Russia Invades Ukraine. Volume 5

[sisu]

RabidGranny said:

sisu said:

isaldiri said:

Aren't you slightly conflating different things?

The above per your post are the new EU sanctions regarding EU entities access to the russian central bank's SPFS system plus some stuff targeting LNG facilities. The earlier post had referenced Bank of China (a private company) stopping yuan related transactions and the possible impact of that.

European sanctions cover different aspects, the LNG and the American ones focus on banking, closing the loopholes of just paying money thru a Hong Kong Bank account, to a Kyrgyzstan company that ships it to Russia.

I haven't had enough time to go thru it completely and look at how it effects companies or sectors. But this makes things very poisonous overall. Yes they could do more and they will, but this hit at the moment is heavy as they have no reserves.

sisu speaks the truth. as a swiss working in a town outside zh which is synonymous with global LNG trading , the latest tranche of sanctions have hit hard it appears

Yes don't just take it from us, take it from the First Deputy Chairman of the Bank of Russia - Vladimir Chistyukhin, The Moscow Times reported "Central Bank announced the threat of death to the Russian economy due to sanctions."
https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2024/06/26/v-tsb-zayavi...

For those that don't read Russian...he said..
"What happened to us yesterday, unpopular, I don't know ..swaps including Central Banks, some clearing systems, the use of Crypto everything needs to be tested and tried as quickly as possible. Because if there is no normal payments for products related to foreign activity, for our export and import dependent country, that is simple, its Death"

So lets see how this goes in July.

[AmyRichardson]

pingu393 said:

I conclude from the above, that you believe NATO are to blame, because they didn't allow Ukraine to join.

I wonder if this is what Putin means when he blames NATO?

An interesting argument, and one that I could be persuaded by.

And we can blame Edward Grey for WW1 because he was a bit mealy mouthed. Deploy a selective blindness regarding all the other, keenly bellicose actors and it all hangs together

Had Ukraine been unequivocally western leaning from the get-go and keen to join, as the Baltics were, then it absolutely should have been admitted.

Russian sensitivity? That only exists in regard to the foiling of their hegemonic ambitions. So balls to those sensitivities.

[TGCOTF-dewey]

AlexIT said:

TGCOTF-dewey said:

warp9 said:

US Navy nuclear ballistic missile submarine surfaces off Norway in unusual flex

I'd be surprised if that's an SSBN. I suspect it's one of the boats converted to SSGN role.

Odd decision if it is.

It's said to be USSBN Tennessee

EDIT: Forgot link: https://www.businessinsider.com/us-nuclear-submari...

Odd decision as it's gifting its acoustic signature to Ru.

She's an old boat so maybe not far off end of service.

[Hill92]

TGCOTF-dewey said:

AlexIT said:

TGCOTF-dewey said:

warp9 said:

US Navy nuclear ballistic missile submarine surfaces off Norway in unusual flex

I'd be surprised if that's an SSBN. I suspect it's one of the boats converted to SSGN role.

Odd decision if it is.

It's said to be USSBN Tennessee

EDIT: Forgot link: https://www.businessinsider.com/us-nuclear-submari...

Odd decision as it's gifting its acoustic signature to Ru.

She's an old boat so maybe not far off end of service.

Or they were certain they were no Russian assets in the area.

[vaud]

TGCOTF-dewey said:

Odd decision as it's gifting its acoustic signature to Ru.

I suspect they know them all from whatever their version is of SOSUS, etc

[eharding]

TGCOTF-dewey said:

Odd decision as it's gifting its acoustic signature to Ru.

Or the US Navy might just have though of this, and Tennessee and accompanying vessels are pumping several hundred kilowatts of non-stop Motörhead into the water as well as having a heavily amplified and energetic Mariachi band wearing steel clogs playing in the sub's engine compartment.

[Oilchange]

AmyRichardson said:

Russian sensitivity? That only exists in regard to the foiling of their hegemonic ambitions. So balls to those sensitivities.

Quite so.

[AlexIT]

eharding said:

Or the US Navy might just have though of this, and Tennessee and accompanying vessels are pumping several hundred kilowatts of non-stop Motörhead into the water as well as having a heavily amplified and energetic Mariachi band wearing steel clogs playing in the sub's engine compartment.

I pictured some random russian navy guy at the sonar listening to a Maiachi band and almost spilled the coffee
Hey tovaritsch, the yankees must have put some new screws on their subs

[stemll]

AlexIT said:

eharding said:

Or the US Navy might just have though of this, and Tennessee and accompanying vessels are pumping several hundred kilowatts of non-stop Motörhead into the water as well as having a heavily amplified and energetic Mariachi band wearing steel clogs playing in the sub's engine compartment.

