What's going to be the next DB4 ?
Discussion
So after chatting with my neighbour it got me thinking he Is abbot 65 ish and used to have a db4 gt and its the only car he regrets selling, probably could afford another one but it would be a push.
It got me thinking being 40 next year what will be the DB 4 of our generation and what should buy to keep now ?
Hope that makes sense
Phib
It got me thinking being 40 next year what will be the DB 4 of our generation and what should buy to keep now ?
Hope that makes sense
Phib
I don't think there will be one, but surely I'll be proven wrong long after I am dead. Cars in the 1960's were just that - cars; they only became collectors items later, and the market peaked in 1990 and many people got their fingers burned, as I feel (after talking to a few dealers for an article recently) they will shortly.
I come to this conclusion for various reasons, not for electronic parts which I am sure some 14 yr old will make for us in his bedroom when we need them, but social and also economic ones. There will come the day, sadly, when pollution and classic cars will collide head on, we will be allowed - as already has happened to some extent in Germany - to use our cars when "they" dictate and not when we want. In the Black Forest motor bikes are now banned on Sundays for example. Petrol will be at £3 a litre too.
There will be exceptions to this rule, and the Sultan of Brunei couldn't give a tinker's cuss since it's his country and so what the hell, so Paganis, McLarens and so on will form part of his collection, but for us "ordinary" people? I'm not sure we'll have the right to get them out on public roads. There again, even here in France for heaven's sake, we are seeing decibel controls making track days for some of us unthinkable, and this can only go further and further.
Perhaps I am the prophet of doom and gloom, perhaps I am too old (but glad to have lived the golden age of motoring), and perhaps - hopefully - I am 100% wrong, but I don't see many cars coming out today that will be the DB4GT of the future, nor the DB4 Zagato neither. They were off-the-cuff designs, with human input, not computer, and touch a sensory part that most moderns don't.
So now I'll sit back and await the criticism from you the younger elements.
I come to this conclusion for various reasons, not for electronic parts which I am sure some 14 yr old will make for us in his bedroom when we need them, but social and also economic ones. There will come the day, sadly, when pollution and classic cars will collide head on, we will be allowed - as already has happened to some extent in Germany - to use our cars when "they" dictate and not when we want. In the Black Forest motor bikes are now banned on Sundays for example. Petrol will be at £3 a litre too.
There will be exceptions to this rule, and the Sultan of Brunei couldn't give a tinker's cuss since it's his country and so what the hell, so Paganis, McLarens and so on will form part of his collection, but for us "ordinary" people? I'm not sure we'll have the right to get them out on public roads. There again, even here in France for heaven's sake, we are seeing decibel controls making track days for some of us unthinkable, and this can only go further and further.
Perhaps I am the prophet of doom and gloom, perhaps I am too old (but glad to have lived the golden age of motoring), and perhaps - hopefully - I am 100% wrong, but I don't see many cars coming out today that will be the DB4GT of the future, nor the DB4 Zagato neither. They were off-the-cuff designs, with human input, not computer, and touch a sensory part that most moderns don't.
So now I'll sit back and await the criticism from you the younger elements.
OP, I wanted to reply to your title stating, "a DB5" 
But then read Tony's reply and sadly I think Tony is right; there will come a time when the Euro-square Suits and Govt-types will really start putting the thumbscrews on us classic car guys & girls.
So will there be an equivalent DB4 of the future? I can't see one at the moment. Really there isn't one modern sports GT car out there that fits the bill - not from Europe, the U.S. or Asia; they're all just modern flying machines with too much computer-power & too many driver aids.
We have to ask ourselves will petrol be available in 40 years time to the everyday person? One can imagine petrol being replaced, hopefully, with hydrogen. Then, what are we going to do with our classics? Most likely, I won't be around in 40 years time...though I like to think I'll be whizzing around on my anti-gravity electro-magnetic zimmer surfboard-come-commode...but will those enthusiasts who'll be 30-50 years old want to buy and run a Jaguar XKR, DB Vantage or equivalent? I'm not so sure if it will be possible.
