RE: Jaguar's fate remains undecided

RE: Jaguar's fate remains undecided

Monday 18th September 2006

Jaguar's fate remains undecided

And Aston Martin deal is ancient history


Critical element: Jaguar XK
Critical element: Jaguar XK
Jaguar's position within Ford remains indeterminate despite rumours that Ford has ruled out selling it, according to the FT.

The Blue Oval has yet to decide Jaguar's fate, reckons the report, saying that Ford described stories about a decision having been made as "premature". Jaguar lost a stonking £426 million in 2004 but insiders at Ford have been encouraged by recent moves to turn that around, according to the FT story. The reception accorded the new XK and XKR will play a large part in that decision.

A decision's likely to be made once Ford's new CEO, Alan Mulally -- who used to head Boeing -- has his feet properly under the table and has scrutinised the figures.

Aston deal a year old

The FT also reports that the decision to sell Aston Martin -- which last year made an undisclosed profit for the first time in 40 years -- was made almost a year ago. It stemmed not so much from the financial problems which Ford was then, as now, grappling, but more from a recognition of two incompatible cultures. One of them makes prestigious exclusive cars, the other cranks out cars by the million.

However, it seems that there won't be a management buy-out. Instead, AM boss Dr Ulrich Bez, who nursed AM into its current, strong position, foresees himself and the existing management team continuing to run the company. It would be owned by an outside investor with Ford and the current management owning minority stakes -- which would provide them with vital votes on the board.

Author
Discussion

Fruitcake

Original Poster:

3,850 posts

233 months

Monday 18th September 2006
quotequote all
You can't help but feel that Jaguar's current state is a lot to do with Ford's greed and Jaguar having a heritage as rich or richer than Aston's.

I feel that Jag was being delibarately hald back so as not to tread on AM's toes when the raft of new cars came out, a la Maserati and Ferrari. If this is the case, then is Ford really the best company to have even a say in Jag's future, as stated in the article?

I think not and to be honest, I would very much like to see Jaguar run totally independently from Ford, finally allowed to fulfil its ambitions as the modern chapter in the leaping cat's history.

Dr S

5,044 posts

233 months

Monday 18th September 2006
quotequote all
Jaguar will need strong ties with at least another manufacturer to be profitable and sustain continued innovation of its model range. Development cost are skyrocketing and no small scale manufacturer can profitably operate without spreading these cost over very large numbers. Hence, Jaguar will inevitably be linked to one large manufacturer one way or the other. Porsche has realised this and invested into a closer relationship with VW.

The one thing that worries me more than Jaguar is actually Aston who produce even smaller numbers. Changing their platforms etc. to conform with a new owner would create such disruption and extra cost that further losses are guaranteed. Who would want to go into such an adventure? The only brand that comes to my mind that would actually fit is BMW. But prrrrlease, keep Mr Bangle to scr*w up family cars and don't let him near an Aston...

NickFRP

5,117 posts

242 months

Monday 18th September 2006
quotequote all
Whats goign on with ford.
i dont understand. From being the biggest car company in the world it been thrown into the red.

do you tihnk that the models haven moved with the times. or the fact that BMW and Mercs are more affordable to the average guy.

I would of thought Astin then Jag would be Ford most profitable?

groomi

9,323 posts

250 months

Monday 18th September 2006
quotequote all
I'd like to know the truth behind the figures which keep being spouted from Ford about how many hundreds of millions of pounds Jaguar is losing while Aston martin make a small profit. Rumour has it, and I wouldn't be at all surprised, that Jaguars figures include all the development costs for much of the shared technology between Jag/Aston & Land Rover. This would seem to make a lot of sense as the Jaguar V8 is modified for both AM and LR and therefore presumably so are a lot of the electronics and ancillaries.

Although Ford have been very good for Jaguar over the past 15 years, I can't help feeling they're being used as a scapegoat at present...

AmericanTVR

36 posts

219 months

Monday 18th September 2006
quotequote all
I too would to see a wealthy enthusiast purchase Jag. Jaguar has so much unfulfilled potential and such a remarkable history. I want to Jaguar live up to it's name and it possible greatnesss. The first change that needs to be made is on the XK, I want a friggin manual. This could kill Jaguar, but I think it is more likely to do great things for the marque.

