction today
Discussion
Loads not getting anywhere near reserve, some real bargains if they sold. I'm going to ACA next month, it could be interesting.
https://www.brightwells.com/timed-sale/5375
https://www.brightwells.com/timed-sale/5375
Watched some of the MP auction.
The RS1600i Estimate about £25K IIRC, reached about £15K?
An MG TF from the 1950's - no bids and he started at £8k!
But a few exceeded estimates.
It was very difficult to decide whether estimates had been lowered from previous auctions or not and of course condition is everything and again I couldn't establish if the car was great or a dog.
MP buyer fees are a bit on the high side which buyers will be taking into account.
The RS1600i Estimate about £25K IIRC, reached about £15K?
An MG TF from the 1950's - no bids and he started at £8k!
But a few exceeded estimates.
It was very difficult to decide whether estimates had been lowered from previous auctions or not and of course condition is everything and again I couldn't establish if the car was great or a dog.
MP buyer fees are a bit on the high side which buyers will be taking into account.
rovermorris999 said:
Lots unsold here too
https://bid.manorparkclassics.com/auctions/live-sa...
They were marking all the provisional sales as unsold on the lot listings. I watched some of it, and a few were way under the guide / reserve (which seemed to be just above the bottom of the guides) and will not doubt not sell, and yes, several were passed altogether.https://bid.manorparkclassics.com/auctions/live-sa...
The classic car auctions seem to be struggling to get 60% sale completions since the summer when it used to be 80% plus the last few years.
I have a theory.
For the past few years, with interest rates very low, buying a classic as an investment (any classic...) could be, and often was a money spinner. An investor could buy a classic, give it a quick blow-over with modern paint, and sell to another investor..who will re-trim the interior and sell to another investor, who will...
But now, with interest rates where they are, most of those non-enthusiast buyers need to sell, there arent the number of real enthusiasts (ie those who will buy because they want a car, and will pay a fair price for their one and only car) are thin on the ground. Probably the same numbers as they always have been.
They are starting to get their fingers burnt. There is a lot of overpriced "investment" dross which are now in the market, all chasing too few buyers as the speculators are moving out.
I've been watching the prices of E30 BMW convertibles for the past few months. Those prices under £10k tend to sell. Those priced over (even trying to get £20K or even £30k) have not sold... and are still for sale since this time last year. They wont sell either, at their price. Yes "the market" says a good E30 cab is £20k. It isn't. They aren't.
There is a 250GTO in an auction next month (3765LM) which, no doubt will break records and be used by many to say "see... classics are still blue chip investments.." and the likes of Octane magazine will bully the hammer price, but for the majority of classics, they aren't investments anymore.
Cue a glut of poorly restored, overly-shiny classics hitting the classifieds in the next 12 months, prices becoming depressed. The real losers, as always, are the true enthusiasts who can no longer but they cars they wish to cherish. Too many over-shiny cars chasing too few real enthusiasts. Once the investment value is lost, the investors will move onto something else. An investor selling to another investor just wont be happening. They need to sell to an enthusiasts, or at least someone who doesn't understand the real value and will go on whatever the car magazines tell then the car is "worth". And with more cars chasing too few enthusiasts, cars just wont be selling. Which will drive prices down further.
It will hurt real enthusiasts, and the specialists suppliers/garages who have catered for the investors. the investors, of course will be fine. Dont worry about them. We'll soon see a Morris Marina advertised as "ideal for Goodwood, mille miglia, Le mans etc" !!
...But its just my theory. Its not like the late 80s/early 90s afterall...
For the past few years, with interest rates very low, buying a classic as an investment (any classic...) could be, and often was a money spinner. An investor could buy a classic, give it a quick blow-over with modern paint, and sell to another investor..who will re-trim the interior and sell to another investor, who will...
But now, with interest rates where they are, most of those non-enthusiast buyers need to sell, there arent the number of real enthusiasts (ie those who will buy because they want a car, and will pay a fair price for their one and only car) are thin on the ground. Probably the same numbers as they always have been.
They are starting to get their fingers burnt. There is a lot of overpriced "investment" dross which are now in the market, all chasing too few buyers as the speculators are moving out.
I've been watching the prices of E30 BMW convertibles for the past few months. Those prices under £10k tend to sell. Those priced over (even trying to get £20K or even £30k) have not sold... and are still for sale since this time last year. They wont sell either, at their price. Yes "the market" says a good E30 cab is £20k. It isn't. They aren't.
There is a 250GTO in an auction next month (3765LM) which, no doubt will break records and be used by many to say "see... classics are still blue chip investments.." and the likes of Octane magazine will bully the hammer price, but for the majority of classics, they aren't investments anymore.