But then read Tony's reply and sadly I think Tony is right; there will come a time when the Euro-square Suits and Govt-types will really start putting the thumbscrews on us classic car guys & girls.So will there be an equivalent DB4 of the future? I can't see one at the moment. Really there isn't one modern sports GT car out there that fits the bill - not from Europe, the U.S. or Asia; they're all just modern flying machines with too much computer-power & too many driver aids.
We have to ask ourselves will petrol be available in 40 years time to the everyday person? One can imagine petrol being replaced, hopefully, with hydrogen. Then, what are we going to do with our classics? Most likely, I won't be around in 40 years time...though I like to think I'll be whizzing around on my anti-gravity electro-magnetic zimmer surfboard-come-commode...but will those enthusiasts who'll be 30-50 years old want to buy and run a Jaguar XKR, DB Vantage or equivalent? I'm not so sure if it will be possible.
The DB4 GT occupied rarefied space in it's day. The 'supercar' hadn't been invented. GTs were actually used for that purpose. Design and engineering carried more importance that profit; something which ensured cars like that weren't built in the thousands.
These days, many supercars are indeed built in small quantities, but the fact is that there are so many of them. In fifty years' time, supercars will continue to be sought after (even if it's just as ornaments, if we accept Lowdrag's pessimistic outlook), but none of them will carry the same cachet of engineering, purity of design, rarity and, perhaps most importantly, useability that something like a DB4 does today.
These days, many supercars are indeed built in small quantities, but the fact is that there are so many of them. In fifty years' time, supercars will continue to be sought after (even if it's just as ornaments, if we accept Lowdrag's pessimistic outlook
), but none of them will carry the same cachet of engineering, purity of design, rarity and, perhaps most importantly, useability that something like a DB4 does today.My 2P, is that the current cars wont be as desirable as the pre 90's cars, ignoring the practicalities of running a car with complex electronics, they have simply made far too many of them. The modern DB4 is the DB9, which they have churned out by the thousands (they are however very nice cars) and they all have the slightest hint of appliance about them.
As for the state of the market . . . . .put your fingers in your ears, because as soon as interest rates go back up, it's going to pop very loudly!
As for the state of the market . . . . .put your fingers in your ears, because as soon as interest rates go back up, it's going to pop very loudly!
Doofus said:
The DB4 GT occupied rarefied space in it's day. The 'supercar' hadn't been invented. GTs were actually used for that purpose. Design and engineering carried more importance that profit; something which ensured cars like that weren't built in the thousands.
While the term "supercar" might not have be used before the Lamborghini Miura, supercars have really always existed. Certainly in the 50s you could not only buy a front line race from most of the interested companies, there were models like the XKSS. But even the frontline sports car racers could be driven on the road, there are many modern cars that have a worse wide than a D-Type.The gap between the road cars and the track racers wasn't that wide. A DB4GT was designed to make the DB4 a more competitive race tool.
Modern supercars typically aren't going to be able to do that. You can spend well over a million on buying the latest hyped up version of a Verron and you'll still get spanked on the the track by a Caterham 7, you'd never know which way a proper track car went.
The Macca was the only, ostensibly, road car to win at Le Man's for years and nothing since has been close.
So modern super/dooper/hype cars are never going to have that cache.
Perhaps this is why there is so much interest in the rally cars, where again the successful competition cars and road cars come much closer.
v8250 said:
We have to ask ourselves will petrol be available in 40 years time to the everyday person? One can imagine petrol being replaced, hopefully, with hydrogen.
Will Hydrogen give the required energy density? (apart from it being horribly explosive)Octane and Diesel are a tough act to follow. It wouldn't surprise me if the future "green" carbon neutral solution is ... petrol ... just man made petrol rather than fossil carbon extracted petrol.
Atmospheric carbon mining (AKA, trees) being used as the raw material for synthesising the very devil incarnate we are addicted too currently. That way it will be carbon neutral.
