Russia Invades Ukraine. Volume 5

Russia Invades Ukraine. Volume 5

Author
Discussion

cptsideways

13,595 posts

255 months

Tuesday 25th June
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I'm still of the thinking a through the back door into Russia and cut off they're lines might be a way to go. I imagine much of inner Russia is fairly undefended in relative terms. I'm sure it's been researched & the way the Wagnerites showed you could just plough on in unhindered pretty much.

I don't know how big the forces would be needed to achieve something like this? but looking at a map it looks an obvious option to me... I'm no military strategist btw & it could lead to a DMZ zone.

BikeBikeBIke

8,476 posts

118 months

Tuesday 25th June
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heisthegaffer

3,471 posts

201 months

Tuesday 25th June
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BikeBikeBIke said:
what are the implications of this, Russia have less options to trade/transact money?

sisu

2,661 posts

176 months

Tuesday 25th June
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heisthegaffer said:
BikeBikeBIke said:
what are the implications of this, Russia have less options to trade/transact money?
What are they going to pay China in? Rupes? Iranian Rial? The Brics group, Russia, NK, Iran, South Africa etc all want to be an alternative to the USD and Euro. But none of them want to receive payments in each others currency.
Ceasing a state bank is nothing new, Germany WW2, Iraq in the gulf war. What is different is they are doing it before the war is over.
The last thing China needs now is to have its ability to trade internationally compromised as Russia in financial terms is the size of Denmark or Florida.
The North Korean trade deal could unleash South Korea into the European theatre and Ukraine. This would be a very, very bad thing for Russia as unlike say asking Britain to build precision artillery it could take 5 years to get stuff as there are no factories, staff in Britain building this at scale. Korea has never stopped, they always assumed Uncle Sam would do what they have done to Ukraine.

So there is already a Hyundai Steel factory building shells for everyone in the world as you can just pay the Koreans to ship you shells instead of making it your own.

EddieSteadyGo

12,363 posts

206 months

Tuesday 25th June
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sisu said:
What are they going to pay China in? Rupes? Iranian Rial? ....
Seems more like a gesture to comply with US sanctions. Suspect it will have minimal impact as they will just route payments via one of the many other alternative banks who aren't applying the restriction.

pingu393

8,178 posts

208 months

Tuesday 25th June
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EddieSteadyGo said:
sisu said:
What are they going to pay China in? Rupes? Iranian Rial? ....
Seems more like a gesture to comply with US sanctions. Suspect it will have minimal impact as they will just route payments via one of the many other alternative banks who aren't applying the restriction.
It all adds to the cost, though.

EddieSteadyGo

12,363 posts

206 months

Tuesday 25th June
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pingu393 said:
It all adds to the cost, though.
I think we need to be realistic. Routing yuan payments via a different bank is a minor inconvenience (at worst).

isaldiri

18,989 posts

171 months

Tuesday 25th June
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EddieSteadyGo said:
Seems more like a gesture to comply with US sanctions. Suspect it will have minimal impact as they will just route payments via one of the many other alternative banks who aren't applying the restriction.
Probably more the larger chinese banks with the most US related exposure are cutting back the 'obvious' trading with russian entities. That dealing has already been shifting from the major chinese banks to the regional ones that would be far less bothered by being frozen out of USD related transactions for a while if I'm not wrong as well.

sisu

2,661 posts

176 months

Wednesday 26th June
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I think this is not as easy as the new package "bans the usage of the System for Transfer of Financial Messages" (SPFS), a tool employed by Russia's Central Bank to help combat existing sanctions. In order to counter malign political and societal influence from Russia, the measure prohibits any political parties, foundations, NGOs, think tanks, or media outlets from receiving funding from Russia and its proxies.
The package also applies targeted measures toward ships involved in the transportation of various Russian goods, as well as more than 60 companies that directly support Russia's military-industrial complex." So if you are HAAS any use robotic machining you are now in trouble, you can't leapfrog thru small banks or countries hence the Chinese banks wanting to avoid Russian rubles or bitcoin. As there is less grey area.

But more cutting is "prohibition for any EU facilities to be involved in the transshipment of Russian liquified natural gas to any third-party countries. It also forbids any new investments or provision of goods toward Russian LNG projects, such as the Arctic LNG 2 and Murmansk LNG."
This cooks any idea that the money will keep on flowing, or that you can just buy parts and ship them via a 3rd country, like say Turkey.

TGCOTF-dewey

5,474 posts

58 months

Wednesday 26th June
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Farage really is an odious human being.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/...