I pictured some random russian navy guy at the sonar listening to a Maiachi band and almost spilled the coffee
Hey tovaritsch, the yankees must have put some new screws on their subs

Like the scene in Red October with Jones and the COB arguing over Paganini/Pavarotti

[crofty1984]

eharding said:

TGCOTF-dewey said:

Odd decision as it's gifting its acoustic signature to Ru.

Or the US Navy might just have though of this, and Tennessee and accompanying vessels are pumping several hundred kilowatts of non-stop Motörhead into the water as well as having a heavily amplified and energetic Mariachi band wearing steel clogs playing in the sub's engine compartment.

Could be an educated risk. You win some, lose some, it's all the same to me.

[Digga]

crofty1984 said:

eharding said:

TGCOTF-dewey said:

Odd decision as it's gifting its acoustic signature to Ru.

Or the US Navy might just have though of this, and Tennessee and accompanying vessels are pumping several hundred kilowatts of non-stop Motörhead into the water as well as having a heavily amplified and energetic Mariachi band wearing steel clogs playing in the sub's engine compartment.

Could be an educated risk. You win some, lose some, it's all the same to me.

This is BIG CHESS.

Edited by Digga on Thursday 27th June 17:45

[MBBlat]

AmyRichardson said:

pingu393 said:

Russia could move it's influence west using honey, but it decides to always use vinegar. Nobody would join NATO unless they felt threatened.

Guess which country is the root cause of NATO's "expansion", Mr Putin? Did your mummy not tell you to play nice, or you won't have any friends?

In a very immediate sense NATO's Eastern Flank did cause *this* conflict.

Neo-Soviet ambition exists regardless of NATO and in the absence of NATO it would have found more outlets, presumably reducing the Eastern Flank to varying stages of Belarusian benightenness. But because of NATO those nations are democratic, prosperous and institutionally robust. In the absence of these outlets neo-Soviet ambition can only be realised through Georgian/Moldovan scraps and... Ukraine.

Most of us guessed that Putin would be patient, awaiting another round of internal Ukrainian tensions to nibble at the East and to push "their guys" in wider Ukrainian politics. Even contrarian shills like Meershiemer guessed at a "machinate and opportune" strategy, and guessed it would be successful. Maybe Putin knew something we didn't, maybe he was less pessimistic about Ukraine than most of the west was, and thought it wasn't for turning.

Edited by AmyRichardson on Thursday 27th June 13:02

Do I recall correctly that when the Berlin Wall fell Poland and Ukraine had roughly equal GDP and standards of living. Poland looked west, Ukraine looked east, guess which one now has the bigger GDP and higher standards of living?

[nikaiyo2]

vaud said:

I suspect they know them all from whatever their version is of SOSUS, etc

I was under the impression that the Ohio subs were virtually undetectable and have only been tracked a handful of times since the 80s.

[pinchmeimdreamin]

nikaiyo2 said:

vaud said:

I suspect they know them all from whatever their version is of SOSUS, etc

I was under the impression that the Ohio subs were virtually undetectable and have only been tracked a handful of times since the 80s.

Apparently they sound like whales humping

[fly by wire]

RabidGranny said:

vaud said:

RabidGranny said:

sisu speaks the truth. as a swiss working in a town outside zh which is synonymous with global LNG trading , the latest tranche of sanctions have hit hard it appears

Zug?

the very one.

Nord Stream base.

[Mannginger]

I'm guessing Zelensky resigned himself to losing Eastern Ukraine and never getting the Crimea back after watching last night's US presidential debate

[crofty1984]

Mannginger said:

I'm guessing Zelensky resigned himself to losing Eastern Ukraine and never getting the Crimea back after watching last night's US presidential debate

What was said?

[cliffords]

Mannginger said:

I'm guessing Zelensky resigned himself to losing Eastern Ukraine and never getting the Crimea back after watching last night's US presidential debate

Absolutely agree. I just wrote on another thread it only needed Biden to loose for Trump to win and that just happened.

[hidetheelephants]

TFG lied continuously, Biden was a bit rubbish; the poster is postulating that TFG wins in November and that Ukraine loses, but neither is axiomatic.

[RabidGranny]

Mannginger said:

I'm guessing Zelensky resigned himself to losing Eastern Ukraine and never getting the Crimea back after watching last night's US presidential debate

yeap. think so too.