Its just too good at its job to want to replace.
Its easy to distribute.
Huge energy density.
Less unsafe than many alternatives.
Inertia.
Efficiency (for all the improvements we are seeing in other technologies, the petrol/diesel engine is still advancing just as quickly and from a much higher starting point)
And can be made to make a damn good noise too :-)
Edited by a8hex on Monday 7th May 13:52
a8hex said:
Will Hydrogen give the required energy density? (apart from it being horribly explosive)
Octane and Diesel are a tough act to follow. It wouldn't surprise me if the future "green" carbon neutral solution is ... petrol ... just man made petrol rather than fossil carbon extracted petrol.
Atmospheric carbon mining (AKA, trees) being used as the raw material for synthesising the very devil incarnate we are addicted too currently. That way it will be carbon neutral.
Its just too good at its job to want to replace.
Its easy to distribute.
Huge energy density.
Less unsafe than many alternatives.
Inertia.
Efficiency (for all the improvements we are seeing in other technologies, the petrol/diesel engine is still advancing just as quickly and from a much higher starting point)
And can be made to make a damn good noise too :-)
I like your thinking ref' atmospheric carbon mining. The issue with this would be the polutant effect that has to be absorbed by the trees and the knock-on effect this would have to tree population and plant mutation; there have been white papaers discussing this very point.Octane and Diesel are a tough act to follow. It wouldn't surprise me if the future "green" carbon neutral solution is ... petrol ... just man made petrol rather than fossil carbon extracted petrol.
Atmospheric carbon mining (AKA, trees) being used as the raw material for synthesising the very devil incarnate we are addicted too currently. That way it will be carbon neutral.
Its just too good at its job to want to replace.
Its easy to distribute.
Huge energy density.
Less unsafe than many alternatives.
Inertia.
Efficiency (for all the improvements we are seeing in other technologies, the petrol/diesel engine is still advancing just as quickly and from a much higher starting point)
And can be made to make a damn good noise too :-)
You are right with the above points ref' petrol, but, the whole production cycle from extraction to point of combustion is just so energy intensive and therefore highly poluting. We all live in our own little bubbles when filling up at the local petrol station. It's not just the car users who are poluting but the complete supply chain.
Ref' hydrogen, it's no more volatile/explosive than LPG. There are pre-production teams out there at the moment who are producing efficient hydrogen volumes using solar gains into a 'hydrogen making machine', which in turn can be stored in LPG-type tanks. I would immediately give up petrol and diesel if I could have one of these at home knowing that the only thing coming out of the cars exhaust is H20.
As for the sound issue, I'm sure as humans we are engineeringly smart enough to get a hydrogen-powered V8 to sound similar to a petrol powered TVR or Cobra; mmmm, there'll be a market for nextgen exhaust design harmonics in the future to keep us PH'ers happy...off to drawing board
I share Ferdinand Porsche's view the future of automobiles will follow the route the Horse took. Once everyday working items seen everywhere, but nowadays used purely for sport.
This was afterall his rationale for going into sportscar production.
We'll all be driving electric/hydrogen cars for shopping/commuting etc, and the petrol engined beast will get wheeled out for special occasions at weekends.
Hopefully they'll still be allowed on public roads. Horses are afterall..
Agree that none of the modern stuff will be as collectible as past models. Complex electricals are not ideally suited for the infrequent use the future will dictate.
This was afterall his rationale for going into sportscar production.
We'll all be driving electric/hydrogen cars for shopping/commuting etc, and the petrol engined beast will get wheeled out for special occasions at weekends.
Hopefully they'll still be allowed on public roads. Horses are afterall..
Agree that none of the modern stuff will be as collectible as past models. Complex electricals are not ideally suited for the infrequent use the future will dictate.
take a look at the following comparing lpg to petrol to hydrogen, in this weeks show "Shoot a Hydrogen Tank"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QiD7thxC9UQ
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QiD7thxC9UQ
a8hex said:
While the term "supercar" might not have be used before the Lamborghini Miura, supercars have really always existed.
