Sydney property bubble?
Discussion
Hate to be terribly British and talk about house prices but feck me places in Sydney are expensive!
I know that the economy is strong and that Sydney is a 'world class city' but the prices do point to an over-extended market with the ususal issues for first time buyers that usually bring things to a halt.
With the first glimmers of economic slowdown is it time for a correction?
I know that the economy is strong and that Sydney is a 'world class city' but the prices do point to an over-extended market with the ususal issues for first time buyers that usually bring things to a halt.
With the first glimmers of economic slowdown is it time for a correction?
Oh for a crystal ball, & we'd be rich. Who can really know, but I too would be nervous if stating out today.
Looking at my kids, & a lot of new neighbours in my near city acreage area, I doubt many can afford to sell. They have paid the same cost to build or buy & are locked in.
Things were very similar 20 years ago. Prices had risen rapidly, beyond anything sensible. They did not drop much, if at all. They tended to plateau for quite a while. My present place, remained at the same price, & probably hard to sell for 8 or 10 years.
Suddenly it doubled, & then redoubled over about 3/4 years, & then froze again. Places have started selling again, after about 18 months hiatus, so I guess the marked has accepted the new values.
House & land packages are starting to move around here, at about or just under, existing house prices, so I guess that puts a floor in the market.
Good luck, who needs the excitement of a roller coaster ride, when they can enter the housing market?
Looking at my kids, & a lot of new neighbours in my near city acreage area, I doubt many can afford to sell. They have paid the same cost to build or buy & are locked in.
Things were very similar 20 years ago. Prices had risen rapidly, beyond anything sensible. They did not drop much, if at all. They tended to plateau for quite a while. My present place, remained at the same price, & probably hard to sell for 8 or 10 years.
Suddenly it doubled, & then redoubled over about 3/4 years, & then froze again. Places have started selling again, after about 18 months hiatus, so I guess the marked has accepted the new values.
House & land packages are starting to move around here, at about or just under, existing house prices, so I guess that puts a floor in the market.
Good luck, who needs the excitement of a roller coaster ride, when they can enter the housing market?
I watch this pretty closely given my industry.
The problem is there is a fundamental under supply of housing stock in Sydney. This has big ramifications for affordability.
I've left Sydney for a number if reasons. I'm now livi g 2 hours north and an going to check out a 3 bed 2 bath 2 car penthouse apartment with harbour views for around 380k. This seems more reasonable to me.
The problem is there is a fundamental under supply of housing stock in Sydney. This has big ramifications for affordability.
I've left Sydney for a number if reasons. I'm now livi g 2 hours north and an going to check out a 3 bed 2 bath 2 car penthouse apartment with harbour views for around 380k. This seems more reasonable to me.
Sydney is like the UK was pre 2008. Loads of estate agents and loads of inflated property prices. However economically there's no real indication of cash here running out soon. The country is a net exporter so unless the world collapses property prices will remain high.
Having said that £2m+ prices have softened slightly.
Having said that £2m+ prices have softened slightly.
I work for one of the big four banks and sit near the analysts. They went to a conference with 3 different 'experts' speaking on this subject - each one had a view different than the other.
The common view is:
- buy to invest - no
- buy because you want a home - sure - low rates can negate some of that lack of growth just don't expect to make money for a few years.
The common view is:
- buy to invest - no
- buy because you want a home - sure - low rates can negate some of that lack of growth just don't expect to make money for a few years.
I don't see why people pay too much attention to the current interest rate when buying a house. Interest rates are a bit like Melbourne weather. If you don't like what you've got, wait a few hours, or days.
It is less than 25 years ago, [about the term of the average loan I believe] that I was getting 17% on my money, & well under 20 years ago, I was paying 14%. It really is the average rate you are likely to pay that counts.
I guess a low rate for the first few years might help you get established, but that's not much use if a 2 or 3% rise makes you unable to service the loan.