NDT

1,766 posts

270 months

Tuesday 19th September 2006
quotequote all
groomi said:
I'd like to know the truth behind the figures which keep being spouted from Ford about how many hundreds of millions of pounds Jaguar is losing while Aston martin make a small profit. Rumour has it, and I wouldn't be at all surprised, that Jaguars figures include all the development costs for much of the shared technology between Jag/Aston & Land Rover. This would seem to make a lot of sense as the Jaguar V8 is modified for both AM and LR and therefore presumably so are a lot of the electronics and ancillaries.

Although Ford have been very good for Jaguar over the past 15 years, I can't help feeling they're being used as a scapegoat at present...


I've derived a lot of the figures, and I don't believe that Jaguar is carrying LR's development costs.
The high volume strategy has failed, that's all.
X-types are being discounted like crazy in the US, and offloaded to (for example) Hertz at close to marginal cost.
In addition, Jaguar is carrying a pile of Halewood costs that would be fine if X-type was selling at the original target volumes, but it isn't.

NDT

1,766 posts

270 months

Tuesday 19th September 2006
quotequote all
[quote=Dr S]Jaguar will need strong ties with at least another manufacturer to be profitable and sustain continued innovation of its model range. Development cost are skyrocketing and no small scale manufacturer can profitably operate without spreading these cost over very large numbers. Hence, Jaguar will inevitably be linked to one large manufacturer one way or the other. Porsche has realised this and invested into a closer relationship with VW.
[quote]

I don't agree with your theory.
It depends what type of company Jaguar wants to be. A low volume, premium priced route (no X-type there then) doesn't require a formal relationship with another OEM. VW and Porsche are together mainly because of one shared platform (possibly two when the Panamera come along) and an interest in co-developing the hybrid system.

NDT

1,766 posts

270 months

Tuesday 19th September 2006
quotequote all
Dr S said:
The one thing that worries me more than Jaguar is actually Aston who produce even smaller numbers. Changing their platforms etc. to conform with a new owner would create such disruption and extra cost that further losses are guaranteed.

They don't need to change platforms - they're unique.

beasto

323 posts

221 months

Tuesday 19th September 2006
quotequote all
Problem with Jag for me is that, although I have just turned 60, I still view it as an old man's brand.

The XK is vastly oversized for my taste, the XJ looks like a solicitor's vehicle, S too retro, and the X just not done very well.

Lighter, smaller, nimbler, sexier is my prescription!

fatboy b

9,569 posts

223 months

Tuesday 19th September 2006
quotequote all
NickFRP said:
Whats goign on with ford.
i dont understand. From being the biggest car company in the world it been thrown into the red.

do you tihnk that the models haven moved with the times. or the fact that BMW and Mercs are more affordable to the average guy.

I would of thought Astin then Jag would be Ford most profitable?


Ford never were, or probably never will be the biggest car company in the world. That is currently GM, but soon to be overtaken by Toyota. All the big three in the US are in the red at the moment. They're reeling from years of union dictatorship that has pushed up salaries beyond belief for a production line worker ($100K per year for some). Add to that the cost of healthcare, an unstable business built on large uneconomical pick-ups & SUV's, and then a huge rise in petrol prices, and you have what you have today.

They have been unwilling to change their business model away from large SUV's. Now, because they're in the shit, they have to change. But you can't just swap from SUV's to cars overnight. Ford's car division has lost money for years, having been propped up by the truck (pick-up & SUV) division. Now the truck division is losing money too, that's pushed Ford into the red. GM are also there, but are on the recovery road. DC's Chrysler division is about to go there too, just behind Ford.

cerbman

565 posts

285 months

Wednesday 20th September 2006
quotequote all
Fruitcake said:
You can't help but feel that Jaguar's current state is a lot to do with Ford's greed and Jaguar having a heritage as rich or richer than Aston's.

I feel that Jag was being delibarately hald back so as not to tread on AM's toes when the raft of new cars came out, a la Maserati and Ferrari. If this is the case, then is Ford really the best company to have even a say in Jag's future, as stated in the article?