What I mean is that 'supercars' were always rare, and there weren't many different examples. the 'supercar' genre hadn't been invented.These days seemingly every manufacturer makes a 'super' car, and thanks to cheap finance (and often a strange set of priorities), they are more accessible to the mainstream buyer than ever they were.
Let's not all be too miserable. 
I think people are spot on that production volumes play a vital part. But, they weren't shy of churning out the Etypes so of something is desirable it will find value.
While initially I agree that all the modern electronics are a drag I take the view that I am looking at this from the eyes of someone too old. Views evolve. Look at the Saxo scene etc where it is 100% about electronics. It's not just the collectibles that evolve but also the collectors.
Why would tomorrow's collectors want to lift the bonnet of their classic car? Surely owning a classic car is about harking back to an older era most conventionally that of your childhood. So future collectors will be harking back to the 90s etc to an era when no one lifted the bonnet of a car. Classics won't be all about fettling mechanically like it is for us now as we hark back to our mechanical childhoods.
As for what cars today will become classics, I think we have got it all wrong to try and apply our logic and desires as filters to try and pick those cars. We need to apply filters that come from the minds and desires of our children and grand children.
For all we know the biggest classic scene of the future could be based around Bentley Continentals where the scene is about dressing up as a Northern sofa salesman or footballer at the weekend meets and trying to get the largest amount of product in your hair.
The simple fact is that the scene will evolve if it is not already and we will all be sitting there wondering what has gone wrong with society.
I think people are spot on that production volumes play a vital part. But, they weren't shy of churning out the Etypes so of something is desirable it will find value.
While initially I agree that all the modern electronics are a drag I take the view that I am looking at this from the eyes of someone too old. Views evolve. Look at the Saxo scene etc where it is 100% about electronics. It's not just the collectibles that evolve but also the collectors.
Why would tomorrow's collectors want to lift the bonnet of their classic car? Surely owning a classic car is about harking back to an older era most conventionally that of your childhood. So future collectors will be harking back to the 90s etc to an era when no one lifted the bonnet of a car. Classics won't be all about fettling mechanically like it is for us now as we hark back to our mechanical childhoods.
As for what cars today will become classics, I think we have got it all wrong to try and apply our logic and desires as filters to try and pick those cars. We need to apply filters that come from the minds and desires of our children and grand children.
For all we know the biggest classic scene of the future could be based around Bentley Continentals where the scene is about dressing up as a Northern sofa salesman or footballer at the weekend meets and trying to get the largest amount of product in your hair.
The simple fact is that the scene will evolve if it is not already and we will all be sitting there wondering what has gone wrong with society.
If its a speculation question then I wouldnt take the risk, there are better ways of investing, nothing spikes more than cars, wine (already hurting people) and art in the panacea of speculative investments.
If its a question of what car can I buy where I will see some value appreciataion and enjoyment (more importantly) then go with the tried and tested marques that fit your budget. Theres loads with continued implicit desirability from 5K to 500K.
If its a question of what car can I buy where I will see some value appreciataion and enjoyment (more importantly) then go with the tried and tested marques that fit your budget. Theres loads with continued implicit desirability from 5K to 500K.
I wouldn't look past the usual suspects from the mid 80s to the mid 90s for that generation.
Namely XJ220, 959, McLaren F1, 288GTO, F40 and F50. All top of the tree super cars that can actually be used on the road. Also all very rare with the solitary exception of the F40, but that one seems to have a larger fan base than the other Ferraris.
I am already too old to comment on the future desirability of the current crop of super cars though.
Namely XJ220, 959, McLaren F1, 288GTO, F40 and F50. All top of the tree super cars that can actually be used on the road. Also all very rare with the solitary exception of the F40, but that one seems to have a larger fan base than the other Ferraris.
I am already too old to comment on the future desirability of the current crop of super cars though.
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