That sounds a pretty good deal Pommygranite, Newcastle is it? Always liked the place, with port Stephens & the Myall Lakes just a short drive away. To have a pretty fair city, & something as primeval as the Myall river so close must be very rare.
It is less than 25 years ago, [about the term of the average loan I believe] that I was getting 17% on my money, & well under 20 years ago, I was paying 14%. It really is the average rate you are likely to pay that counts.
I guess a low rate for the first few years might help you get established, but that's not much use if a 2 or 3% rise makes you unable to service the loan.
That sounds a pretty good deal Pommygranite, Newcastle is it? Always liked the place, with port Stephens & the Myall Lakes just a short drive away. To have a pretty fair city, & something as primeval as the Myall river so close must be very rare.
Pommygranite said:
I work for one of the big four banks and sit near the analysts. They went to a conference with 3 different 'experts' speaking on this subject - each one had a view different than the other.
The common view is:
- buy to invest - no
- buy because you want a home - sure - low rates can negate some of that lack of growth just don't expect to make money for a few years.
We missed the last boom as had just come to end of undergrad studies (5 year degrees - pah) so maybe we have a chance this time round of getting onto a market that is not in a near vertical rise in prices but somewhat more of a plateau.The common view is:
- buy to invest - no
- buy because you want a home - sure - low rates can negate some of that lack of growth just don't expect to make money for a few years.
We arrived in Sydney yesterday and around where I am staying (Carlingford) there are quite a few with "sold" stickers on the advertising hoardings.
That being said, it seems that some absolute bargains (relatively) for huge places in Dural - the prices do not seem to have changed to the same extent there as elsewhere in Sydney in the 8.5 years that we have been away.
Not seeing many LS400's, E38's, W220's or other "bargain barges" here...*grin*
I've been trying to buy a place just north of the Hunter to set up as a hotel/wedding venue. It's got 14 bedrooms and is proper grand. In Sydney's inner suburbs it would cost $25m or something stupid. I had insurance rebuild valuations come it at $8m.
However, it's a mortgagee (reposessed) property so will probabaly be sold for around $1m and because the area is generaly a low income, regional area no bank will entertain a mortgage on it for more than $750k.
Property value and clearance rates here really do fluctate massively depending on area/suburb/street so you have to do your homework.
However, it's a mortgagee (reposessed) property so will probabaly be sold for around $1m and because the area is generaly a low income, regional area no bank will entertain a mortgage on it for more than $750k.
Property value and clearance rates here really do fluctate massively depending on area/suburb/street so you have to do your homework.
custardtart said:
I've been trying to buy a place just north of the Hunter to set up as a hotel/wedding venue. It's got 14 bedrooms and is proper grand. In Sydney's inner suburbs it would cost $25m or something stupid. I had insurance rebuild valuations come it at $8m.
However, it's a mortgagee (reposessed) property so will probabaly be sold for around $1m and because the area is generaly a low income, regional area no bank will entertain a mortgage on it for more than $750k.
Property value and clearance rates here really do fluctate massively depending on area/suburb/street so you have to do your homework.
Need any planning, landscape, heritage or architectural advice? However, it's a mortgagee (reposessed) property so will probabaly be sold for around $1m and because the area is generaly a low income, regional area no bank will entertain a mortgage on it for more than $750k.
Property value and clearance rates here really do fluctate massively depending on area/suburb/street so you have to do your homework.
Colonial said:
Need any planning, landscape, heritage or architectural advice?
Quite possibly mate, it has DA approval and is a heritage building. Struggling with raising some capital to furnish the place at the moment - 14 bedrooms is a lot of beds, tables, chairs etc.Now if you were planning on getting married, we could maybe do a deal
lolcustardtart said:
Quite possibly mate, it has DA approval and is a heritage building. Struggling with raising some capital to furnish the place at the moment - 14 bedrooms is a lot of beds, tables, chairs etc.
Now if you were planning on getting married, we could maybe do a deal lol
You scratch my back etc Now if you were planning on getting married, we could maybe do a deal
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