I think not and to be honest, I would very much like to see Jaguar run totally independently from Ford, finally allowed to fulfil its ambitions as the modern chapter in the leaping cat's history.
One of the best posts I've seen on here.

fatboy b

9,569 posts

223 months

Wednesday 20th September 2006
quotequote all
Los Angeles said:
The general feeling in the States among industry executives is far from its fate undecided, Ford will sell Jaguar as soon as it's stock is raised with a raft of new models. They seem to be trying to hold on to their stake in Mazda because of chassis and parts tie-ups but that too may have to go as sales of Fords keep falling. The only question mark left is Volvo?

Ford have a fine history of making their own cars but tried to emulate GM by being an unbrella company with a dozen marques, a situation bringing down GM too. The decision internally is that Ford should get back to its core business, selling mass market cars and trucks. However, no one is convinced they have the product to entice buyers back in any decent numbers to justify mass volume. In some ways this puts them in the same position as Jaguar but without the badge status.


Without Jag, Land Rover & maybe Volvo, Ford will not have a decent badge to go to the market with. The Ford badge in Europe does not carry the same weight it did in the 70's & 80's. I had numerous Fords in the past, as I actually aspired to own one. Unlike BMW, Audi, VW, Volvo etc Ford never really tried to push the brand upmarket. Instead, they kept it stagnant with rounds of cost cutting that enabled them to be sold as a low-medium market car. As I earned more money, I moved out of the brand. It appears to be the same in the States also. The knock-on effect of doing that for years and years is now becoming apparent.

NDT

1,766 posts

270 months

Thursday 21st September 2006
quotequote all
cerbman said:
Fruitcake said:
You can't help but feel that Jaguar's current state is a lot to do with Ford's greed and Jaguar having a heritage as rich or richer than Aston's.

I feel that Jag was being delibarately hald back so as not to tread on AM's toes when the raft of new cars came out, a la Maserati and Ferrari. If this is the case, then is Ford really the best company to have even a say in Jag's future, as stated in the article?

I think not and to be honest, I would very much like to see Jaguar run totally independently from Ford, finally allowed to fulfil its ambitions as the modern chapter in the leaping cat's history.
One of the best posts I've seen on here.


Don't agree.
If Jaguar has been held back to favour Aston, then please explain the performance, pricing and attractiveness of the (new) XKR relative to the V8 Vantage.

Edited by NDT on Thursday 21st September 04:26

groomi

9,323 posts

250 months

Thursday 21st September 2006
quotequote all
NDT said:
cerbman said:
Fruitcake said:
You can't help but feel that Jaguar's current state is a lot to do with Ford's greed and Jaguar having a heritage as rich or richer than Aston's.

I feel that Jag was being delibarately hald back so as not to tread on AM's toes when the raft of new cars came out, a la Maserati and Ferrari. If this is the case, then is Ford really the best company to have even a say in Jag's future, as stated in the article?

I think not and to be honest, I would very much like to see Jaguar run totally independently from Ford, finally allowed to fulfil its ambitions as the modern chapter in the leaping cat's history.
One of the best posts I've seen on here.


Don't agree.
If Jaguar has been held back to favour Aston, then please explain the performance, pricing and attractiveness of the (new) XKR relative to the V8 Vantage.

Edited by NDT on Thursday 21st September 04:26


It would have 500bhp if Ford didn't own Aston.

NDT

1,766 posts

270 months

Friday 22nd September 2006
quotequote all
groomi said:
NDT said:
cerbman said:
Fruitcake said:
You can't help but feel that Jaguar's current state is a lot to do with Ford's greed and Jaguar having a heritage as rich or richer than Aston's.

I feel that Jag was being delibarately hald back so as not to tread on AM's toes when the raft of new cars came out, a la Maserati and Ferrari. If this is the case, then is Ford really the best company to have even a say in Jag's future, as stated in the article?

I think not and to be honest, I would very much like to see Jaguar run totally independently from Ford, finally allowed to fulfil its ambitions as the modern chapter in the leaping cat's history.
One of the best posts I've seen on here.