I'd love it if squatters moved into his garden and suggested he should give up half of it for a peaceful coexistence.

isaldiri

18,989 posts

171 months

Wednesday 26th June
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sisu said:
I think this is not as easy as the new package "bans the usage of the System for Transfer of Financial Messages" (SPFS), a tool employed by Russia's Central Bank to help combat existing sanctions. In order to counter malign political and societal influence from Russia, the measure prohibits any political parties, foundations, NGOs, think tanks, or media outlets from receiving funding from Russia and its proxies.
The package also applies targeted measures toward ships involved in the transportation of various Russian goods, as well as more than 60 companies that directly support Russia's military-industrial complex." So if you are HAAS any use robotic machining you are now in trouble, you can't leapfrog thru small banks or countries hence the Chinese banks wanting to avoid Russian rubles or bitcoin. As there is less grey area.

But more cutting is "prohibition for any EU facilities to be involved in the transshipment of Russian liquified natural gas to any third-party countries. It also forbids any new investments or provision of goods toward Russian LNG projects, such as the Arctic LNG 2 and Murmansk LNG."
This cooks any idea that the money will keep on flowing, or that you can just buy parts and ship them via a 3rd country, like say Turkey.
Aren't you slightly conflating different things?

The above per your post are the new EU sanctions regarding EU entities access to the russian central bank's SPFS system plus some stuff targeting LNG facilities. The earlier post had referenced Bank of China (a private company) stopping yuan related transactions and the possible impact of that.

crofty1984

15,993 posts

207 months

Wednesday 26th June
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cliffords said:
spookly said:
AdeTuono said:
spikeyhead said:
Adam. said:
isaldiri said:
Stupid or not, if say Cuba was firing russian supplied missiles at Florida, do you really think the US wouldn't be blaming the russians for the attacks?
Very fair point
Since when is Florida part of Cuba?
Where did he assert that? confused
It's insinuated by the unsaid assumption that Crimea is russian territory. Duh.
insinuated by the unsaid assumption , sounds like something my wife would say
Or almost say.

trickywoo

12,009 posts

233 months

Wednesday 26th June
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I see the ICC have a war crimes warrant on Shoigu and Gerasimov.

Chances of seeing them in The Hague are slim but hopefully it will put some others off getting involved.

hidetheelephants

25,788 posts

196 months

Wednesday 26th June
quotequote all
trickywoo said:
I see the ICC have a war crimes warrant on Shoigu and Gerasimov.

Chances of seeing them in The Hague are slim but hopefully it will put some others off getting involved.
The superyacht vendors will be sad, dacha builders less so.

BikeBikeBIke

8,476 posts

118 months

Wednesday 26th June
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trickywoo said:
I see the ICC have a war crimes warrant on Shoigu and Gerasimov.

Chances of seeing them in The Hague are slim but hopefully it will put some others off getting involved.
Come the revolution they might be very glad of a safe prison cell in civilised Europe.

But its the right thing to do.

Edited by BikeBikeBIke on Wednesday 26th June 20:33

TheJimi

25,179 posts

246 months

Wednesday 26th June
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BikeBikeBIke said:
trickywoo said:
I see the ICC have a war crimes warrant on Shoigu and Gerasimov.

Chances of seeing them in The Hague are slim but hopefully it will put some others off getting involved.
Come the revolution they might be very glad of a safe prison cell in civilised Europe.

But its the right thing to do.

Edited by BikeBikeBIke on Wednesday 26th June 20:33
Right thing to do, aye but also largely a box-ticking exercise. Pretty much meaningless.

BikeBikeBIke

8,476 posts

118 months

Wednesday 26th June
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TheJimi said:
Right thing to do, aye but also largely a box-ticking exercise. Pretty much meaningless.
The value is explained here:

https://www.usip.org/publications/2023/03/how-iccs...

borcy

3,414 posts

59 months

Wednesday 26th June
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https://www.kyivpost.com/post/34893


Suggested that NK troops are going to support Russia in Ukraine.

BikeBikeBIke

8,476 posts

118 months

Wednesday 26th June
quotequote all
TheJimi said:
Right thing to do, aye but also largely a box-ticking exercise. Pretty much meaningless.
The value is explained here:

https://www.usip.org/publications/2023/03/how-iccs...

hidetheelephants

25,788 posts

196 months

Wednesday 26th June
quotequote all
borcy said:
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/34893


Suggested that NK troops are going to support Russia in Ukraine.
When they inevitably end up as POWs, after a suitable period of enlightenment they could be allowed to go home and spread the news of how amazeballs DPRK ammunition is, then foment a revolution. They'd probably be murdered as soon as they got to Pyongyang though.