Cue a glut of poorly restored, overly-shiny classics hitting the classifieds in the next 12 months, prices becoming depressed. The real losers, as always, are the true enthusiasts who can no longer but they cars they wish to cherish. Too many over-shiny cars chasing too few real enthusiasts. Once the investment value is lost, the investors will move onto something else. An investor selling to another investor just wont be happening. They need to sell to an enthusiasts, or at least someone who doesn't understand the real value and will go on whatever the car magazines tell then the car is "worth". And with more cars chasing too few enthusiasts, cars just wont be selling. Which will drive prices down further.
It will hurt real enthusiasts, and the specialists suppliers/garages who have catered for the investors. the investors, of course will be fine. Dont worry about them. We'll soon see a Morris Marina advertised as "ideal for Goodwood, mille miglia, Le mans etc" !!
...But its just my theory. Its not like the late 80s/early 90s afterall...
williamp said:
I have a theory.
.
I think you may be right. Adding to the issue is the age of the enthusiasts, fewer every year unfortunately. Sure, some clubs/marques have a decent young following but go to any club meeting or show and it's predominately grey or no hair. There's quite a strong following for 80's/90's/early 2000's 'retro' cars among 30-60 year-olds but from what I can see cars generally don't seem to be of as much interest to teens and twenties as they were when I was that age..
However, that's more a long term thing, (except perhaps in the prewar market which seems particularly hit now), the current situation is down to the 'investment' bubble bursting. I don't think sellers, both private and trade, have cottoned on, asking prices in adverts haven't yet come into line with what is happening at auction.
The caveat is as always, to quote the sage Yogi Berra, 'predictions are difficult to make, especially about the future'.
Paul Cowland at Manor Park did a bit to camera yesterday about getting finance to buy a classic. 
I guess he's a director or similar of this company in Runcorn and maybe also gets a commission on finance applications?
This was commonplace at classic car auctions like CCA 10 years ago, offering finance on site to people to 'invest' in a classic car, after all you couldn't lose.....
ACA often have a wide choice, I've bought there twice. I've had a fair few classics myself over the years but I want to buy and drive them, maybe spruce them up a bit more, but I'd agree, many are now overpriced. E-types, for example, the classic 'rare' car (which isn't, there's 4k of them about somewhere) have been falling in sale values for over a year now. Even Morris Minors struggle to get to where they were 2-3 years ago
I guess he's a director or similar of this company in Runcorn and maybe also gets a commission on finance applications? This was commonplace at classic car auctions like CCA 10 years ago, offering finance on site to people to 'invest' in a classic car, after all you couldn't lose.....
ACA often have a wide choice, I've bought there twice. I've had a fair few classics myself over the years but I want to buy and drive them, maybe spruce them up a bit more, but I'd agree, many are now overpriced. E-types, for example, the classic 'rare' car (which isn't, there's 4k of them about somewhere) have been falling in sale values for over a year now. Even Morris Minors struggle to get to where they were 2-3 years ago
rovermorris999 said:
williamp said:
I have a theory.
.
I think you may be right. Adding to the issue is the age of the enthusiasts, fewer every year unfortunately. Sure, some clubs/marques have a decent young following but go to any club meeting or show and it's predominately grey or no hair. There's quite a strong following for 80's/90's/early 2000's 'retro' cars among 30-60 year-olds but from what I can see cars generally don't seem to be of as much interest to teens and twenties as they were when I was that age..
However, that's more a long term thing, (except perhaps in the prewar market which seems particularly hit now), the current situation is down to the 'investment' bubble bursting. I don't think sellers, both private and trade, have cottoned on, asking prices in adverts haven't yet come into line with what is happening at auction.
The caveat is as always, to quote the sage Yogi Berra, 'predictions are difficult to make, especially about the future'.
The occasional blip at the loony end of the market still occurs, but the £500k RS500, the £700k Escort and the $140m Merc can't possibly have been bought on the assumption that they would increase in value. Nor have the Sierra and Escort dragged up values of similar cars. More indicative are the huge losses that some sellers have incurred over the past few years. JLR famously took a bath on the James Hull collection, and the ex-Steve McQueen Ferrari 275 that sold for $10m in 2014 was knocked down at $5m a few months ago. I don't know if anyone in the trade keeps track of such a metric, but that must be in the running for the biggest loss made on a single car ever.
As belts are now tightening thE other thing potentially getting in the way of sales is the size of the auction house commission.
I was a bidder on a car at H&H in September. My bid was £22k but with fees it made it a £25k car which was all of its money.
The vendor wanted £26k for it, which would have made it a £30k with fees which was too much.
Vendors need to include the fees in their reserve thinking as people are being more careful with money.
I was a bidder on a car at H&H in September. My bid was £22k but with fees it made it a £25k car which was all of its money.
The vendor wanted £26k for it, which would have made it a £30k with fees which was too much.
Vendors need to include the fees in their reserve thinking as people are being more careful with money.
Would agree with some of the comments above.
Auction House fees for buyers can be very high (12%+VAT) although some only have fees for sellers which I feel more appropriate.