Don't agree.
If Jaguar has been held back to favour Aston, then please explain the performance, pricing and attractiveness of the (new) XKR relative to the V8 Vantage.

Edited by NDT on Thursday 21st September 04:26


It would have 500bhp if Ford didn't own Aston.


Nope.
That engine isn't ready for a couple of years. Not to OEM levels of required reliability anyway.

groomi

9,323 posts

250 months

Friday 22nd September 2006
quotequote all
NDT said:
groomi said:
NDT said:
cerbman said:
Fruitcake said:
You can't help but feel that Jaguar's current state is a lot to do with Ford's greed and Jaguar having a heritage as rich or richer than Aston's.

I feel that Jag was being delibarately hald back so as not to tread on AM's toes when the raft of new cars came out, a la Maserati and Ferrari. If this is the case, then is Ford really the best company to have even a say in Jag's future, as stated in the article?

I think not and to be honest, I would very much like to see Jaguar run totally independently from Ford, finally allowed to fulfil its ambitions as the modern chapter in the leaping cat's history.
One of the best posts I've seen on here.


Don't agree.
If Jaguar has been held back to favour Aston, then please explain the performance, pricing and attractiveness of the (new) XKR relative to the V8 Vantage.

Edited by NDT on Thursday 21st September 04:26


It would have 500bhp if Ford didn't own Aston.


Nope.
That engine isn't ready for a couple of years. Not to OEM levels of required reliability anyway.


I'm sure it would be ready b now if they weren't working with their hands tied behind their backs. Tuners have had 450bhp out of the old 4.0L V8 for years and what engine do you think the Aston V8 is based on? scratchchin

GavinPearson

5,715 posts

258 months

Saturday 23rd September 2006
quotequote all
fatboy b said:
Ford never were, or probably never will be the biggest car company in the world. That is currently GM, but soon to be overtaken by Toyota. All the big three in the US are in the red at the moment. They're reeling from years of union dictatorship that has pushed up salaries beyond belief for a production line worker ($100K per year for some). Add to that the cost of healthcare, an unstable business built on large uneconomical pick-ups & SUV's, and then a huge rise in petrol prices, and you have what you have today.

They have been unwilling to change their business model away from large SUV's. Now, because they're in the shit, they have to change. But you can't just swap from SUV's to cars overnight. Ford's car division has lost money for years, having been propped up by the truck (pick-up & SUV) division. Now the truck division is losing money too, that's pushed Ford into the red. GM are also there, but are on the recovery road. DC's Chrysler division is about to go there too, just behind Ford.
The guys on the production line earn about $25 an hour. What you do get though is a few people working as many hours as they can. With the overtime they can make the money.

The reason that the Healthcare is such a big issue in the USA is that many large companies in the US were 'asked' by the government 50 or so years ago to limit wage increases and provide healthcare both in employment and retirement. So that is what they did. However, financial provision for it in retirement was not part of the regulations at the time. Had it been so, and Actuarial projections been accurate, that would not be an issue and the only Healthcare worry would be for present employees, i.e. parity with the competition. Add to that spiraling costs based on expectations of service, life expectancy, Doctors now wishing for Maybachs instead of a plain old S class and you have some idea of the Healthcare problem.

As far as product goes, be mindful that everybody is a genius with hindsight. Ford was the darling of Wall Street when it was making money hand over fist with it's trucks, and any plan to invest significantly in cars at the expense of trucks where they had leadership would have been treated with considerable skepticism.

jazzzyj

2 posts

218 months

Thursday 28th September 2006
quotequote all
I have heard from a little birdy that Jag is going into recievership?
I've got it from good info, but does that sound likely?
-J

DennisTheMenace

15,605 posts

275 months

Thursday 28th September 2006
quotequote all
Dont beleive that one bit .

groomi

9,323 posts

250 months

Thursday 28th September 2006
quotequote all
jazzzyj said:
I have heard from a little birdy that Jag is going into recievership?
I've got it from good info, but does that sound likely?
-J


Worth a lot more to Ford to sell a going concern (not that I think it is) rather than calling in the receivers.

Care to divulge your source?