Cars from the 50's and older are really struggling, an MG TF at MP didn't get a single bid, even starting at £8K!
There again a Ford RS1600i, needing tidying IIRC struggled to reach about £15K +fees but had what I assume was a totally unrealistic reserve. Estimate was about £25K IIRC
Yes investors will possibly to sell for what they paid, real enthusiasts will win in the end as long as they wait for prices to drop.
I was in talks a few days ago with a dealer of a specific marque who said prices had fallen but were rising again - I beg to differ and yesterdays two auctions would concur with my own thoughts.
There are people who are buying pre 1983 cars purely to avoid VED & MoT costs. A great idea but there's some absolute rubbish out there that will soon be sold as a project or breaking for spares as they become unreliable.
Auction House fees for buyers can be very high (12%+VAT) although some only have fees for sellers which I feel more appropriate.
Cars from the 50's and older are really struggling, an MG TF at MP didn't get a single bid, even starting at £8K!
There again a Ford RS1600i, needing tidying IIRC struggled to reach about £15K +fees but had what I assume was a totally unrealistic reserve. Estimate was about £25K IIRC
Yes investors will possibly to sell for what they paid, real enthusiasts will win in the end as long as they wait for prices to drop.
I was in talks a few days ago with a dealer of a specific marque who said prices had fallen but were rising again - I beg to differ and yesterdays two auctions would concur with my own thoughts.
There are people who are buying pre 1983 cars purely to avoid VED & MoT costs. A great idea but there's some absolute rubbish out there that will soon be sold as a project or breaking for spares as they become unreliable.
GoodOlBoy said:
What percentage of classic cars sold are bought by investors ? I'd take a guess at 5%.
Times are tough, classic cars are a luxury. I think it's that simple.
That's my theory.
I think the price rises in the past few years were a function of low interest rates so many people were looking for somewhere interesting to park money and with prices rising strongly it seemed like a decent bet. So perhaps not investors in the traditional sense but not dyed in the wool enthusiasts either. As you say, even for enthusiasts they are a luxury so when times are hard off they go and down come the prices thanks to supply and demand. A much needed correction in my view, I can't get my head round what was being asked (and got) for very mundane cars in average condition.Times are tough, classic cars are a luxury. I think it's that simple.
That's my theory.
rovermorris999 said:
I think you may be right. Adding to the issue is the age of the enthusiasts, fewer every year unfortunately. Sure, some clubs/marques have a decent young following but go to any club meeting or show and it's predominately grey or no hair. There's quite a strong following for 80's/90's/early 2000's 'retro' cars among 30-60 year-olds but from what I can see cars generally don't seem to be of as much interest to teens and twenties as they were when I was that age.
I am a car enthusiast aged 55: cars have always been my "thing" from an early age (my first word was "car"!). I have 2 sons, 16 and 11.The 11 year old couldn't care less about cars - fair enough, can't win 'em all
The 16 year old loves old cars but isn't as knowledgeable about them as I was at his age. He'd never want to get his hands dirty working on one. I do wonder whether his love for them is "virtual", as he "drives" old stuff on his driving game all the time.
Perhaps that's where the future is going: admiration for a line, appreciation of the sound, but no physical contact.
My friend’s son wants to be a mechanic when he leaves school … he’s 15 atm. I think he has this idea you’re in a centrally-heated space working with new tools and nice shiny bits like they do on an F1 car. I said to my mate to buy an old Minor and rebuild it over the winter in his unseated garage and then see whether he’s as keen on the mechanic idea in the spring… chances are he won’t be.
Kids, eh?
ACA have some decent, more basic classics than some of the other auction houses … always a good day out!
Kids, eh?
ACA have some decent, more basic classics than some of the other auction houses … always a good day out!
uk66fastback said:
My friend’s son wants to be a mechanic when he leaves school … he’s 15 atm. I think he has this idea you’re in a centrally-heated space working with new tools and nice shiny bits like they do on an F1 car. I said to my mate to buy an old Minor and rebuild it over the winter in his unseated garage and then see whether he’s as keen on the mechanic idea in the spring… chances are he won’t be.
Kids, eh?
ACA have some decent, more basic classics than some of the other auction houses … always a good day out!
I wanted to be a mechanic also when I left school,a weird twist of events put a stop to that so ended up in construction but worked out pretty well.Kids, eh?
ACA have some decent, more basic classics than some of the other auction houses … always a good day out!
Thing is when I speak to mechanics they always say I dodged a bullet but I don’t think I would have seen it like that not if you genuinely enjoy doing something,who knows..!!
What the 'investors' forgot is that its quite expensive to store cars indoors unless you have your own big garage, I have 10 classics and its close on 1k month to pay for storage, thats a lot for a falling asset!
I should have collected nice watches, you can get a lot of those in a drawer at home!
I should have collected nice watches, you can get a lot of those in a drawer at home!
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